Wazua
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Thoughts on TPS Serena
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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Plimsoul wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:shiznit wrote:INTERNATIONAL CHAINS TO OPEN 16 NEW HOTELS IN KENYA BY 2020With the seeming resurgence of tourism in Kenya, lessened security threats at the coast, investor confidence seems to be growing. Is there underutilised potential in the market, or are investors taking advantage of the slump to buy in when low? Also, TPS is only focused on renovations of existing facilities in Kenya, last I checked. With these new entrants, will there be enough for all to go around?  I prefer a management that expands cautiously. TPSEA should not take on debt that it will have trouble servicing. The "foreign" firms do not own but lease/manage the facilities, many of which are owned by shady folks, and TPSEA should look at that model too in Nairobi for a 2nd facility. I think a lot of the new players are targeting business travellers and conferences, etc which are a bit less sensitive to security threats than tourists. Anyone building new lodges or beach hotels? My take is that when some of these "new" players run into problems [as inevitably happens in a crowded market] TPSEA should use its clout/reputation to take over one in Westlands or Karen. Maybe even Upper Hill. For now, I support the Management's decision to expand the current facility. It's close enough to CBD without being in the CBD. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Plimsoul wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:shiznit wrote:INTERNATIONAL CHAINS TO OPEN 16 NEW HOTELS IN KENYA BY 2020With the seeming resurgence of tourism in Kenya, lessened security threats at the coast, investor confidence seems to be growing. Is there underutilised potential in the market, or are investors taking advantage of the slump to buy in when low? Also, TPS is only focused on renovations of existing facilities in Kenya, last I checked. With these new entrants, will there be enough for all to go around? I prefer a management that expands cautiously. TPSEA should not take on debt that it will have trouble servicing. The "foreign" firms do not own but lease/manage the facilities, many of which are owned by shady folks, and TPSEA should look at that model too in Nairobi for a 2nd facility. I think a lot of the new players are targeting business travellers and conferences, etc which are a bit less sensitive to security threats than tourists. Anyone building new lodges or beach hotels? My take is that when some of these "new" players run into problems [as inevitably happens in a crowded market] TPSEA should use its clout/reputation to take over one in Westlands or Karen. Maybe even Upper Hill. For now, I support the Management's decision to expand the current facility. It's close enough to CBD without being in the CBD. Danger of TPS being run over by new entrants/competition . so far they have failed to handle the likes of Kempinski and Hemingways which are operating in their space. Radisson Blue, Hilton, Crown, Royal Orchid coming in.. TPS might pay the price for complacency. Serena Nairobi banqueting capacity is still very low at 140. Compared to Nairobi Sarova Panafric (350) and Sankara garden (500) they are behind schedule in numbers. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Plimsoul wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:shiznit wrote:INTERNATIONAL CHAINS TO OPEN 16 NEW HOTELS IN KENYA BY 2020With the seeming resurgence of tourism in Kenya, lessened security threats at the coast, investor confidence seems to be growing. Is there underutilised potential in the market, or are investors taking advantage of the slump to buy in when low? Also, TPS is only focused on renovations of existing facilities in Kenya, last I checked. With these new entrants, will there be enough for all to go around? I prefer a management that expands cautiously. TPSEA should not take on debt that it will have trouble servicing. The "foreign" firms do not own but lease/manage the facilities, many of which are owned by shady folks, and TPSEA should look at that model too in Nairobi for a 2nd facility. I think a lot of the new players are targeting business travellers and conferences, etc which are a bit less sensitive to security threats than tourists. Anyone building new lodges or beach hotels? My take is that when some of these "new" players run into problems [as inevitably happens in a crowded market] TPSEA should use its clout/reputation to take over one in Westlands or Karen. Maybe even Upper Hill. For now, I support the Management's decision to expand the current facility. It's close enough to CBD without being in the CBD. Danger of TPS being run over by new entrants/competition . so far they have failed to handle the likes of Kempinski and Hemingways which are operating in their space. Radisson Blue, Hilton, Crown, Royal Orchid coming in.. TPS might pay the price for complacency. Serena Nairobi banqueting capacity is still very low at 140. Compared to Nairobi Sarova Panafric (350) and Sankara garden (500) they are behind schedule in numbers. Agreed. Hence the need for the ongoing expansion. What I recall is that the management said that the open parking lot would be built over and they would put offices, a conference room and possibly rooms overlooking Uhuru Park. Away from Serena Nairobi, they need ANOTHER hotel within Nairobi. I believe they should be in Westlands or Upper Hill/Ngong Road. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Plimsoul wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:shiznit wrote:INTERNATIONAL CHAINS TO OPEN 16 NEW HOTELS IN KENYA BY 2020With the seeming resurgence of tourism in Kenya, lessened security threats at the coast, investor confidence seems to be growing. Is there underutilised potential in the market, or are investors taking advantage of the slump to buy in when low? Also, TPS is only focused on renovations of existing facilities in Kenya, last I checked. With these new entrants, will there be enough for all to go around? I prefer a management that expands cautiously. TPSEA should not take on debt that it will have trouble servicing. The "foreign" firms do not own but lease/manage the facilities, many of which are owned by shady folks, and TPSEA should look at that model too in Nairobi for a 2nd facility. I think a lot of the new players are targeting business travellers and conferences, etc which are a bit less sensitive to security threats than tourists. Anyone building new lodges or beach hotels? My take is that when some of these "new" players run into problems [as inevitably happens in a crowded market] TPSEA should use its clout/reputation to take over one in Westlands or Karen. Maybe even Upper Hill. For now, I support the Management's decision to expand the current facility. It's close enough to CBD without being in the CBD. Danger of TPS being run over by new entrants/competition . so far they have failed to handle the likes of Kempinski and Hemingways which are operating in their space. Radisson Blue, Hilton, Crown, Royal Orchid coming in.. TPS might pay the price for complacency. Serena Nairobi banqueting capacity is still very low at 140. Compared to Nairobi Sarova Panafric (350) and Sankara garden (500) they are behind schedule in numbers. The mere fact that most delegates of TICAD,UNCTAD, Obama summit and all other conferences held in Niarobi recently chose akina Sankara, Kempinski leaves a lot to be desired Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/1/2010 Posts: 272 Location: Nairobi
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Fyatu wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Plimsoul wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:shiznit wrote:INTERNATIONAL CHAINS TO OPEN 16 NEW HOTELS IN KENYA BY 2020With the seeming resurgence of tourism in Kenya, lessened security threats at the coast, investor confidence seems to be growing. Is there underutilised potential in the market, or are investors taking advantage of the slump to buy in when low? Also, TPS is only focused on renovations of existing facilities in Kenya, last I checked. With these new entrants, will there be enough for all to go around? I prefer a management that expands cautiously. TPSEA should not take on debt that it will have trouble servicing. The "foreign" firms do not own but lease/manage the facilities, many of which are owned by shady folks, and TPSEA should look at that model too in Nairobi for a 2nd facility. I think a lot of the new players are targeting business travellers and conferences, etc which are a bit less sensitive to security threats than tourists. Anyone building new lodges or beach hotels? My take is that when some of these "new" players run into problems [as inevitably happens in a crowded market] TPSEA should use its clout/reputation to take over one in Westlands or Karen. Maybe even Upper Hill. For now, I support the Management's decision to expand the current facility. It's close enough to CBD without being in the CBD. Danger of TPS being run over by new entrants/competition . so far they have failed to handle the likes of Kempinski and Hemingways which are operating in their space. Radisson Blue, Hilton, Crown, Royal Orchid coming in.. TPS might pay the price for complacency. Serena Nairobi banqueting capacity is still very low at 140. Compared to Nairobi Sarova Panafric (350) and Sankara garden (500) they are behind schedule in numbers. The mere fact that most delegates of TICAD,UNCTAD, Obama summit and all other conferences held in Niarobi recently chose akina Sankara, Kempinski leaves a lot to be desired All hotels of note within close radius of the CBD were fully booked. The harder you work, the luckier you get
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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kryptonite wrote:Fyatu wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Plimsoul wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:shiznit wrote:INTERNATIONAL CHAINS TO OPEN 16 NEW HOTELS IN KENYA BY 2020With the seeming resurgence of tourism in Kenya, lessened security threats at the coast, investor confidence seems to be growing. Is there underutilised potential in the market, or are investors taking advantage of the slump to buy in when low? Also, TPS is only focused on renovations of existing facilities in Kenya, last I checked. With these new entrants, will there be enough for all to go around? I prefer a management that expands cautiously. TPSEA should not take on debt that it will have trouble servicing. The "foreign" firms do not own but lease/manage the facilities, many of which are owned by shady folks, and TPSEA should look at that model too in Nairobi for a 2nd facility. I think a lot of the new players are targeting business travellers and conferences, etc which are a bit less sensitive to security threats than tourists. Anyone building new lodges or beach hotels? My take is that when some of these "new" players run into problems [as inevitably happens in a crowded market] TPSEA should use its clout/reputation to take over one in Westlands or Karen. Maybe even Upper Hill. For now, I support the Management's decision to expand the current facility. It's close enough to CBD without being in the CBD. Danger of TPS being run over by new entrants/competition . so far they have failed to handle the likes of Kempinski and Hemingways which are operating in their space. Radisson Blue, Hilton, Crown, Royal Orchid coming in.. TPS might pay the price for complacency. Serena Nairobi banqueting capacity is still very low at 140. Compared to Nairobi Sarova Panafric (350) and Sankara garden (500) they are behind schedule in numbers. The mere fact that most delegates of TICAD,UNCTAD, Obama summit and all other conferences held in Niarobi recently chose akina Sankara, Kempinski leaves a lot to be desired All hotels of note within close radius of the CBD were fully booked. Me thinks Serena should divest from lodges, invest in more Meetings Incentives Conferences and Exhibitions (MICE) capacity in Nairobi and major towns. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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Wajenge mahoteli zingine. Mimi ntaenda kula nyama huko Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:kryptonite wrote:Fyatu wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Plimsoul wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:shiznit wrote:INTERNATIONAL CHAINS TO OPEN 16 NEW HOTELS IN KENYA BY 2020With the seeming resurgence of tourism in Kenya, lessened security threats at the coast, investor confidence seems to be growing. Is there underutilised potential in the market, or are investors taking advantage of the slump to buy in when low? Also, TPS is only focused on renovations of existing facilities in Kenya, last I checked. With these new entrants, will there be enough for all to go around? I prefer a management that expands cautiously. TPSEA should not take on debt that it will have trouble servicing. The "foreign" firms do not own but lease/manage the facilities, many of which are owned by shady folks, and TPSEA should look at that model too in Nairobi for a 2nd facility. I think a lot of the new players are targeting business travellers and conferences, etc which are a bit less sensitive to security threats than tourists. Anyone building new lodges or beach hotels? My take is that when some of these "new" players run into problems [as inevitably happens in a crowded market] TPSEA should use its clout/reputation to take over one in Westlands or Karen. Maybe even Upper Hill. For now, I support the Management's decision to expand the current facility. It's close enough to CBD without being in the CBD. Danger of TPS being run over by new entrants/competition . so far they have failed to handle the likes of Kempinski and Hemingways which are operating in their space. Radisson Blue, Hilton, Crown, Royal Orchid coming in.. TPS might pay the price for complacency. Serena Nairobi banqueting capacity is still very low at 140. Compared to Nairobi Sarova Panafric (350) and Sankara garden (500) they are behind schedule in numbers. The mere fact that most delegates of TICAD,UNCTAD, Obama summit and all other conferences held in Niarobi recently chose akina Sankara, Kempinski leaves a lot to be desired All hotels of note within close radius of the CBD were fully booked. Me thinks Serena should divest from lodges, invest in more Meetings Incentives Conferences and Exhibitions (MICE) capacity in Nairobi and major towns. Serena leases, not owns, most of the lodges. It is a "full-service" firm i.e. the whole package from beach hotels, safari hotels to city hotels. Just MICE sounds nice until there's a downturn like happened during PEV 2008 though Serena benefitted coz Kofi and team stayed there. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 834 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:@Aguy - I am increasing my position slowly. Are you? I like their management over the years even during tough times. Scarce offers at 17 though. @Aguy and VVS, i salute you guys. 100% return in one year! When many people including me did not even give TPS a second look. Impressive
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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heri wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@Aguy - I am increasing my position slowly. Are you? I like their management over the years even during tough times. Scarce offers at 17 though. @Aguy and VVS, i salute you guys. 100% return in one year! When many people including me did not even give TPS a second look. Impressive Asante. I wish I had bought more but... I like TPSEA coz of the solid management, brand name and steady expansion. There's debt but TPSEA has managed to manage the debt and has substantial income in forex. Quality Management. Depressed share price [IMHO] for the wrong reasons looked at in the medium-long term. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:kimanimsc wrote:CourtesyHY 2016 Sales 2.656219b vs. 2.671950b -0.589% Profit before interest, depreciation and taxation 170.411m vs. 182.432m -6.589% Net interest cost [54.781m] vs. [108.005m] -49.279% Depreciation on property, plant and equipment [189.786m] vs. [213.881m] -11.266% Loss before income tax [74.156m] vs. [139.454m] -46.824% Loss after taxation [57.627m] vs. [97.284m] -40.764% Loss attributable to equity holders of the company [77.593m] vs. [112.010m] -30.727% EPS [0.43] vs. [0.61] -29.508% Currency translation differences [56.461m] vs. [358.713m] -84.260% Equity 9.571263b vs. 9.956492b -3.869% Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 12.647m vs. [318.273m] +103.974% This company has had a rough time, the sector is brutal, so too have the shareholders. Lets see how peak season turns out. But at 18 its going at a throw away price. Management is pushing for a rebound towards Q4 2016. with july - october peak season key to this. @Aguytrying ftgh which posted better results is trading at 4 bob why recommend people to throw away 18 bob at this loss making entity? 18 months later it is at 35/- ... and I expect a good FY 2018 though FY 2017 was challenging given our politics. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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nzalela wrote:I love how the market brings out divergent thoughts. One man's meat is another man's poison. Well I am buying loads of this one every month till i hit my maximum exposure. It is actually one of the stocks that I am really confident in, I wouldn't loose sleep even when it goes to single digits as some may prophesy.  The payoff ;-) and I expect even more as Serena Nairobi gets ready after the expansion! http://www.chwezitravell...eastern-africa-in-2018/
Plus Serena/TPSEA has other properties in EAC and Tanzania (GDP growth) is expected to grow faster than KE in 2018. It's not all rosy but it has a solid reputation. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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VituVingiSana wrote:heri wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@Aguy - I am increasing my position slowly. Are you? I like their management over the years even during tough times. Scarce offers at 17 though. @Aguy and VVS, i salute you guys. 100% return in one year! When many people including me did not even give TPS a second look. Impressive Asante. I wish I had bought more but... I like TPSEA coz of the solid management, brand name and steady expansion. There's debt but TPSEA has managed to manage the debt and has substantial income in forex. Quality Management. Depressed share price [IMHO] for the wrong reasons looked at in the medium-long term. Waiting for the 40s I make my exit then scout for the next re-loading period. Nice ride. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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37 and counting. That said, I am not a seller at this price. I remain optimistic that TPS/Serena will continue growing its portfolio over time in a slow but steady manner while keeping debt under control. TPS has borrowed to expand Nairobi Serena but the expansion was long overdue and should generate enough - ceteris paribus - cashflow to cover debt payments. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,997 Location: Kitale
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VituVingiSana wrote:37 and counting. That said, I am not a seller at this price. I remain optimistic that TPS/Serena will continue growing its portfolio over time in a slow but steady manner while keeping debt under control.
TPS has borrowed to expand Nairobi Serena but the expansion was long overdue and should generate enough - ceteris paribus - cashflow to cover debt payments. Whats your current ABP? Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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Ebenyo wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:37 and counting. That said, I am not a seller at this price. I remain optimistic that TPS/Serena will continue growing its portfolio over time in a slow but steady manner while keeping debt under control.
TPS has borrowed to expand Nairobi Serena but the expansion was long overdue and should generate enough - ceteris paribus - cashflow to cover debt payments. Whats your current ABP? I don't bother with "Average Buying Price" since it matters little. You should look at a price point and make a decision at that price point. If one looked at ABP [eg 5/-] for Safaricom and sold at 10/- coz it was up 100% without considering what the performance and future of Safaricom is then what's the point of analysis? Therefore, what matters to me is whether TPS at 37 is undervalued, fair or overvalued regardless of my ABP. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:heri wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@Aguy - I am increasing my position slowly. Are you? I like their management over the years even during tough times. Scarce offers at 17 though. @Aguy and VVS, i salute you guys. 100% return in one year! When many people including me did not even give TPS a second look. Impressive Asante. I wish I had bought more but... I like TPSEA coz of the solid management, brand name and steady expansion. There's debt but TPSEA has managed to manage the debt and has substantial income in forex. Quality Management. Depressed share price [IMHO] for the wrong reasons looked at in the medium-long term. congrats comrade @VVS! This share and KK have turned me into a real long term investor! Im happy yet not suprised when i see it at 36.00. I bought large chunks especially below 20.00 over a period of >3 years (seemed like an eternity) coz i trusted in the management. Management, management, management. The other factors that are controllable will take care of themselves The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:37 and counting. That said, I am not a seller at this price. I remain optimistic that TPS/Serena will continue growing its portfolio over time in a slow but steady manner while keeping debt under control.
TPS has borrowed to expand Nairobi Serena but the expansion was long overdue and should generate enough - ceteris paribus - cashflow to cover debt payments. Neither am I. There's a comfort in holding a stock with good management and prospects that is hard to explain. This turnaround started when the al shabaab threats were neutralised, the price was still low then and for a long time after that. The rise was then inevitable. With less politics and emphasis on tourism (given the country's debt and forex situation- it needs all the foreign exchange it can get, i hope the gov sees that) the glory days of TPS may be back. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:37 and counting. That said, I am not a seller at this price. I remain optimistic that TPS/Serena will continue growing its portfolio over time in a slow but steady manner while keeping debt under control.
TPS has borrowed to expand Nairobi Serena but the expansion was long overdue and should generate enough - ceteris paribus - cashflow to cover debt payments. Neither am I. There's a comfort in holding a stock with good management and prospects that is hard to explain. This turnaround started when the al shabaab threats were neutralised, the price was still low then and for a long time after that. The rise was then inevitable. With less politics and emphasis on tourism (given the country's debt and forex situation- it needs all the foreign exchange it can get, i hope the gov sees that) the glory days of TPS may be back. A major consideration is the SLOW and STEADY expansion in services/revenues/facilities, etc without taking on a huge amount of debt (vs revenue/assets/profits)... I believe the hospitality sector will grow BUT in the face of competition TPS needs to be ready to: 1) Take on new properties, in Nairobi, under a franchise model esp in Westlands, Runda or Karen. At the coast, in Diani, Nyali or Mombasa's CBD/Kizingo. 2) Keep on expanding regionally. 3) Operate some 3 & 4-star ("Serena-Lite") locations using a different brand but using the buying power and management skills from larger properties. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,997 Location: Kitale
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Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:37 and counting. That said, I am not a seller at this price. I remain optimistic that TPS/Serena will continue growing its portfolio over time in a slow but steady manner while keeping debt under control.
TPS has borrowed to expand Nairobi Serena but the expansion was long overdue and should generate enough - ceteris paribus - cashflow to cover debt payments. Neither am I. There's a comfort in holding a stock with good management and prospects that is hard to explain. This turnaround started when the al shabaab threats were neutralised, the price was still low then and for a long time after that. The rise was then inevitable. With less politics and emphasis on tourism (given the country's debt and forex situation- it needs all the foreign exchange it can get, i hope the gov sees that) the glory days of TPS may be back. Your thoughts are good. But i feel its good as long term investors to know how our investments are doing. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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