Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,906
|
Considering the 'matatu culture' of recent IPOs at the exchange, the only thing to watch for is the 'exuberant' pre-listing peak in profits 
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,906
|
Herewith the digital prospectus for NSE IPO  Offer pice 9.50 Offer closes 12-Aug-14 Results announced 03-Sep Commencment of trading 09-Sep NAV 5.68 Trailing P/E 4.66 Dividend payout ratio 18.6% Market Capitalisation 1.2bn
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 11/1/2013 Posts: 257
|
NSE is offloading only 66,000,000 shares at 9.50,the minimum shares one can purchase is 500 shares at 4750Kshs,. The 66m shares representing 34% is a constricted number and i see some institutional investors taking positions and wanting to increase their stake immediately after listing of this brokers club business on Sept 9th. i wont be left out on this one No diagnosis,no pragnosis,no pragnosis no profit......Jesse livermore
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
|
@muganda. thanks. time to dig in with the real thing The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
|
Aguytrying wrote:@muganda. thanks. time to dig in with the real thing
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
|
Aguytrying wrote:http://www.businessdailyafrica....0/-/tmc8kyz/-/index.htmlhttp://www.standardmedia.co.ke/...ring-at-sh9-50-per-shareOn post #20 i used 212,500,000 shares. My source was the annual report. Ive changed this to reflect the 194,600,000 that will be issued and fully paid for post the offer. Im using 194,600,000 as the shares for all calculations. And IPO price at 9.50 FY 2013. PAT- kshs 262.26 million EPS- 1.35 P/E- 7.04 NAV- 3.76 P/B- 2.52 FY 2012. PAT- Kshs 84.8 million EPS- 0.45 PE- 21.34 NAV- 2.53 P/B- 3.75 Im now wondering how they got from 212,500,000 to 194,600,000 shares.I think this one will rock, what do others feel?? @Aguy, the 212,500,000 are the authorised shares while the 194,625,000 will be the issued and fully paid up shares following the IPO. Am finding sentiments favouring this IPO. The 4 months performance to 30th April 2014 have a PAT of Kes. 59.359M which when annualized is Kes. 178.077M, EPS Kes. 0.91, P/E 10.38X. That annualized PAT is a 32% y/y decline and hence calling for a profit warning which the market may not like. However, if you ask me, this will be a good performance considering the one off bad debt recovery in 2013 and everything. I may speculate.
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
hisah wrote:At the moment I'm just wondering if this IPO is to test the waters to see if IPOs can make a comeback. The market is still anti-IPOs after wanjikus got killed by mpesa bank's mega IPO. Then coop bank IPO then britak IPO which all sunk hard post listing. The rate at which wanjikus have also sold out of mpesa bank during GFC then 2011 and now shows that anti-IPO sentiment is still strong.
So for institutionals this is still a good time to accumulate the IPO weakness until the herd comes rushing back as IPOs once again become the hottest thing in town.
#MarketMaking101 My sentiment has been confirmed. The sale targets wanjiku with a min of 500 shares @9.50
IPO sale loot to pay off mortgage and upgrade IT systems.
And with that I'm no longer interested. Not a buy for me. Can't waste time chasing this with wanjikus and can't dish out my cash to pay someone's mortgage and IT systems.
@mweke - profit warning definitely will arise. Rights will be postponed as well as IPOs/listings as the market bends lower led by mpesa bank... Unless liquidity is pumped into the market soon, NSE20 bias is downwards fundies and cartoons to boot.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
|
im definitely putting something small into this one! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,906
|
Just heard CEO of the NSE and Aly-Khan Satchu on Nation FM trying to market the IPO. At its price point, there was some sort to target the masses.
It dawns on me there are much easier ways for mwenyenchi to make money than investing in the NSE - it is too technical and punishes ignorance very mercilessly.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 10/11/2009 Posts: 1,223
|
anyone seen the information memorandum? History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
|
hisah wrote:hisah wrote:At the moment I'm just wondering if this IPO is to test the waters to see if IPOs can make a comeback. The market is still anti-IPOs after wanjikus got killed by mpesa bank's mega IPO. Then coop bank IPO then britak IPO which all sunk hard post listing. The rate at which wanjikus have also sold out of mpesa bank during GFC then 2011 and now shows that anti-IPO sentiment is still strong.
So for institutionals this is still a good time to accumulate the IPO weakness until the herd comes rushing back as IPOs once again become the hottest thing in town.
#MarketMaking101 My sentiment has been confirmed. The sale targets wanjiku with a min of 500 shares @9.50
IPO sale loot to pay off mortgage and upgrade IT systems.
And with that I'm no longer interested. Not a buy for me. Can't waste time chasing this with wanjikus and can't dish out my cash to pay someone's mortgage and IT systems.
@mweke - profit warning definitely will arise. Rights will be postponed as well as IPOs/listings as the market bends lower led by mpesa bank... Unless liquidity is pumped into the market soon, NSE20 bias is downwards fundies and cartoons to boot.
Measly shares on offer but no doubt some investors will feel privileged to be members of the "exclusive club". I suspect the share will be oversubscribed, even rise steeply after IPO then the reality will set in, like what happened with Home Afrika and Neverready. Life is short. Live passionately.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,187 Location: nairobi
|
My feeling is also that it will be oversubscribed and you wont get fully what you apply for except the minimum share amount applicants.the future of the nse is almost guaranteed. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
|
BGL wrote:anyone seen the information memorandum? Link ---> https://www.nse.co.ke/nseipo/NSE-Web-Prospectus-2014.pdf
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
|
@sparkly. sometimes I read your posts and think I'm the one who wrote them! those are my precise thoughts. I think I can flip this one. Diamond trust bank is currently raising 3.6 effortlessly. this is raising around 600m. it may rally for a while before it cools down The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
|
mlennyma wrote:My feeling is also that it will be oversubscribed and you wont get fully what you apply for except the minimum share amount applicants.the future of the nse is almost guaranteed. let's hope ppl can get more than they applied for. Nse has a way to go its still growing. imagine JSE making 3.5b kshs PAT, means it's not a bad time to get it.....especially after the initial excitement, for a long hold The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
|
Aguytrying wrote:@sparkly. sometimes I read your posts and think I'm the one who wrote them! those are my precise thoughts. I think I can flip this one.
Diamond trust bank is currently raising 3.6 effortlessly. this is raising around 600m. it may rally for a while before it cools down Question is whether to buy pre or post...then there is the small matter of refunds hope it will be handled efficiently. possunt quia posse videntur
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
|
maka wrote:Aguytrying wrote:@sparkly. sometimes I read your posts and think I'm the one who wrote them! those are my precise thoughts. I think I can flip this one.
Diamond trust bank is currently raising 3.6 effortlessly. this is raising around 600m. it may rally for a while before it cools down Question is whether to buy pre or post...then there is the small matter of refunds hope it will be handled efficiently. buy pre. rally wazimu, uzia kamtu. wait on the sidelines buy back for good when soberness returns. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
|
Aguytrying wrote:maka wrote:Aguytrying wrote:@sparkly. sometimes I read your posts and think I'm the one who wrote them! those are my precise thoughts. I think I can flip this one.
Diamond trust bank is currently raising 3.6 effortlessly. this is raising around 600m. it may rally for a while before it cools down Question is whether to buy pre or post...then there is the small matter of refunds hope it will be handled efficiently. buy pre. rally wazimu, uzia kamtu. wait on the sidelines buy back for good when soberness returns. Brings fond memories of Kengen...Those were nice days.  possunt quia posse videntur
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 5/9/2014 Posts: 130 Location: Nairobi
|
I don't think they would mishandle the refunds should need be especially as they are expected to lead by example otherwise investor confidence would be shattered.
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 5/6/2014 Posts: 268 Location: Nairobi, Kenya
|
maka wrote:Aguytrying wrote:maka wrote:Aguytrying wrote:@sparkly. sometimes I read your posts and think I'm the one who wrote them! those are my precise thoughts. I think I can flip this one.
Diamond trust bank is currently raising 3.6 effortlessly. this is raising around 600m. it may rally for a while before it cools down Question is whether to buy pre or post...then there is the small matter of refunds hope it will be handled efficiently. buy pre. rally wazimu, uzia kamtu. wait on the sidelines buy back for good when soberness returns. Brings fond memories of Kengen...Those were nice days. And NSE chairman is former Kengen CEO
|
|
|
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|