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S.Mutaga III
#41 Posted : Tuesday, July 29, 2014 10:51:48 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
sparkly wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@smutaga. congrats on your achievements so far.
how have you determined that longhorn and liberty are undervalued. are you working with any net asset value figures?

My valuation method is purely on P/E because they both have single digit P/E's. I would not use the NAV to value securities that are not distressed. NAV to me only makes sense when valuing distressed securities such as Mumias because they have a high chance of liquidation and hence you would like to know what you will get in case of such an event. For a security that is not in distress, I use P/E because all I care about is the return on investment I expect from the security, not the assets the company has. Some companies have very expensive assets but post meager profits, and therefore using the NAV could be very misleading. Those are my two Ugandan Shillings though, am not an expert in these things.


Congrats @SM for the excellent return. Can't comment on the valuation of LH but the company simply doesn't excite me... A company that prints books in this digital age, i am not very optimistic on its longterm.

Pan Africa, CFC and HF i belief have good prospects. Selling these and putting the money in LH to me looks like a Zero-sum game. If i were you i would hold cash and wait for discounts on the bluechips, my 2 zim dollars.


Sparkly...most of my decisions are usually based on numbers. I believe numbers dont lie. Longhorn may be the most unpopular stock, but if it offers a better return, I will buy. Have a look at this numbers and tell me whether there are many stocks that show better value than this:
2012 FY – (25,949,000)
2013 FY – 93,918,000
2014 HY – Up 78% to 30,155,000
Dividend = Ksh 1.6 for each share held.
Dividend yield = 10.67%
p/e is around 9.
Growth in profits is upwards as hinted by this year's half year results. Anyway, the end justifies the means...as long as we keep making money, the investment strategy is usually subject to personal preference.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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S.Mutaga III
#42 Posted : Sunday, August 10, 2014 6:51:41 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
The exit from Pan Africa just before the announcement of the half year results may have been spot on. I expect the counter to get a serious beating from tomorrow to sub 100 levels going forward. The redeployment of the money to Longhorn which was trading at around Ksh 15 at the time is already starting to bear fruits with the latest price being Ksh 17 per share. I am however seriously reconsidering to hop back into CFC Stanbic but I am yet to evaluate whether there are better opportunities in the market. For now my holdings are CFC Insurance (Liberty) and Longhorn publishers. I am seriously considering buying CFC Stanbic tomorrow because even at a 10% gain, the price will still be attractive for a long term investor.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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S.Mutaga III
#43 Posted : Sunday, August 10, 2014 7:29:48 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
My portfolio for the remaining 5 months of 2014 is as follows:-
Longhorn (Buying Price)= 15.9
Current Price= 17.0
Return on Investment= 6.9% (ignoring buying expenses)
Liberty (Buying Price)= 17.9
Current Price= 17.9
Return on Investment= 0% (ignoring buying expenses)
Activity 3:
Purchase of CFC Stanbic shares at any price below Ksh 140. I will quote Ksh 140 and buy CFC Stanbic tomorrow to be sure that the trade goes through. I believe that the counter is still undervalued at Ksh 140 per share as a long term investor.

Portfolio composition:
Longhorn Publishers = 40% (BP @ 15.9)
CFC Insurance/ Liberty = 30% (BP @ 17.9)
CFC Stanbic Holdings = 30% (BP @ 140)

Happy Hunting
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Mart_Consult
#44 Posted : Sunday, August 10, 2014 9:22:57 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/7/2013
Posts: 127
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
S.Mutaga III wrote:
My portfolio for the remaining 5 months of 2014 is as follows:-
Longhorn (Buying Price)= 15.9
Current Price= 17.0
Return on Investment= 6.9% (ignoring buying expenses)
Liberty (Buying Price)= 17.9
Current Price= 17.9
Return on Investment= 0% (ignoring buying expenses)
Activity 3:
Purchase of CFC Stanbic shares at any price below Ksh 140. I will quote Ksh 140 and buy CFC Stanbic tomorrow to be sure that the trade goes through. I believe that the counter is still undervalued at Ksh 140 per share as a long term investor.

Portfolio composition:
Longhorn Publishers = 40% (BP @ 15.9)
CFC Insurance/ Liberty = 30% (BP @ 17.9)
CFC Stanbic Holdings = 30% (BP @ 140)

Happy Hunting


Longhorn...don't count your gains too early Pan- Africa style (what with their gains on investment 2013 booking)...it is still oscillating at the 15- 17 level...perhaps when the results are released will touch a new high...but not sustainably...been monitoring for the past few months...forms part of my Portfolio as well (since early year)...Liberty, good call...
I went into the (Ferry) industry knowing the same thing I knew with all other businesses I went into- Nothing. Then I built it from there. - Sheldon Adelson (Titans at the Table- Giants of Macau)
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mibbz
#45 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2014 1:05:40 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
Borrowing a leaf from Mutanga the 3rd, i exited pan Africa earlier in the year.Currently betting on KPLC & Kenol Kobil with a 1 year horizon of a gross minimum gain of 60%. KK 8.10 to 13 and KPLC 13 to 21.Anything above the exit price shall be considered a bonus
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S.Mutaga III
#46 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2014 9:53:42 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
Bought CFC Stanbic at Ksh 130 today.
My portfolio for the remaining 5 months of 2014 is as follows:-
Longhorn (Buying Price)= 15.9
Current Price= 17.0
Return on Investment= 6.9% (ignoring buying expenses)
Liberty (Buying Price)= 17.9
Current Price= 17.9
Return on Investment= 0% (ignoring buying expenses)
Activity 3:
I just bought CFC Stanbic at Ksh 130 today. Its time to focus on other businesses now bearing in mind that I have no extra cash to invest in stocks. I can now sit and wait and maybe come back for a purchase in case I get some more cash from my hustles.

Portfolio composition:
Longhorn Publishers = 40% (BP @ 15.9)
CFC Insurance/ Liberty = 30% (BP @ 17.9)
CFC Stanbic Holdings = 30% (BP @ 130)

Happy Hunting
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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sizzla
#47 Posted : Tuesday, August 12, 2014 8:18:38 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/10/2006
Posts: 201
Location: Nairobi
S.Mutaga III wrote:
The exit from Pan Africa just before the announcement of the half year results may have been spot on. I expect the counter to get a serious beating from tomorrow to sub 100 levels going forward. The redeployment of the money to Longhorn which was trading at around Ksh 15 at the time is already starting to bear fruits with the latest price being Ksh 17 per share. I am however seriously reconsidering to hop back into CFC Stanbic but I am yet to evaluate whether there are better opportunities in the market. For now my holdings are CFC Insurance (Liberty) and Longhorn publishers. I am seriously considering buying CFC Stanbic tomorrow because even at a 10% gain, the price will still be attractive for a long term investor.


In my opinion Pan Africa is still a buy sub 120...demand still holding strong.
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S.Mutaga III
#48 Posted : Tuesday, September 23, 2014 12:20:56 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
Longhorn Publishers...the company had stellar HY results recording a 79% jump in profits. However, Q3 results were a slight decline from last year and they issued a dividend when they announced the Q3 results (Fishy). As such, it is clear that the firm had a TERRIBLE third quarter and is unlikely to record any increase in profitability of the FY. I will exit at any price above 16 and redeploy the funds to other counters.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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littledove
#49 Posted : Wednesday, September 24, 2014 3:12:24 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 927
Location: sky
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Longhorn Publishers...the company had stellar HY results recording a 79% jump in profits. However, Q3 results were a slight decline from last year and they issued a dividend when they announced the Q3 results (Fishy). As such, it is clear that the firm had a TERRIBLE third quarter and is unlikely to record any increase in profitability of the FY. I will exit at any price above 16 and redeploy the funds to other counters.

@S.Mutaga dont exit so fast, as i was doing some research on this one i found something very interesting on share holding of Longhorn.kirubi (centum) and francis thombe (chairman) jointly own 70%. This says alot especially when centum is involved. i have put something small to book my space in next cycle portfolio restructuring. This is a space to watch
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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VituVingiSana
#50 Posted : Wednesday, September 24, 2014 4:14:42 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
littledove wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Longhorn Publishers...the company had stellar HY results recording a 79% jump in profits. However, Q3 results were a slight decline from last year and they issued a dividend when they announced the Q3 results (Fishy). As such, it is clear that the firm had a TERRIBLE third quarter and is unlikely to record any increase in profitability of the FY. I will exit at any price above 16 and redeploy the funds to other counters.

@S.Mutaga dont exit so fast, as i was doing some research on this one i found something very interesting on share holding of Longhorn.kirubi (centum) and francis thombe (chairman) jointly own 70%. This says alot especially when centum is involved. i have put something small to book my space in next cycle portfolio restructuring. This is a space to watch
Nyammo? Check out his history.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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