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KenolKobil FY2011 results pretax profit jumps 74 pct
Gordon Gekko
#41 Posted : Wednesday, February 29, 2012 7:54:23 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Diversifying to protect revenue. Not a good sign if you asked me. Stick to your core business and do it well.

www.nation.co.ke/busines...2/-/131woc8/-/index.html
Jamani
#42 Posted : Wednesday, February 29, 2012 8:47:28 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
http://www.businessdaily.../-/m951cfz/-/index.html

Extract....
“We have grown big over the years on our own but now we need to bring in a strategic foreign investor to further expand our business on the continent,” Jacob Segman, Kenol’s managing director, told an investor briefing Wednesday without giving details.
The oil marketer did not say whether its top shareholders will cede shares to accommodate the strategic investors or if it will create new shares to tap the high net worth shareholder.
Analysts say major shareholders are unlikely to sell off their stakes in the highly profitable company, arguing that the strategic investor could be accommodated by creating new shares or by going into a joint venture with Kenol.
“The company is undervalued and current shareholders can only sell their stakes by attaching a premium to the share price. A joint venture or creation of new shares is a more probable option,” said Eric Musau, an analyst at Standard Investment Bank.
...............If Kenol creates new shares to accommodate the targeted investors, it will follow the path taken by companies such as Equity Bank and ScanGroup that have benefited from new capital and expertise from strategic investors.
Aguytrying
#43 Posted : Wednesday, February 29, 2012 9:32:13 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
This is the second time segman has drummed up this strategic partner plan. It could be going down sooner than we all thing. Could the gurus please break down the possible outcomes of the different scenarious on eps and share price and any other effects on the share and company.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
guru267
#44 Posted : Wednesday, February 29, 2012 10:17:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
please break down the possible outcomes of the different scenarious on eps and share price and any other effects on the share and company.


I will break it down to cases where the strategic investor gets 10%, 20% & 30% of kenol kobil by diluting current shareholder..

At 10% dilution
Kenol will have to add 165mn new shares bringing the EPS down to 2bob.. The shareholders will love this one because their wealth and control is maintained plus they get improvement in earnings from the Strategic investors advice..

At 20% dilution
Kenol will have to add 370mn shares bringing the EPS down to 1.75bob.. This move will be shunned by the market as it will probably lead to a fall in dividend and the risk is higher if the investor underperforms in his duties..
Although the share will still be cheap at 11.5

At 30% dilution
Kenol will have to add 650mn shares bringing EPS down to 1.5bob.. This will mean giving up a lot of control in the company to a stranger & DPS will fall to 60cents from 1bob ..
And yet even with 30% dilution the stock looks relatively CHEAP at 11.5
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Cde Monomotapa
#45 Posted : Wednesday, February 29, 2012 10:43:23 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Can I throw in a name like Engen SA? Atleast they were ready to partner and enter the Zim mkt by buying out an exiting Shell/BP.
the deal
#46 Posted : Wednesday, February 29, 2012 11:01:45 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Can I throw in a name like Engen SA? Atleast they were ready to partner and enter the Zim mkt by buying out an exiting Shell/BP.

I agree Engen would be a better partner...they have a strong precense in most of this countries KK wan't to venture into.
Aguytrying
#47 Posted : Wednesday, February 29, 2012 11:46:10 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
guru267 wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
please break down the possible outcomes of the different scenarious on eps and share price and any other effects on the share and company.


I will break it down to cases where the strategic investor gets 10%, 20% & 30% of kenol kobil by diluting current shareholder..

At 10% dilution
Kenol will have to add 165mn new shares bringing the EPS down to 2bob.. The shareholders will love this one because their wealth and control is maintained plus they get improvement in earnings from the Strategic investors advice..

At 20% dilution
Kenol will have to add 370mn shares bringing the EPS down to 1.75bob.. This move will be shunned by the market as it will probably lead to a fall in dividend and the risk is higher if the investor underperforms in his duties..
Although the share will still be cheap at 11.5

At 30% dilution
Kenol will have to add 650mn shares bringing EPS down to 1.5bob.. This will mean giving up a lot of control in the company to a stranger & DPS will fall to 60cents from 1bob ..
And yet even with 30% dilution the stock looks relatively CHEAP at 11.5


This is well thought out.
Why cant the strategic investor buy from the market, even if it will take a long time,

or offer a bid to one or two of the top share holders that's too good to refuse.

I assume creation of new shares, that will be bought, will not increase EPS, but will increase shareholder funds and capitalization.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
itz
#48 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2012 2:09:42 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/20/2009
Posts: 348
Gordon Gekko wrote:
Diversifying to protect revenue. Not a good sign if you asked me. Stick to your core business and do it well.

www.nation.co.ke/busines...2/-/131woc8/-/index.html


i totally agree with you @Gekko.i dont understood why kenyan companies are all rushing to real estate for revenue growth.Does this mean that their businesses in those particular industries are fully mature.They should stick to their core business.Good companies and good managements stick to their main core business.
the deal
#49 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2012 8:15:13 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
If you can go to the facebook fanpage of my blog, I posted a video of yesterdays investor briefing...it's full of insights. Theyre going into real estate in Rwanda and Ethiopia not Kenya.
VituVingiSana
#50 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2012 8:46:30 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,344
Location: Nairobi
Kihangeri wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
jerry wrote:
jerry wrote:
When are books closing?

I thought final ought to be bigger than interim.
Why?


VVS.....You don't sound very inspiring any more.

Which other company issues a higher interim dividend than the Final?

This thread should be allowed to rest like Njenga Karume.
Williamson gave 50/- as Interim. I would be very happy to get that as the Final.

I don't have the info at my fingertips but there are many firms that have paid either:

1) Larger Interim divs vs final
2) Interim divs then no final
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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