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The long bear
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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At least CBK is trying to do something for now. My beef is with Treasury. The finance ministry needs a policy strategy makeover not political appointees. Luckily this comes to play 2013. The sooner, the better. It would be a sad thing to have the Thai experience across EA with the smaller economies & the poverty levels...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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In 3 months, we seem to have gone bearish fully na baado we have not had the political shenanigans kicking in properly. That is, August cut-off period for katiba implementation; ICC; and the GE campaigns have all not kicked in. And interest rates will only be restrained by heavy rains and lower oil prices between now and December. Could we see 3,500? Are there some cat bounces in the short-term horizon? Your call. Those with share holdings built during the bullish period now have 3 options. Hold out and wait for cat bounces. Exit and look to recoup in other significant stock opportunities. Or so-called averaging down... Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 3/29/2011 Posts: 56 Location: Kenya
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Looking at the board, its almost all red, with just a few spots of green. Buckle up!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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I see the bourse closing 10-15% higher than today towards year end....on good company earnings and trimmed political risk( im betting on the hague train to go smooth)...company valuations alone wont see us below 3500.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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the deal wrote:I see the bourse closing 10-15% higher than today towards year end....on good company earnings and trimmed political risk( im betting on the hague train to go smooth)...company valuations alone wont see us below 3500. I can bet ya, 3600 handle will be hit before the cat bounce hits resistance at 3900 for the next dive towards 3000 (pain central zone). That's the time when I'll consider loading up the decks even paka??? $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:the deal wrote:I see the bourse closing 10-15% higher than today towards year end....on good company earnings and trimmed political risk( im betting on the hague train to go smooth)...company valuations alone wont see us below 3500. I can bet ya, 3600 handle will be hit before the cat bounce hits resistance at 3900 for the next dive towards 3000 (pain central zone). That's the time when I'll consider loading up the decks even paka??? ha ha. Pain central zone indeed. U seem to be looking forward, it may happen, dont you fear for your current holdings. @the deal. Thats precisely how i see the n.s.e by end year as well. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:the deal wrote:I see the bourse closing 10-15% higher than today towards year end....on good company earnings and trimmed political risk( im betting on the hague train to go smooth)...company valuations alone wont see us below 3500. I can bet ya, 3600 handle will be hit before the cat bounce hits resistance at 3900 for the next dive towards 3000 (pain central zone). That's the time when I'll consider loading up the decks even paka??? ha ha. Pain central zone indeed. U seem to be looking forward, it may happen, dont you fear for your current holdings. @the deal. Thats precisely how i see the n.s.e by end year as well. I got out of the market when the USDKES hit 90/-
I gave my explanations here
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=152171#post152171
and here
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=152515#post152515
and here
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=149655#post149655
and here
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=156061#post156061
and since then this is how NSE looks like after falling from 4400s, which confirms this is a buyers market and not for speculators. Speculators would have benefited if short selling was permitted. YBC, Mainat and myself would be in the monies... I'd have been short selling those bank stocks and industrials like nobody's business...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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@hisah i'm looking at this chart with an open mouth sheeew...if the NSE does not up in the next 3-4 sessions 3500 is the next support...too early to be buying...dont catch a falling knife it will cut you...my only hope is the upcoming earning season
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@hisah.Yes. Now i rem. When you left the n.s.e. Seemed drastic at the time, but boy, you were on point. You are good at what you do. There's a wazuan called insurgent, looking for you in another post, he thinks you are a prophet. I cant disagree. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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the deal wrote:my only hope (expectation) is the upcoming earning season Me too.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:@hisah.Yes. Now i rem. When you left the n.s.e. Seemed drastic at the time, but boy, you were on point. You are good at what you do. There's a wazuan called insurgent, looking for you in another post, he thinks you are a prophet. I cant disagree. Insurgent was look for YBC... And we are not prophets, learn how to read charts, trends and market moods.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Any returns this year will be on merit so shed the dogs and stack up the studs.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Any returns this year will be on merit so shed the dogs and stack up the studs. and what better time to stack up studs than in a bear market.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@The deal - what if what we are witnessing is the unfolding of wave 3 down!? That is assuming the Jan high to low was wave 1 down... If that is the case by the time the wave 5 final thrust comes the index will be sub 2800...?! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/25/2010 Posts: 519 Location: nairobi
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That graph definately looks ugly, we've been watching but I guess we needed to be hit by a hot nail to get a wake up call...I had packed half my stuff @ NSE...I guess I need to do more packing...better late...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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So what is britak ipo facing? A death defying share floating infront of a bear and mutual fund outflows esp from their equity fund. A lot of avg investors will cash out than switch funds to fixed income. That funds outflow, a bearish NSE & undersubcribed IPO will make it a tough 2011 for britak esp the asset management unit... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Any returns this year will be on merit so shed the dogs and stack up the studs.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/25/2011 Posts: 946
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:the deal wrote:my only hope (expectation) is the upcoming earning season Me too. 1Q didnt cause any fireworks for the stocks and now u expect 1H to cause fireworks for the stocks ???????? I have NO HOPE these stocks. i expect NO RALLY with 1H results....thats how i am bearish.. waiting for 3000 on the index coz i know its gonna print.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Any returns this year will be on merit so shed the dogs and stack up the studs.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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The NSE20 losing streak entered Day 8, this is really turning out to be a real rout, the NSE20 lost 31 points or 0.8% to close at 3746, the bourse is in a deeply oversold position and I'm sure we gonna bounce up anytime from this levels, Transcentury deputed at the bourse today, the share rose 20% before stabilizing at Sh55 Read more here http://www.contrarianinv...kenolkobil-and-safaricom
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