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Transcentury IPO
mwanahisa
#81 Posted : Saturday, July 16, 2011 10:00:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
mwekez@ji wrote:
KenyanLyrics wrote:
What about the potential for the railway? Isn't that something to watch out for?


RVR will take a loooong time to turnaround. Centum had to exit RVR with a 25% loss (bought at USD.6M and sold at USD 4.5B)after holding it from 2006 to 2010.


I have just seen some clips of the Kitale Railway Station and the associated infrastracture on NTV this evening. The dilapidation of the infrastructure provides a very stark demonstration just how far RVR has to go if they are ever to make this investment pay off.
mwekez@ji
#82 Posted : Saturday, July 16, 2011 11:31:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
mwanahisa wrote:

I have just seen some clips of the Kitale Railway Station and the associated infrastracture on NTV this evening. The dilapidation of the infrastructure provides a very stark demonstration just how far RVR has to go if they are ever to make this investment pay off.


TCL books have carried the investment in RVR at cost which is definitely not the fair value. I tend not to agree with the way TCL values companies, including their valuation of TCL at KES 50 (its just gross overvaluation)
mwekez@ji
#83 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 8:28:02 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Shareholders of RVR will be injecting USD.80M (KES 7.2B) more capital in the company very soon.

African Development Bank has approved a loan of USD.39M (KES 3.59B) as part of a five-year capital investment programme worth USD 246M(KES 22.1B)

http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Ra...056/1202756/-/9t62egz/-/

And still RVR requires more than this to turn around its poor performance
mwanahisa
#84 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 9:01:48 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
By the way, TCL projects EPS to more than double this year. Even with such a rosy projection, forward EPS will still be close to 20 at Friday's closing price.
mlennyma
#85 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 9:33:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
Below introduction price this week.you praise your cow in the market even if its dying..thats sales
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Sober
#86 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 11:39:07 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
WHAT PRICE IS THIS SHARE TRADING AT?
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
selah
#87 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 12:04:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
In todays paper ADB has approved a 3.59b loan to finance the rehabilitation of the dilapidated kenya - uganda railway,the loan is part of 5yr capital investment program of 22.1B.

The last time I checked TCL owned part of this Bank so can we take its statement seriously or can we say most of its decision is clouded since its just funding its sister company.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
mwanahisa
#88 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 12:17:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@selah, TCL does not own even a hair of AfDB. The African Development Bank is certainly not a sister company of TCL. I am sure they (TCL) would wish it was!

selah wrote:
In todays paper ADB has approved a 3.59b loan to finance the rehabilitation of the dilapidated kenya - uganda railway,the loan is part of 5yr capital investment program of 22.1B.

The last time I checked TCL owned part of this Bank so can we take its statement seriously or can we say most of its decision is clouded since its just funding its sister company.

selah
#89 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 12:58:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
mwanahisa wrote:
@selah, TCL does not own even a hair of AfDB. The African Development Bank is certainly not a sister company of TCL. I am sure they (TCL) would wish it was!

selah wrote:
In todays paper ADB has approved a 3.59b loan to finance the rehabilitation of the dilapidated kenya - uganda railway,the loan is part of 5yr capital investment program of 22.1B.

The last time I checked TCL owned part of this Bank so can we take its statement seriously or can we say most of its decision is clouded since its just funding its sister company.



Apologies,that was quite a big error, I had confused it with development bank of Kenya (DBK).

What that means is that TCL offers some very attractive long term value but its a risky investment in the short term,my error not withstanding.

The capital requirement for RVR to turnaround is humongous given that the management need to pay up this loan as well as the convertible bonds not forgetting loans which it is already servicing.

In a capital intensive business like this one until the business is completely streamlined and all processes made to work efficiently then its like standing in a quick sand...the management will continue investing and loosing money in a business whose operational cost is unsustainable due to derelict infrastructure.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
VituVingiSana
#90 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 1:27:13 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
30/- & in 2013 after the elections & see if the power brokers are still 'friends' of TCL...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
youcan'tstopusnow
#91 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 1:45:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
VituVingiSana wrote:
30/- & in 2013 after the elections & see if the power brokers are still 'friends' of TCL...

Maybe these guys will still make a killing if they sell at 30/=...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
VituVingiSana
#92 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 1:49:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
30/- & in 2013 after the elections & see if the power brokers are still 'friends' of TCL...

Maybe these guys will still make a killing if they sell at 30/=...
I will not touch it till 2013 [I am sure they will try to raise more funds either through a Rights or some other method e.g. sale of a stake (direct investment) or another Convertible Loan]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwanahisa
#93 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 1:52:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
30/- & in 2013 after the elections & see if the power brokers are still 'friends' of TCL...

Maybe these guys will still make a killing if they sell at 30/=...


Of course they will. Remember these guys started off with only 29 million shillings between them which they have "grown" a zillion fold. Even at 1/= they would still make money. You have got to admire them!!!
youcan'tstopusnow
#94 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 2:29:44 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
mwanahisa wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
30/- & in 2013 after the elections & see if the power brokers are still 'friends' of TCL...

Maybe these guys will still make a killing if they sell at 30/=...


Of course they will. Remember these guys started off with only 29 million shillings between them which they have "grown" a zillion fold. Even at 1/= they would still make money. You have got to admire them!!!


They say: "If you had invested $10000 with Warren Buffett in 1965, it would be worth approximately $50 million today"

How do these guys compare if we annualise their performances?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
mwanahisa
#95 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 2:29:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Actually TransCentury is not bad as an investment. But as ProverB put it at this price, there is absolutely no juice left in it for those jumping in at this stage.

Given the conversion price for bondholders, maybe at 40, one could take another look.
VituVingiSana
#96 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 6:21:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
mwanahisa wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
30/- & in 2013 after the elections & see if the power brokers are still 'friends' of TCL...

Maybe these guys will still make a killing if they sell at 30/=...


Of course they will. Remember these guys started off with only 29 million shillings between them which they have "grown" a zillion fold. Even at 1/= they would still make money. You have got to admire them!!!


They say: "If you had invested $10000 with Warren Buffett in 1965, it would be worth approximately $50 million today"

How do these guys compare if we annualise their performances?
Bila connections? Eddy Njoroge is a major shareholder in TCL & CEO of KenGen + has influence with KPLC & Ketraco all major users of cables made by EA Cables!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
ProverB
#97 Posted : Thursday, July 21, 2011 6:06:06 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
Yap! totally worth it. Ignoring it I mean.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
dunkang
#98 Posted : Thursday, July 21, 2011 6:10:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Pass!
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

youcan'tstopusnow
#99 Posted : Thursday, July 21, 2011 7:04:55 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Can we nickname Transcentury "Tranny"? All in favour say 'Aye'
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
lovely2010
#100 Posted : Thursday, July 21, 2011 7:18:59 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/25/2010
Posts: 519
Location: nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Can we nickname Transcentury "Tranny"? All in favour say 'Aye'


Tranny, sounds kiddish, but, Ayeya...
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