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KenolKobil, KPLC or KCB?
Rank: Member Joined: 1/29/2011 Posts: 257
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mwanahisa wrote:Demand has been building up on KCB since the low of 22 last week. Supply is also beginning to retreat to a higher level with trades currently at 22.75. Makes me begin to wonder - Will this be the year for the Lion to roar? let's hope so!!!! "All intelligent investing is value investing -- acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock." - Charlie Munger.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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I am not so sure about KK, but KPLC and KCB are both good companies. I expect KCB to give higher returns in the short and medium term.KPLC on the other hand is likely to follow the path of the GDP, possibly growing at a slightly higher rate that the GDP. I therefore expect medium to long term returns for KPLC. I would split my capital in the ratio of 7:3 for KCB and KPLC respectively.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/29/2011 Posts: 257
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With the results announced by KCB leo, I'm glad I opted for KCB!! "All intelligent investing is value investing -- acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock." - Charlie Munger.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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mwanahisa wrote:I daresay I expect 22 to be the resistance level. At any rate that's what I hope having bought a huge chunk today at that price. I also added to my holdings in Equity Bank at 27.50. Tomorrow, I will buy more if I can get them below the 27.50 mark. Then, I will wait! With the results KCB has released, I am happy to have added onto KCB making it the largest financial stock in my portfolio. What's even more interesting is that these results point to the fact that KCB is quite capable of increasing its EPS to Kshs 5 within the next 2-3 years given the inefficiences that are still so apparent. Can you imagine where that will take the KCB price to? If BBK can make 10.8 billion PBT with a balance sheet of 172 B, it should be possible for KCB to make over 15 billion with its 251 B. BTW, I also hold KK but have not added any for a while. I sold off all my Kshs 19.50 KPLC rights a while ago and walked away with 20% gains. I am not convinced that KPLC will move much until the rights story becomes a distant memory just like happened with KCB. There is always the possibility that KK will surprise us BIG one of these fine days, but with the oil price moving all over the place, the uncertainty on this is higher. This leaves me with the conclusion that if I had to choose just one of the 3, I would stick with KCB.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/29/2011 Posts: 257
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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So can we revisit KCB hitting 60 bob this year?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/12/2010 Posts: 1,199 Location: Eastlander
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:So can we revisit KCB hitting 60 bob this year? mwanahisa's sentiments are largely fundamental..all other factors (meaning behavioral..especially retail traders) remaining constant..which is unlikely..if overall perception to investing in stocks turns positive..and economy loosens up liquidity in a way nse is major beneficiary.., then yes.. KCB will be a popular stock and assuming demand outstrips supply..no telling where price will get.. But alas..NSE is affected more so by emotions/perception than fundamentals.. most cash is heading to bonds...(safe)..and seeking quick buck schemes..(greed)..hence counters with splits/bonuss/rights issue see upward in prices compared to those without... bonds and upcoming placements compete for same cash entering the nse.. so NO... kcb won't see 60 this year... ..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16 - 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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@Proverb..cool then it's accumilation till NSE comes around. Equity is given a p/e of 20. With KCBs 2.7 eps..what's the math?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/12/2010 Posts: 1,199 Location: Eastlander
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@CDE... normal approach i've found on kcb from all manner of people is .. " You never go wrong with KCB.." ..which has done it well over the years.. kcb is safe and really nice for the risk averse.. instutitutional backing helps mop up "turbulence" on the counter  Equity is fancied by "aggressive" and "risk" oriented buyers..i know of institutions that by "decree" will not touch equity! Tehehehehehe! ..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16 - 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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@Proverb..he he..I appreciate and respect what Equity does in terms of financial inclusion & empowerment and for that reason I prefer KCB where the real owners of industry might bank coz at the end of the day they retain the most of mwananchi money 
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Rank: User Joined: 5/9/2010 Posts: 1,418 Location: Nai
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:So can we revisit KCB hitting 60 bob this year? WOW ! thats tooooooo optimistic though i cannot rule out a forty something by years end if the same growth pace is maintained.. You shld also note that this stock is very very liquid and moving such a stock takes allot of time .. Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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mwanahisa wrote:guru267 wrote:VituVingiSana wrote: I expect 30-40% higher PAT @VVS this is rather optimistic I am with g267 on this. If history is any guide, KPLC has only been able to increase profits substantially from changes in tariffs not the gradual increase in customer connections. I am ignoring the period when they were coming back from the dead. My expectation would be between 10% -20% growth in PAT. I have just seen the KPLC results and at 18.6% growth in PAT this has come in within the range I predicted. For a utility this is not bad but certainly nothing much to write home about considering the way the Financials are shooting the lights out!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,223 Location: Nairobi
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mwanahisa wrote:mwanahisa wrote:guru267 wrote:VituVingiSana wrote: I expect 30-40% higher PAT @VVS this is rather optimistic I am with g267 on this. If history is any guide, KPLC has only been able to increase profits substantially from changes in tariffs not the gradual increase in customer connections. I am ignoring the period when they were coming back from the dead. My expectation would be between 10% -20% growth in PAT. I have just seen the KPLC results and at 18.6% growth in PAT this has come in within the range I predicted. For a utility this is not bad but certainly nothing much to write home about considering the way the Financials are shooting the lights out! Am I disappointed? YES... Sigh... 2H is expected to be better if they can get the supply... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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We can now see that KCB appears to have been (is) the clear winner of the three stocks. I continue to place my faith in the lion, although I have changed my stance on KK following the release of results and the outlook statement. I am no longer buying KCB but I have been adding on to my position in KK. As for KPLC I have only gone in for some speculative pickings which I have since sold. However, I will be a buyer, should it get back to the 20 level, but again purely for speculation. mwanahisa wrote:With the results KCB has released, I am happy to have added onto KCB making it the largest financial stock in my portfolio. What's even more interesting is that these results point to the fact that KCB is quite capable of increasing its EPS to Kshs 5 within the next 2-3 years given the inefficiences that are still so apparent. Can you imagine where that will take the KCB price to?
If BBK can make 10.8 billion PBT with a balance sheet of 172 B, it should be possible for KCB to make over 15 billion with its 251 B.
BTW, I also hold KK but have not added any for a while. I sold off all my Kshs 19.50 KPLC rights a while ago and walked away with 20% gains. I am not convinced that KPLC will move much until the rights story becomes a distant memory just like happened with KCB. There is always the possibility that KK will surprise us BIG one of these fine days, but with the oil price moving all over the place, the uncertainty on this is higher. This leaves me with the conclusion that if I had to choose just one of the 3, I would stick with KCB.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/29/2011 Posts: 257
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mwanahisa wrote:We can now see that KCB appears to be the clear winner of the three stocks...
Agreed!!! "All intelligent investing is value investing -- acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock." - Charlie Munger.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,191 Location: nairobi
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Not really,every nugu has its day to shout. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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@mlennyma, I should have added that KCB is the winner, so far. Barring i)political noises/Ocampo 6 case fallout worsening; ii)inflation continuing to rise and iii)drought intensifying; my short term target, post Q1 results announcement still remains a trailing PE of 10. I will however not be surprised if it is not attained, due to current market sentiment.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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And the story continues. Very significantly, KCB has traded above Kshs 25. This is the price at which their second last rights issue was done at, some years back. I am sure some technical analysts may have something to say about this, assuming it closes at this price. My hunch is that it is very significant. But what do I know?
BTW, anyone who bought the rights in August last year has now made over 40% in this "bear market".
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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@Mwanahisa what bear? there,s no bear only with QW..LOL..2011 is my year...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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the deal wrote:@Mwanahisa what bear? there,s no bear only with QW..LOL..2011 is my year... To be fair to QW, I daresay he has not been the only one talking of a bear market. Even I have become a lot more cautious. I changed my stance to have around 20% of my portfolio in cash. I drew down on that quite a bit in the last two weeks, but I will soon be replenishing the position.
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KenolKobil, KPLC or KCB?
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