BBK @ 12.50
Kplc caving in

Its so boring 💤. I'd rather be buying than perpetually waiting to buy

my ticker points at hfck with 20 not coming

WB advises us lesser mortals not to bother with timing the market. If WB with all his knowledge and market savvy (gathered over 70 years) cannot time the market, how can we? Food for thought.

Yes. WB looks at it from very interesting (& sensible) perspectives.
1) Don't just buy shares, buy a piece of the company i.e. would you buy the entire company at this price? If yes, buy. If no, then do not.
2) Buy shares in a company if you don't mind owning the shares if the market shuts down for 10 years. Even though I hope KK is taken over, I do not mind buying KK at 9/- to hold for the next 10 years.
3) He doesn't look for turnarounds. He buys management i.e. if he doesn't trust the management, he doesn't buy. He doesn't want to try to change the management. He wants a good and trustworthy management. Today, that criterion has eliminated HAFR, OCH, NBK, KQ, Sameer, Eveready, etc from my list.
4) Timing doesn't work for most people. We never get in at the lowest price nor get out at the highest price. Just get in when there's a discount. Socks or stocks are best bought at a discount. He isn't a seller so I don't know what he says about bailing out. Recently, he sold Tesco as well as shares in some oil firms.

Yes. He said as much. He doesn't shy away from selling if need be.

4,017.34 is the close today. All gains from Nov 2012 to date erased, that is 3yrs worth of gains! For the long term guys...ouch!

Long long term is normally a tuff affair!!! Lock in gains at dome mid term interval!!!

NSE 20 Share Index Elliott Waves

Welcome guys so that we look at the latest Elliott Wave action in the Index.



From our Long Term Chart we can state with confidence that we have a strong resistance (TOP) at 5499.64 marking the end of wave (B). From that Mar.'15 top we have had a drop that labels nicely as an impulse 'green' wave 1. What's more, evidence suggests that the correction for this wave 1 (i.e wave 2) is almost complete and we should brace for another round of selling soon.

Remember we are in October, the month when some of the worst stock market crashes have occurred. I believe it is suicidal holding any long positions in this market.

Discussion for impulse wave 1 (in green) follows shortly.

The Expanded Flat Wave 2 in the NSE 20 Share Index



After hitting a low of 4080.83, the Index rose in a clear three wave pattern making 'blue' wave [ a ]. The wave [ a ] is composed of waves (a) (b) and (c). Notice that wave (c) subdivides into five waves as expected of C waves (i.e Up, Down, Up, Down and a final Up move).

'Blue' wave [ b ] is also a three wave affair upto the 4017.34 low. I expect the Index to start rising imediately towards the area marked 'Target' before falling strongly in wave 3.

In an Expanded flat we expect wave [ b ] to end once wave [ b ] is 1.236 X Wave [ a ]. The extreme for wave [ b ] can be 1.382 X wave [ a ]. Below we check if this guideline has been followed.

Wave [ a ] = (4257.27 - 4080.83) = 176.44

1.236 X wave [ a ] = (1.236 X 176.44) = 218.08

1.382 X wave [ a ] = (1.382 X 176.44) = 243.84

Subtracting the above two values from 4257.27 (the end of wave [ a ] ) we'll be able to get the range for the expected end of wave [ b ]. Thus:

(4257.27 - 218.08) = 4039.19

(4257.27 - 243.84) = 4013.43

So at 4017.34 (as on 9th October, 2015) is well within the range for wave [ b ]. This is the reason why I expect the Index to start rising immediately from 12th October.


Using 4017.34 as the end of wave [ b ] we can target the end of 'blue' wave [ c ] which will also mark the end of 'green' wave 2.

[ c ] waves of flats are usually Equal to wave [ a ]; 1.618 X wave [ a ]; Twice wave [ a ] or 2.618 x wave [ a ]. Once we get these values we add them to 4017.34 (our likely end of wave [ b ] to get the end of wave [ c ].

Targets:

1. (4017.34 + (1 X 176.44)) = 4193.78

2. (4017.34 + (1.618 X 176.)) = 4302.82

3. (4017.34 + (2 X 176.44)) = 4370.22

4. (4017.34 + (2.618 X 176.44)) = 4479.26

Option 4 is very likely since that level would also meet the guideline of depth of corrective waves. i.e that is the area of the previous fourth wave (wave [ iv ]) stated as: Corrections tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree, most commonly near the level of its terminus.

Summary:


NSE 20 share Index should rise imediately to about 4500 and then drop dramatically.