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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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youcan'tstopusnow
#941 Posted : Friday, September 30, 2011 5:32:46 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Safcom increases Call Rates for the first time in 11 years, blames weak Kshs - http://mobile.bloomberg....inflation-currency.html
Will Airtel hold steady?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#942 Posted : Friday, September 30, 2011 6:45:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Safcom increases Call Rates for the first time in 11 years, blames weak Kshs - http://mobile.bloomberg....inflation-currency.html
Will Airtel hold steady?
is
This is definitely good news to Airtel and a plus. With a lean workforce and most of its operations outsourced Airtel will definitely come out of this "recession" much more stronger (read eat into Safcon's customers)than safcon!
@SufficientlyP
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Cde Monomotapa
#943 Posted : Friday, September 30, 2011 7:10:49 PM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Safcom increases Call Rates for the first time in 11 years, blames weak Kshs - http://mobile.bloomberg....inflation-currency.html
Will Airtel hold steady?

Scapegoat. Perfect smile
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QW25081985
#944 Posted : Friday, September 30, 2011 7:59:06 PM
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Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
Network speed at Kenyatta University Library

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kenyainvestor
#945 Posted : Friday, September 30, 2011 8:32:27 PM
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Joined: 7/12/2011
Posts: 194
@hisah, you once talked about picking up banks at a PE ratio of less than 8. I noticed that at 16.35, Kenya Commercial Bank has a trailing PE of 6.1. But I have a feeling you won't be dipping your fingers in the cookie jar just yetsmile
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the deal
#946 Posted : Friday, September 30, 2011 9:29:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Safaricom @ Sh2.95...i remember having a big argument here last week that this thing won't go below Sh3...@hisah I hope you exited...without any scratches...
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hisah
#947 Posted : Friday, September 30, 2011 9:56:53 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
the deal wrote:
Safaricom @ Sh2.95...i remember having a big argument here last week that this thing won't go below Sh3...@hisah I hope you exited...without any scratches...

Yap. exited with commission fees as my expense. Actually the price hike by mpesa is a nice idea! For short term not gud, but long term beneficial! I expect the rest to be more expensive as the dollar crashes the kes & makes importers take a bloodbath. How airtel, yu & orange will maintain lower tariffs is a mystery. Their losses won't be funny with a nasty inflation rate...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#948 Posted : Friday, September 30, 2011 10:00:50 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
kenyainvestor wrote:
@hisah, you once talked about picking up banks at a PE ratio of less than 8. I noticed that at 16.35, Kenya Commercial Bank has a trailing PE of 6.1. But I have a feeling you won't be dipping your fingers in the cookie jar just yetsmile

Eh, not a nice idea now. 3k has to be tested first...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#949 Posted : Sunday, October 02, 2011 5:41:44 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
So last week the pin off for the bounce that started on Sept 6th was broken last Friday negating the 3357 support as solid floor for September. The KES also took a proper knock against hard currencies with the CBK being forced to cut off banks from fx trading platforms. It is getting very murky in this KE investment space. Inflation closed the month at 17.3% which back in April at 9%, CBK stated that it was just a blip... Kenya’s total public debt grew 3.7% to Sh1.6 tn ($15.6 bn) as of Aug. from July. That equates to 57.4% GDP - http://twitter.com/#!/search/realtime/%23MinistryofFinance

With all these economical headwinds, I'll keep the KE stash hidden in T-bills esp 91 day until things settle down. It will also become tricky trying to piece in a nasty euroland default with the current finance regulation disorder in KE.

Last week NBK had a 10% bounce from 21/- closing @23.25. Excessively oversold, but I see no floor yet.

Unga reports outsize profits and is hammered 10% after the news. The 137%+ foreign exchange losses spooked some guys.

Sasini back to 12 - still retracing the 'real estate' excitement rally. So far it looks like 14 will be resistance for a while.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Aguytrying
#950 Posted : Monday, October 03, 2011 3:40:15 PM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Nice update. I've started getting greedy over KK at 9.40 it is hard to resist. Today 14.4M sold by foreigners out of total of 14.6M turnover. Lets see where this selling will get us to.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#951 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 7:47:35 AM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
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how about, when two days pass and no one has commented on this thread
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Cde Monomotapa
#952 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 8:16:09 AM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Aguytrying wrote:
how about, when two days pass and no one has commented on this thread

Signs of deserters with their broken market timers having a tough time deciding as to when to get back into the market? Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
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hisah
#953 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 8:23:13 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
how about, when two days pass and no one has commented on this thread

Shhh... Dont wake the cheap blue chips. Tip toe while accumulating smile
Shouting is only applicable to the new NSE called Shamba stocks aka land deals smile

That cbk 4% shock rate hike has placed a heavy barrier infront of the bull... As @cde says, heavy rains will be required to wash away that barrier.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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the deal
#954 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 8:42:46 AM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
The 4% hike is atleast 3 month behind...CBR should be hiked further if KES does not weaken and inflation does not abate...like I have said on several occassions calling for a bottom at 3507 was premature...when bluechips turn into monkeys (unbelievable prices) thats when you will know we have bottomed...2013...2014....
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QW25081985
#955 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 8:43:29 AM
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Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
tuna nunua pole pole ...

thats what the mboys are doing...
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Papa Investor
#956 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 8:49:23 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 6/3/2010
Posts: 96
Given the way stock are so out of fashion now....think it may actually be the best time to accumulate slowly...all the factors look to an opportunity of a lifetime..PE's of below 8 ...golden...but the waiting will be a killer...
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Hunderwear
#957 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 8:57:15 AM
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Joined: 4/14/2011
Posts: 639
Aguytrying wrote:
how about, when two days pass and no one has commented on this thread

Times are tiaghest a tel you.
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the deal
#958 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 9:02:02 AM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Once again no critical thinking here...Look beyond that low PE..in fact PE is nothing....in a spun of 1 week we have had two profit warnings...do u think it will stop there...that PE of 8 will become 12...and you will be left holding a monkey...
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#959 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 9:35:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
the deal wrote:
Once again no critical thinking here...Look beyond that low PE..in fact PE is nothing....in a spun of 1 week we have had two profit warnings...do u think it will stop there...that PE of 8 will become 12...and you will be left holding a monkey...

Soo true, while gradual accumulation may not be a bad idea, i think you stand to sleep more, and make more in the next 6 months, or even an year on 91 day T/bills. The rates are really looking juicy as the govt's appetite increases by the day!
The mkt might be flat for a while, yet life has to move on!
@SufficientlyP
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Aguytrying
#960 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 10:40:01 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
how about, when two days pass and no one has commented on this thread

Signs of deserters with their broken market timers having a tough time deciding as to when to get back into the market? Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly


yep. yep. and yep
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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