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Cde Monomotapa
#4751 Posted : Sunday, February 21, 2016 9:07:13 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
lochaz-index wrote:
[quote=alutacontinua]Interesting take by Ray Dalio on what the future of Monetary Policy is likely to be by Central Banks

https://www.linkedin.com...eed-article-title-share[/quote]
CB's will go absolutely nuts when formulating policies to tame deflation. At this point, it's safe to say that QE4 will be an epic fail when it is launched.


Interesting.

Quote:

What Will MP3 Look Like?

While negative interest rates will make cash a bit less attractive (but not much), it won’t drive investors/savers to buy the sort of assets that will finance spending. And while QE will push asset prices somewhat higher, investors/savers will still want to save, lenders will still be cautious lenders, and cautious borrowers will remain cautious, so we will still have “pushing on a string.” As a result, Monetary Policy 3 will have to be directed at spenders more than at investors/savers.


Policy attempts so far have seen recycling back into fin. systems. OK. Now we have low energy (oil) prices making the reflation trickier. OK.

Is the writer suggesting a global welfare state of direct cash transfers? In the event, what would deter deleveraging since it is at a wider scale including those in gainful employment? Universal shopping vouchers perhaps? Interesting.

At what point will there be more money chasing after fewer goods? What measures will be there to curb, worse, unwind hyperinflation?

Interesting. All gold & OEs.
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iris
#4752 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2016 8:40:40 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/11/2014
Posts: 228
Location: Nairobi
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Cde Monomotapa
#4753 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2016 9:16:27 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
iris wrote:
Interesting map


Indeed, certainly the trick:
Quote:
“China is the easy scapegoat, but seriously if anyone is surprised about China’s growth slow-down and its needs to buy time for changing its economic mix-up, they need their school money back.”


In that span of time there will still be the question of who has the policy space to create M3 for (global) investment & consumption? China with a CRR of 17% or CBs at zero to -ve rates?

Also, other solutions for creating that Real demand pull remain as follows:

Cabinet gives the nod for Special Economic Zone construction in Mombasa http://www.businessdaily...06/-/qc4pal/-/index.html
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lochaz-index
#4754 Posted : Tuesday, February 23, 2016 1:52:04 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
[quote=alutacontinua]Interesting take by Ray Dalio on what the future of Monetary Policy is likely to be by Central Banks

https://www.linkedin.com...eed-article-title-share[/quote]
CB's will go absolutely nuts when formulating policies to tame deflation. At this point, it's safe to say that QE4 will be an epic fail when it is launched.


Interesting.

Quote:

What Will MP3 Look Like?

While negative interest rates will make cash a bit less attractive (but not much), it won’t drive investors/savers to buy the sort of assets that will finance spending. And while QE will push asset prices somewhat higher, investors/savers will still want to save, lenders will still be cautious lenders, and cautious borrowers will remain cautious, so we will still have “pushing on a string.” As a result, Monetary Policy 3 will have to be directed at spenders more than at investors/savers.


Policy attempts so far have seen recycling back into fin. systems. OK. Now we have low energy (oil) prices making the reflation trickier. OK.

Is the writer suggesting a global welfare state of direct cash transfers? In the event, what would deter deleveraging since it is at a wider scale including those in gainful employment? Universal shopping vouchers perhaps? Interesting.

At what point will there be more money chasing after fewer goods? What measures will be there to curb, worse, unwind hyperinflation?

Interesting. All gold & OEs.

Deflation is a reality and monetary solutions will not aid to avert it. Direct cash transfers have been initiated in Sweden( if my memory serves me right) with dismal results...inflation is well below the "ideal" 2%. A recently deceptive strong euro is certainly not helping the reflation cause.

The sooner they abandon these monetary experiments the sooner the structural issues can be dealt with.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Cde Monomotapa
#4755 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 9:05:10 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
lochaz-index wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
[quote=alutacontinua]Interesting take by Ray Dalio on what the future of Monetary Policy is likely to be by Central Banks

https://www.linkedin.com...eed-article-title-share[/quote]
CB's will go absolutely nuts when formulating policies to tame deflation. At this point, it's safe to say that QE4 will be an epic fail when it is launched.


Interesting.

Quote:

What Will MP3 Look Like?

While negative interest rates will make cash a bit less attractive (but not much), it won’t drive investors/savers to buy the sort of assets that will finance spending. And while QE will push asset prices somewhat higher, investors/savers will still want to save, lenders will still be cautious lenders, and cautious borrowers will remain cautious, so we will still have “pushing on a string.” As a result, Monetary Policy 3 will have to be directed at spenders more than at investors/savers.


Policy attempts so far have seen recycling back into fin. systems. OK. Now we have low energy (oil) prices making the reflation trickier. OK.

Is the writer suggesting a global welfare state of direct cash transfers? In the event, what would deter deleveraging since it is at a wider scale including those in gainful employment? Universal shopping vouchers perhaps? Interesting.

At what point will there be more money chasing after fewer goods? What measures will be there to curb, worse, unwind hyperinflation?

Interesting. All gold & OEs.

Deflation is a reality and monetary solutions will not aid to avert it. Direct cash transfers have been initiated in Sweden( if my memory serves me right) with dismal results...inflation is well below the "ideal" 2%. A recently deceptive strong euro is certainly not helping the reflation cause.

The sooner they abandon these monetary experiments the sooner the structural issues can be dealt with.


The Samurais @BoJ say, 'THERE IS PLENTY OF ROOM FOR FURTHER CUTS IN INTEREST RATES' Angel

Sino's soft landing package during (de)Industrial reforms: China to allocate 100 bln Yuan over 2 years for relocation of workers during restructuring - RTRS
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hisah
#4756 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2016 2:09:26 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
World trade value continues to dip to GFC levels.

Deflation sink hole gathering momentum!

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#4757 Posted : Saturday, February 27, 2016 9:16:58 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Time to buy gold: Deutsche Bank

By year end gold will have tested $1,000 handle and lower! When bankers preach gold, you run away very fast!

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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lochaz-index
#4758 Posted : Monday, February 29, 2016 2:48:25 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0002774631

Japan's population nightmare. Policy makers should concentrate on reflating this rather than the CPI.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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hisah
#4759 Posted : Monday, February 29, 2016 3:45:37 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
lochaz-index wrote:
http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0002774631

Japan's population nightmare. Policy makers should concentrate on reflating this rather than the CPI.

Invested population pyramid! They'll be forced to import labour! To import labour the yen must get muscular otherwise the labour won't be available. Strong yen will shutter their export trade while a weak yen will make it hard to import labour they desperately need to revert the public funds pyramid nightmare. Dilemma central. This will be an interesting case study.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#4760 Posted : Tuesday, March 01, 2016 4:07:40 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Shorting BARC has been a nice trade today smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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