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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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the deal wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:BTW,a 25 point fall tomorrow would see us break the Sept 6 bottom of 3357pts!
From there,only God knows where it'll settle! Eliot wave says the 2nd wave should not fall below the 1st wave...if that 3357 was the bottom like u say..which I strongly refuted and still refute...we just had a bounce for 4 days & people started screaming we have a bottom...i will have to look at the charts to see which wave is this...if its the first of another 9 wave cycle then definitely we will see 3000 or sub 3000 before year end but if its the the 2nd wave of the bottom and then it falls below 3357 then it means the bottom has been broken...but if we bounced back and rally past 3507 then we might say we have a bottom...but bloomberg is saying todays close is the 52 week low so which is which???  True, Bloomberg is correct on 52 weeks low, but to be precise, the last time the index was below 3,500 points before we got here was Jan 14th 2010. So between Oct 30th 2008 and Jan 14th 2010, the index was below 3,500 pts, i.e 15 months. Technically speaking, we could be sub 3,500 for the next 15 months, or more! It's happened before, 2001-2002, and then 2008-2009! It can happen again! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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jerry wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:cnn wrote: The NSE index down to 3383. And still 1,000 points above March 2009 lows! and about 1,300pts below what it was on 5th Aug-10. Correct! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Can it to get to 2,500 ASAP so as to plant for the next harvest! Nkt!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Can it to get to 2,500 ASAP so as to plant for the next harvest! Nkt! NSE 20-share index shed 21.76 points to close at 3,361.51 GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Until the ksh.stabilises enter this counters with caution:-all bank stocks,total,kk,e.a cables,neveready. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Can it to get to 2,500 ASAP so as to plant for the next harvest! Nkt! NSE 20-share index shed 21.76 points to close at 3,361.51 \n/ i'd like to be planted before the Oct-Dec short rains!!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604
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Could someone please rwmind me where the index was in January 2008. African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Sober wrote:Could someone please rwmind me where the index was in January 2008. Since you didn't specify a date I'll give you a few.
Jan 1 2008 - 5167
Jan 30 2008 - 4690
Just to see where NSE is post Lehman and after PEV.
Oct 24 2008 - 3373
Nov 28 2008 - 3386
Dec 18 2008 - 3367
Jul 3 2009 - 3381
Jul 7 2009 - 3359
Jan 12 2010 - 3344
Therefore if NSE index was tradable like the futures index market, if a you got in Oct 2008 as long term investor, your gains would be nil after 34 months. I am sure those who got into those 'well managed' equity funds aka unit trust in 2008 have not only lost their initial capital, but are just pissed off and tired of the long wait. Are we going to see another mutual fund redemption parade from tired investors? Yes we are...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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With NSE closing @3361 tomorrow will confirm if the pin off @3357 is broken. A close @3300 or lower depending on the selling pressure will negate a double bottom and open up a test of 3000 in coming weeks. But from the current structure, I'll safely exit the mpesa bet with zero gains minus commission. No need forcing trades. Britank dead cat bounce is now on reversal. @mlenny and PPT have jumped ship without alerting the rest! This reversal will test and break 5.35. @Ali baba - Please buy now then I short sell your holdings  KK - finally closes below 10/- It has been really stellar at holding that handle. Next 9.50 before 9. Those expecting 11 - 12, keep holding BBK - to test sub 11 by next week. That supply side is here to stay. AK - @QW - I never thought I'd say this, but 5 is too much a 5 star for it, sub 5 soon... Kengen - @cde - sub 9/- is coming. Sasini - finally mid 12. I want to see how the buyer handle it at these levels to confirm if 14 is still a solid barrier. Sub 12, will mean 14 remains intact until further notice... Scangroup has now popped up my radar after breaking below 38. Going lower and might test 30. And finally tranny - still no floor just like NBK. By Friday index close we will know if we are back to weekly selling... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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hisah wrote:Sober wrote:Could someone please rwmind me where the index was in January 2008. Since you didn't specify a date I'll give you a few.
Jan 1 2008 - 5167
Jan 30 2008 - 4690
Just to see where NSE is post Lehman and after PEV.
Oct 24 2008 - 3373
Nov 28 2008 - 3386
Dec 18 2008 - 3367
Jul 3 2009 - 3381
Jul 7 2009 - 3359
Jan 12 2010 - 3344
Therefore if NSE index was tradable like the futures index market, if a you got in Oct 2008 as long term investor, your gains would be nil after 34 months. I am sure those who got into those 'well managed' equity funds aka unit trust in 2008 have not only lost their initial capital, but are just pissed off and tired of the long wait. Are we going to see another mutual fund redemption parade from tired investors? Yes we are...
even better http://www.bloomberg.com...uote?ticker=KNSMIDX:IND
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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*Mr Elliot Wave in full swing*
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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NSE closes @3323 and below the pin off @3357. The double bottom theory goes to the dustbin and the bounce to 3500 was a fakeout on the 5, 10 & 20 day SMAs. I hope tomorrow my mpesa trade will be sold. As I stated yesterday, no need to force trades. For now I'll keep watch to see if we the index breaks through 3000 - 3080 zone which will confirm another bearish year (2012) for the NSE. KCB is attempting an NBK... Never thought the 17/- handle would lose support easily. KPLC will break the 17.05 low made on Aug 9th. Very bearish and its bro Kengen is also the same. Olympia closes below 4/-. Same price zone as Mpesa. SCB gives up the 190/- handle - the shareholders of this counter are usually mean, but that does not rule out a test of the rights price. We will see if Mr Market will get to that price. And as usual agri stocks still survive the 9 month Mr Market carnage since he's still trying to price the unlocking of the real estate value for those that will convert like Sasini. The dollar appreciation vs KES is also serving as an export cushion for coffee and tea income despite the drought affected output. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:NSE closes @3323 and below the pin off @3357. The double bottom theory goes to the dustbin and the bounce to 3500 was a fakeout on the 5, 10 & 20 day SMAs. I hope tomorrow my mpesa trade will be sold. As I stated yesterday, no need to force trades.
For now I'll keep watch to see if we the index breaks through 3000 - 3080 zone which will confirm another bearish year (2012) for the NSE.
KCB is attempting an NBK... Never thought the 17/- handle would lose support easily.
KPLC will break the 17.05 low made on Aug 9th. Very bearish and its bro Kengen is also the same.
Olympia closes below 4/-. Same price zone as Mpesa.
SCB gives up the 190/- handle - the shareholders of this counter are usually mean, but that does not rule out a test of the rights price. We will see if Mr Market will get to that price.
And as usual agri stocks still survive the 9 month Mr Market carnage since he's still trying to price the unlocking of the real estate value for those that will convert like Sasini. The dollar appreciation vs KES is also serving as an export cushion for coffee and tea income despite the drought affected output. @Hisah, Great piece, wonderful job! Watching and waiting to see how the market ends this week! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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[quote=the deal]@Hisah this two charts freak me out... http://live.mystocks.co.ke/m/stock=^N20I http://live.mystocks.co.ke/m/stock=KENO[/quote] @deal why? I've noticed volume spikes when the share was high. Exit volume. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/14/2011 Posts: 639
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@Holycow where did you get ths chart from.So dead on!You can post for the next period upto oct 2012?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/12/2010 Posts: 1,199 Location: Eastlander
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Hunderwear wrote:@Holycow where did you get ths chart from.So dead on!You can post for the next period upto oct 2012? Ngothawear.. ..charts are historical...not predictive...so for period to OCT 2012..you'l have to wait till Nov 1st 2012. ..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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ProverB wrote:Hunderwear wrote:@Holycow where did you get ths chart from.So dead on!You can post for the next period upto oct 2012? Ngothawear.. ..charts are historical...not predictive... so for period to OCT 2012..you'l have to wait till Nov 1st 2012.  ... and i thought i was the only one capable of dumb answers ..lol
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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[quote=the deal]@Hisah this two charts freak me out... http://live.mystocks.co.ke/m/stock=^N20I http://live.mystocks.co.ke/m/stock=KENO[/quote] Whoa! That NSE volume spike is nasty. Yikes! I'm definitely sticking to T-bills.
As for KK, I have stated enough times once 12/- was hit money had been made with a huge exit volume. 52 week low is 9/- It will register a new low soon.
Didn't look at the market yesterday and now I see bbk is sub 11 even before end of week! Tranny @25 which is 50% down since market intro! What if it were on the main market? Britank will also exceed 50% downdraft. Centum headed to 12/-. The centum user could give u more insider clues during this market winter. Eqty is back to 17/- levels & hfck at 16/- levels. I had stated these 2 were on an unsustainable hard bounce. Kq approaching 25/-. Below this handle 17 is the next stage - 2009 lows with rights coming up. Kplc might break 17.05 - 52 week low today. 16 & lower next week.
Eh total @17/- levels, brrr... baridi kali hii.
Unga counter is on a stealth rally. Cant see anything on the charts. Pump & dump?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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NSE-20 Share Index - 3284.06 All Share Index - 69.38 Equity Turnover - 183.11 Million Total Deals - 971 Total Shares Traded 15.93 Million GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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