obiero wrote:ArrestedDev wrote:maka wrote:http://nazret.com/blog/index.php/2016/06/30/ethiopian-airlines-says-looking-at
We really need someone who can be on top of things at KQ lest we get swallowed yet we have a good product and well trained manpower at our disposal. The vision 2025 mentioned in the article is our 'project mawingu'.
The biggest mistake that could happen right now is to loose the institutional memory of KQ by firing Ngunze who is the last man standing after all other directors were either fired or resigned.. Let the new guys come in and gradually they shall absorb the wealth of knowledge held by Ngunze.. One year shall be enough. Meanwhile, we await the impressive full year results and outstanding Q1 2016-2017
@ ArrestedDev seem to have either or both of the following biases…
Hindsight Bias
Tends to occur in situations where a person believes (after the fact) that the onset of some past event was predictable and completely obvious, whereas in fact, the event could not have been reasonably predicted.
Many events seem obvious in hindsight. Psychologists attribute hindsight bias to our innate need to find order in the world by creating explanations that allow us to believe that events are predictable. While this sense of curiosity is useful in many cases (take science, for example), finding erroneous links between the cause and effect of an event may result in incorrect oversimplifications.
Cognitive Bias
Think of a cognitive bias as a rule of thumb that may or may not be factual. We’ve all seen movies where a thief wears a police uniform to pass through a security checkpoint. The real police officers assume that because the person is wearing a uniform like theirs, he must be a real police officer. That’s an example of a cognitive bias.
What does a fake cop have to do with your investment choices? You make the same types of assumptions that aren’t necessarily true. Here is an example:
Negativity Bias: The bull market is alive and well, yet many investors have missed the rally because of the fear that it will reverse course.
Negativity bias causes investors to put more weight on bad news than on good. Some might call this risk management, but this bias can cause the effects of risk to hold more weight than the possibility of reward.