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Kenya Economy Watch
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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We need more of these http://www.businessdaily...0/-/hp5r06z/-/index.html"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/10/2008 Posts: 365
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http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Inflation-eases-to-6-87pc-on-rising-food-supply/-/539546/2733886/-/poirap/-/index.htmlInflation is easing ?? Really, even with the shillings weak position at the moment ? something seems oddly wrong with the way we calculate our inflation figures
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
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With the announcement of the nominee for the central bank;the Kenyan currency has started strengthening versus major world currencies Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Regional leaders launch implementation authorityQuote:The Heads of State under the Northern Corridor Integration Projects (NCIP) initiative have formed an authority that will primarily fast track implementation of agreed on decisions.
The Northern Corridor is the transport network that links the landlocked countries of Uganda Rwanda, South Sudan and Burundi to Kenya’s Maritime Port of Mombasa. Quote:Ethiopia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, EAC Secretary General Dr. Richard Sezibera and Donat Bagula the Executive Secretary of the Northern Corridor Transit and Transport Coordination Authority (NCTTCA) attended as observers.
DRC and Tanzania sent some senior officials to represent them. The next Summit will be held in Nairobi, Kenya in two months time http://www.newtimes.co.r...ticle/2015-06-07/189509/
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Open Africa’s skies to facilitate travel – tourism ministersQuote:HARARE, June 19 (The Source) – Africa needs to open up its airspace to improve connectivity which is seen as crucial to facilitating ease of movement for tourists across the continent which is desperate for income, South Africa’s tourism minister Derek Hanekom has said. The United Nations World Tourism (UNWTO) reports that global tourism has been on the rise, putting 2014 travellers at 1,138 billion. Africa’s share of the tourism receipts and arrivals is a mere five percent.
Hanekom who was speaking at a tourism conference in Harare on Thursday said improved air networks would encourage more visitors to travel across Africa, giving the continent a bigger share of the global market. “Our own aviation policies are to blame for the small share which we account for. We have countries protecting their own national carriers not wanting to open up to competition,” Hanekom said. [name names..  ] http://source.co.zw/2015...ravel-tourism-ministers/
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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murchr #889 Posted : Friday, May 01, 2015 1:40:47 PM
wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Paradox...Is the shilling weakening? How is the shilling doing when measured against the Yen, Euro, RMB? The dollar is strengthening ... against all currencies. The global trade currency is the $. Current account deficit is very sensitive to KES weakness vs $. Dollar reserves are finite unless you can print the $ which CBK can't. This is why I state if $KES rate becomes volatile CBK will be forced to hike CBR. That will make liquidity tight and spike interest rates both deposits and loans and pull the handbrake on the econ. For an econ already on a slump as per those KNBS statistics, a CBR hike will be a nasty curveball.
The proposed budget is expansionary, but KES weakness might just pour cold water to that stimulus. A tricky delicate balance for treasury.
@mukiri - 8% dividend yield or better if you plan to stay put in risky assets as well as NAV discounts (fat tails)as equities price dips. Equities trading close to NAV ride out the storm best. Fixed income (tbills, fixed deposits etc) too offers nice returns of 10% and above when risky assets get clobbered. If not sure what to do just keep your cash. Given that the USD is the global medium of exchange and its bound continue strengthening in the foreseeable future, don't you think the status quo (weak Ksh vs USD) remains up until we reduce our imports and boost our exports...bring in more tourists...or pump out that crude and start selling it.... am seeing 100 hitting before Dec 2015. CBR hike will be nasty indeed.  It was going to be that soon June 29 "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Kenya needs to make investments worth Sh1.7 trillion each year if the country is to attain growth rates of over 10 per cent annually, National Treasury Cabinet Secretary, Henry Rotich has said. Such investments, equivalent to 32 per cent of the country’s GDP would be channelled to critical sectors in energy and infrastructure development. “We need investment level of about 32 per cent of GDP for us to achieve a 10 per cent growth. Mobilisation of savings to that level is very critical that is why we are emphasizing the financial sector to contribute to raising of these savings for the investment needs that we require in our economy to double digit growth,” Mr Rotich said in Nairobi on Tuesday. http://www.nation.co.ke/...8/-/f8pjlhz/-/index.html"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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murchr wrote:Kenya needs to make investments worth Sh1.7 trillion each year if the country is to attain growth rates of over 10 per cent annually, National Treasury Cabinet Secretary, Henry Rotich has said. Such investments, equivalent to 32 per cent of the country’s GDP would be channelled to critical sectors in energy and infrastructure development. “We need investment level of about 32 per cent of GDP for us to achieve a 10 per cent growth. Mobilisation of savings to that level is very critical that is why we are emphasizing the financial sector to contribute to raising of these savings for the investment needs that we require in our economy to double digit growth,” Mr Rotich said in Nairobi on Tuesday. http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/f8pjlhz/-/index.html
By taxing everything and hiking the CBR... Great. Let's see how that capital will come calling.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Greek crisis: 'We rely on imports. Soon even the most basic goods won't be available’Does this sound familiar in KE? $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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This is my greatest fear, unlike the Hellenic nation, we have capacity to produce but we're very heavily reliant on things foreign...who wonders why we have such high numbers of unemployment yet we want to eat eggs laid in SA.....if we dont tame the import appetite then we'll be a Greece in the making. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Impetus on the Africa Airspace. Aviation: The next infrastructure growth frontier for AfricaQuote: The air transport industry in Africa is on the resurgence and aviation is, “The next infrastructure growth frontier for Africa”. This was the message at the International Air Transport Association (IATA) Aviation Day for Africa and the Middle East held at Intercontinental Hotel in Nairobi, Kenya, on June 23-24, 2015 under the theme, “Connecting Africa: The Linkage of Regulation, Capacity and Infrastructure”. http://www.afdb.org/en/n...ntier-for-africa-14478/
Eurocontrol and IATA to support improvement of AIS in Africa - See more at: http://www.africanaerosp...d&utm_medium=twitter
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Kenya announced a 4.9 per cent economic growth in the 1st quarter of 2015 compared to 4.7 per cent at the same period in 2014 fired on by all cylinders except tourism. Kenya’s economy grew by 4.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2015 compared to 4.7 per cent in a similar period in 2014 supported by all sectors of the economy but tourism. http://www.nation.co.ke/...8/-/4yvpbkz/-/index.html"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Shilling feels the pressure as trade deficit rises 59%Quote:The gap between Kenya’s imports and exports widened a massive 59 per cent or Sh37.7 billion in the first quarter of the year, explaining the significant depreciation of the shilling.
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) reported the gap, also known as the current account deficit, stood at Sh101.5 billion, up from Sh63.7 billion recorded in the same quarter last year. Much of the exports pertain to the standard gauge railway construction.
“The deterioration in the current account balance was mainly occasioned by the increase in the import bill and the decline in the value of total exports in the same period. As a consequence, the current account balance recorded a deficit of Sh101.5 billion in the first quarter of 2015 compared to a deficit of Sh63.8 billion in the first quarter of 2014,” said the KNBS.
But those concerned and sitting at the ivory tower expect KES to become muscular! USD/KES > 100 today! That was my line in the sand to get out of the equity market completely until the market gets its head back.MPC sits tomorrow with a new governor in place. Their work is well cut out to say the least. Then add the curry flavour courtesy of Greece crisis and you can see the headwinds coming. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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hisah wrote:Shilling feels the pressure as trade deficit rises 59%Quote:The gap between Kenya’s imports and exports widened a massive 59 per cent or Sh37.7 billion in the first quarter of the year, explaining the significant depreciation of the shilling.
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) reported the gap, also known as the current account deficit, stood at Sh101.5 billion, up from Sh63.7 billion recorded in the same quarter last year. Much of the exports pertain to the standard gauge railway construction.
“The deterioration in the current account balance was mainly occasioned by the increase in the import bill and the decline in the value of total exports in the same period. As a consequence, the current account balance recorded a deficit of Sh101.5 billion in the first quarter of 2015 compared to a deficit of Sh63.8 billion in the first quarter of 2014,” said the KNBS.
But those concerned and sitting at the ivory tower expect KES to become muscular! USD/KES > 100 today! That was my line in the sand to get out of the equity market completely until the market gets its head back.MPC sits tomorrow with a new governor in place. Their work is well cut out to say the least. Then add the curry flavour courtesy of Greece crisis and you can see the headwinds coming. Doesn't seem well thought out for me. The SGR should be taking nothing away from the country, my understanding is that it comes with foreign funding (in most parts goods needed are bartered directly for debt that does not yet exist) so should ideally have no impact on our BOP. If anything it should improve our BOP due to the local input thats majorly labour and whatever else the shainese didn't ship over and have to purchase locally. "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Of the Top 10 items imported in Kenya is Rice and Wheat....Let the dollar rise, if we cant plant wheat and rice then we'll starve. 1 2710 Refined Petroleum $2,703,673,845.00 19% 2 3004 Packaged Medicaments $400,517,587.00 2.9% 3 8703 Cars $392,772,064.00 2.8% 4 8704 Delivery Trucks $299,813,308.00 2.1% 5 7208 Hot-Rolled Iron $294,642,109.00 2.1% 6 1001 Wheat $267,141,151.00 1.9% 7 8802 Planes, Helicopters, and/or Spacecraft $231,524,490.00 1.7% 8 1006 Rice $216,378,571.00 1.5% 9 8517 Telephones $210,715,626.00 1.5% 10 1511 Palm Oil "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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murchr wrote:Of the Top 10 items imported in Kenya is Rice and Wheat....Let the dollar rise, if we cant plant wheat and rice then we'll starve.
1 2710 Refined Petroleum $2,703,673,845.00 19%
2 3004 Packaged Medicaments $400,517,587.00 2.9%
3 8703 Cars $392,772,064.00 2.8%
4 8704 Delivery Trucks $299,813,308.00 2.1%
5 7208 Hot-Rolled Iron $294,642,109.00 2.1%
6 1001 Wheat $267,141,151.00 1.9%
7 8802 Planes, Helicopters, and/or Spacecraft $231,524,490.00 1.7%
8 1006 Rice $216,378,571.00 1.5%
9 8517 Telephones $210,715,626.00 1.5%
10 1511 Palm Oil Jameni jameni hata mchele .kwani no one can encourage farmers to grow Ngano . Someone should sit down cs wa agriculture and cs wa finance and teach them how they can control the dollar rate with simple arithmetic
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:hisah wrote:Shilling feels the pressure as trade deficit rises 59%Quote:The gap between Kenya’s imports and exports widened a massive 59 per cent or Sh37.7 billion in the first quarter of the year, explaining the significant depreciation of the shilling.
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) reported the gap, also known as the current account deficit, stood at Sh101.5 billion, up from Sh63.7 billion recorded in the same quarter last year. Much of the exports pertain to the standard gauge railway construction.
“The deterioration in the current account balance was mainly occasioned by the increase in the import bill and the decline in the value of total exports in the same period. As a consequence, the current account balance recorded a deficit of Sh101.5 billion in the first quarter of 2015 compared to a deficit of Sh63.8 billion in the first quarter of 2014,” said the KNBS.
But those concerned and sitting at the ivory tower expect KES to become muscular! USD/KES > 100 today! That was my line in the sand to get out of the equity market completely until the market gets its head back.MPC sits tomorrow with a new governor in place. Their work is well cut out to say the least. Then add the curry flavour courtesy of Greece crisis and you can see the headwinds coming. Doesn't seem well thought out for me. The SGR should be taking nothing away from the country, my understanding is that it comes with foreign funding (in most parts goods needed are bartered directly for debt that does not yet exist) so should ideally have no impact on our BOP. If anything it should improve our BOP due to the local input thats majorly labour and whatever else the shainese didn't ship over and have to purchase locally. did u say SGR does not take anything away from the country? where does the steel? machinery cement and such come from?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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2015 KE econ theme job cuts... Recession is here. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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kizee1 wrote:Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:hisah wrote:Shilling feels the pressure as trade deficit rises 59%Quote:The gap between Kenya’s imports and exports widened a massive 59 per cent or Sh37.7 billion in the first quarter of the year, explaining the significant depreciation of the shilling.
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) reported the gap, also known as the current account deficit, stood at Sh101.5 billion, up from Sh63.7 billion recorded in the same quarter last year. Much of the exports pertain to the standard gauge railway construction.
“The deterioration in the current account balance was mainly occasioned by the increase in the import bill and the decline in the value of total exports in the same period. As a consequence, the current account balance recorded a deficit of Sh101.5 billion in the first quarter of 2015 compared to a deficit of Sh63.8 billion in the first quarter of 2014,” said the KNBS.
But those concerned and sitting at the ivory tower expect KES to become muscular! USD/KES > 100 today! That was my line in the sand to get out of the equity market completely until the market gets its head back.MPC sits tomorrow with a new governor in place. Their work is well cut out to say the least. Then add the curry flavour courtesy of Greece crisis and you can see the headwinds coming. Doesn't seem well thought out for me. The SGR should be taking nothing away from the country, my understanding is that it comes with foreign funding (in most parts goods needed are bartered directly for debt that does not yet exist) so should ideally have no impact on our BOP. If anything it should improve our BOP due to the local input thats majorly labour and whatever else the shainese didn't ship over and have to purchase locally. did u say SGR does not take anything away from the country? where does the steel? machinery cement and such come from? It does not matter where the raw materials come from, the cost incurred are actually FDI. Remember the project is for now being financed by the Shainese and I presume there is a moratorium on repayment of the loan until the project is complete. So no cash outflows. My 2 cents? "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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how does an import become FDI?
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