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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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snipermnoma wrote:hisah wrote:Bounce progress as expected. The real test will be if 4000 will hold on the next nosedive episode. That level has to hold if bulls are to survive!
Global equities are still undecided, but I expect another downside episode soon. Meanwhile USD to Kes. has been hovered around 105 for two weeks (one might say at least Kes is not sliding but with all the intervention why is it not improving either?) In the same two weeks NSE 20 has been in a narrow band 4125 to 4260. today 91 T-bill rate at 14.486%, higher than 182 T-bill which is at 13.861% and higher than the coupon on most bonds. This points to a recovery without legs. The steam will run out soon. I agree with @hisah 4000 will be tested with support at 3930.79 as per @mnandii post The money market is signalling stress! Interbank rate is above 20% again like in August while the 182 and 364 day tbills are getting undersubscribed. Nobody willing to pack money there at the current rates as 91 day rate is almost vaulting the 364 day rate! The dread inverted yield curve is almost striking home! A clear recession sign as liquidity squeeze continues.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/6/2014 Posts: 268 Location: Nairobi, Kenya
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hisah wrote:snipermnoma wrote:hisah wrote:Bounce progress as expected. The real test will be if 4000 will hold on the next nosedive episode. That level has to hold if bulls are to survive!
Global equities are still undecided, but I expect another downside episode soon. Meanwhile USD to Kes. has been hovered around 105 for two weeks (one might say at least Kes is not sliding but with all the intervention why is it not improving either?) In the same two weeks NSE 20 has been in a narrow band 4125 to 4260. today 91 T-bill rate at 14.486%, higher than 182 T-bill which is at 13.861% and higher than the coupon on most bonds. This points to a recovery without legs. The steam will run out soon. I agree with @hisah 4000 will be tested with support at 3930.79 as per @mnandii post The money market is signalling stress! Interbank rate is above 20% again like in August while the 182 and 364 day tbills are getting undersubscribed. Nobody willing to pack money there at the current rates as 91 day rate is almost vaulting the 364 day rate! The dread inverted yield curve is almost striking home! A clear recession sign as liquidity squeeze continues. True, if you can be cited in an authoritative daily for porfolio worth kshs 40,000 then you know where we are headed.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/28/2014 Posts: 149 Location: Nairobi
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Akenyan2014...what are you on about? In English, please? When you live for others' opinions, you are dead.
- Carlos Slim Helu
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/3/2014 Posts: 245
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This week the Central Bank of Kenya offered 91-day Treasury Bills for a total of Kshs.4 Billion. The total number of bids received was 215 amounting to Kshs.3.78 Billion, representing a subscription of 94.53 %. Total bids accepted amounted to Kshs.3.06 Billion.The market weighted average rate was 15.167 %, and the weighted average of accepted bids which will be applied for non-competitive bids was 14.486% up from 13.858% in the previous auction. Download the summarised auction statistics in PDF.A Not a bad place to park your loot your loot waiting for the bottom. In the world of securities, courage and patience become the supreme virtues after adequate knowledge and a tested judgment are at hand.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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DBLyon wrote:Akenyan2014...what are you on about? In English, please? @DBLyon you need to open the link and read how a Sudan Prof is the tenth largest foreign owner of Eveready for having bought 13,200 shared valued at 40K   Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your lifeโs energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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@murchir this is serious bro ๐๐๐ . I wish I could do the same just to be seen as one of majority shareholder this has made my Friday
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
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Stupid journalism by business daily;to post this nonsense staff on the newspaper.Kwani hakuna business news and the way I see foreign media have captivating news about kenya Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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In the coming weeks I expect NSE 20 Share Index to drop significantly below 4000 level.  Socionomically, it is interesting that the big drop from 5499 level made in March, 2015 to the 4080 lows now has created problems for the government. The KE gov. lost its case against teachers in the courts, teachers dug in and are on strike, the gov. responded by closing schools (including private ones, thereby opening a new 'war front' with a different category of the populace). The opposition has announced impeachment proceedings against the government... Expect similar and even worse situations going forward as the bear market catches steam. This is what we have always maintained. When the stock market drops significantly, expect political, economic and other social ills including war. If the stock market rises, implying an elevation in social mood, expect good economic performance, a generally 'happy' populace, increased investment, peace etc. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:Erh! Ahem!
I think this worry about USDKES exchange rate is misplaced. Me believes there is no way the previous high of 108 Kes to USD will be breached. Kes will rise strongly against the USD soon!
I had posted this chart of the Exchange rate earlier this year. By then I was looking for the Kes to weaken.  The weakness should complete soon. Then we go below 70 Kes to 1 Dollar.  Actually, the reason I say 108 level shld not be broken is the wave 1 in the chart (which I label as impulse). The fall from the all-time high of 108 to about 82 is clearly an impulse wave. The weakness in the Kes we are experiencing now is a wave 2, a counter-trend rally. Second waves can never retrace more than 100% of first waves! So, expect Kes to strengthen against the Dollar in the coming months. NB: Another good reason why I don't expect 108 to be breached is the mood surrounding the weakening shilling. Everybody is crying and lamenting how the future for the Kes is bleak. This is pre-requisite for a turn!  In focus. Stated June 19th, 2015 mnandii wrote: I continue to consider that USDKES should not reach 106.80 level. Stated July 12th, 2015. Corrections can be long and messy. Looking for USDKES to cross below 100 soon. As always, IF, and that is a BIG if, the pair surpasses 106.80 then we'll reconsider the wave count. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Pensions fund probed over Sh10bn revenue loss claimQuote:The anti-corruption commission is investigating allegations that at least Sh10 billion in workersโ contributions to the giant National Social Security Fund (NSSF) is at stake following migration to a new information management system.
According to documents seen by Sunday Nation โ which have been surrendered to the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission and the Labour ministry โ the amount in question includes unpaid contributions by employers, uncollected penalties and accrued penalties between 1998 and June 2013. linkExpect to read about more scandals like these. It is sad, but if you depend on your pension to cater for you in your old age, the you better think again. Pension firms invest in stocks, real estate and other financial assets. With a bear market in all these assets expect them to bleed badly. The government ones are also a cash-cow for the politicians.  Read 'Conquer the Crash' which you should have read yesterday.  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:snipermnoma wrote:hisah wrote:Bounce progress as expected. The real test will be if 4000 will hold on the next nosedive episode. That level has to hold if bulls are to survive!
Global equities are still undecided, but I expect another downside episode soon. Meanwhile USD to Kes. has been hovered around 105 for two weeks (one might say at least Kes is not sliding but with all the intervention why is it not improving either?) In the same two weeks NSE 20 has been in a narrow band 4125 to 4260. today 91 T-bill rate at 14.486%, higher than 182 T-bill which is at 13.861% and higher than the coupon on most bonds. This points to a recovery without legs. The steam will run out soon. I agree with @hisah 4000 will be tested with support at 3930.79 as per @mnandii post The money market is signalling stress! Interbank rate is above 20% again like in August while the 182 and 364 day tbills are getting undersubscribed. Nobody willing to pack money there at the current rates as 91 day rate is almost vaulting the 364 day rate! The dread inverted yield curve is almost striking home! A clear recession sign ask liquidity squeeze continues. Last time out they lowered the CRR when the interbank rate overheated. The reserves are stripped to below the minimum 4 months courtesy of fire fighting by the cbk. The metrics are beginning to look upside down. Slowly the guys are getting cornered. The markets reacted furiously to the fed's inaction. Doomed if you do, doomed if you don't seems to be the script. More pain coming up. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/15/2015 Posts: 817
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:snipermnoma wrote:hisah wrote:Bounce progress as expected. The real test will be if 4000 will hold on the next nosedive episode. That level has to hold if bulls are to survive!
Global equities are still undecided, but I expect another downside episode soon. Meanwhile USD to Kes. has been hovered around 105 for two weeks (one might say at least Kes is not sliding but with all the intervention why is it not improving either?) In the same two weeks NSE 20 has been in a narrow band 4125 to 4260. today 91 T-bill rate at 14.486%, higher than 182 T-bill which is at 13.861% and higher than the coupon on most bonds. This points to a recovery without legs. The steam will run out soon. I agree with @hisah 4000 will be tested with support at 3930.79 as per @mnandii post The money market is signalling stress! Interbank rate is above 20% again like in August while the 182 and 364 day tbills are getting undersubscribed. Nobody willing to pack money there at the current rates as 91 day rate is almost vaulting the 364 day rate! The dread inverted yield curve is almost striking home! A clear recession sign ask liquidity squeeze continues. Last time out they lowered the CRR when the interbank rate overheated. The reserves are stripped to below the minimum 4 months courtesy of fire fighting by the cbk. The metrics are beginning to look upside down. Slowly the guys are getting cornered. The markets reacted furiously to the fed's inaction. Doomed if you do, doomed if you don't seems to be the script. More pain coming up. The rates were maintained at 11.5%. CBK Maintans Rate
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Low divorce rates suggest a slowing economy@mnandii, an interesting socio-econ view of KE. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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I don't buy into this "research" that for all purposes is a copy and paste of American literature and substitute of Kenya for USA. USA is very capitalist, individualistic, polygamy/bigamy is a crime, divorce is taken casually. Kenyan marriages are deeply entrenched in community and the church. Divorce is stigmatized, polygamy / MWK tolerated. Divorce rates in USA as high as 18 per 1000 couples. 200 divorces in Nairobi barely significant to establish correlation. Many people in USA are on hourly/piece meal rates so recession hits hard. Most Kenyans are state employees or subsistence farmers, recession hardly registers. The writer has not done scientific research to establish correlation between divorce and economic conditions in Kenya neither cited any. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/2/2009 Posts: 2,458 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:I don't buy into this "research" that for all purposes is a copy and paste of American literature and substitute of Kenya for USA. USA is very capitalist, individualistic, polygamy/bigamy is a crime, divorce is taken casually. Kenyan marriages are deeply entrenched in community and the church. Divorce is stigmatized, polygamy / MWK tolerated. Divorce rates in USA as high as 18 per 1000 couples. 200 divorces in Nairobi barely significant to establish correlation. Many people in USA are on hourly/piece meal rates so recession hits hard. Most Kenyans are state employees or subsistence farmers, recession hardly registers. The writer has not done scientific research to establish correlation between divorce and economic conditions in Kenya neither cited any. well said @Sparkly
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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The rebound in september has been strong, one can almost feel like the bear is dead The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2007 Posts: 294
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Aguytrying wrote:The rebound in september has been strong, one can almost feel like the bear is dead I have that strange "instinct"too. In the absence of some traffic event we could be headed north
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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