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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mlennyma wrote:@aguy you are the driver,tell obiero to keep off,he was heard saying this bus is over valued at 30bob first he said it wont reach 25, then after it reached he said it won't reach 30.00. after 30.00 I think sasa he'd better stop predicting. he was a good driver but jumped out too early. target for end 2014 remains 40. even 45. sitting on 118% gains. home run!! The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:@aguy you are the driver,tell obiero to keep off,he was heard saying this bus is over valued at 30bob first he said it wont reach 25, then after it reached he said it won't reach 30.00. after 30.00 I think sasa he'd better stop predicting. he was a good driver but jumped out too early. target for end 2014 remains 40. even 45. sitting on 118% gains. home run!! @aguy 25??? why give false testimony against a brother, weka link!!!
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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obiero wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:@aguy you are the driver,tell obiero to keep off,he was heard saying this bus is over valued at 30bob first he said it wont reach 25, then after it reached he said it won't reach 30.00. after 30.00 I think sasa he'd better stop predicting. he was a good driver but jumped out too early. target for end 2014 remains 40. even 45. sitting on 118% gains. home run!! @aguy 25??? why give false testimony against a brother, weka link!!! I rem so well. I can find it if I look. lets just let this whole driver thing go. we win some we lose some. happy hunting, all the best in kq. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:obiero wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:@aguy you are the driver,tell obiero to keep off,he was heard saying this bus is over valued at 30bob first he said it wont reach 25, then after it reached he said it won't reach 30.00. after 30.00 I think sasa he'd better stop predicting. he was a good driver but jumped out too early. target for end 2014 remains 40. even 45. sitting on 118% gains. home run!! @aguy 25??? why give false testimony against a brother, weka link!!! I rem so well. I can find it if I look. lets just let this whole driver thing go. we win some we lose some. happy hunting, all the best in kq. Agreed. After all, you are the driver but its my bus!!! *lowblow* :)
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/7/2007 Posts: 2,182
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40 is coming I am positive of it LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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obiero wrote:Aguytrying wrote:obiero wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:@aguy you are the driver,tell obiero to keep off,he was heard saying this bus is over valued at 30bob first he said it wont reach 25, then after it reached he said it won't reach 30.00. after 30.00 I think sasa he'd better stop predicting. he was a good driver but jumped out too early. target for end 2014 remains 40. even 45. sitting on 118% gains. home run!! @aguy 25??? why give false testimony against a brother, weka link!!! I rem so well. I can find it if I look. lets just let this whole driver thing go. we win some we lose some. happy hunting, all the best in kq. Agreed. After all, you are the driver but its my bus!!! *lowblow* :) besides you were promoted to a pilot  without decisiveness you can't do well in stocks, kudos on kq that was very decisive and is paying off. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Metasploit wrote:jerry wrote:Metasploit wrote:mlennyma wrote:@aguy you are the driver,tell obiero to keep off,he was heard saying this bus is over valued at 30bob 30 was a major resistance in the 3 year chart! 35 is the next level but not before a correction as indicators are overbought If the "cartoon" shows diminishing supply do we talk of a correction? Demand; 284,400 against supply of 125,900. Sold at 31/= but I've no regrets. Supply dried out as there were many sellers at 29-31. The indicators are almost overbrought so expect sizable supply at 34-35.Though this will be shallow as HFCK always announces FY results in early Feb.  Good bidding at 32-33. Once the supply at 34 is taken,the stock will most likely head to 37.That is more than 10% from current prices. For now it seems there will be sideway trading between 32-34 with occassional lows of 31.50 till mid Jan (HFCK announces FY early Feb)
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Metasploit wrote:Metasploit wrote:jerry wrote:Metasploit wrote:mlennyma wrote:@aguy you are the driver,tell obiero to keep off,he was heard saying this bus is over valued at 30bob 30 was a major resistance in the 3 year chart! 35 is the next level but not before a correction as indicators are overbought If the "cartoon" shows diminishing supply do we talk of a correction? Demand; 284,400 against supply of 125,900. Sold at 31/= but I've no regrets. Supply dried out as there were many sellers at 29-31. The indicators are almost overbrought so expect sizable supply at 34-35.Though this will be shallow as HFCK always announces FY results in early Feb. Good bidding at 32-33. Once the supply at 34 is taken,the stock will most likely head to 37.That is more than 10% from current prices. For now it seems there will be sideway trading between 32-34 with occassional lows of 31.50 till mid Jan (HFCK announces FY early Feb) My target 12 months is KShs 40, no less! Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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this stock is worth no less than 45.00 between now and q4 2014. looking further ahead 100+ in 3-4 yrs if a good profit growth rate is maintained. plus the housing industry keeps saying there is a shortage, time for hfck to prove this The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/1/2013 Posts: 257
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For the late comers like i, who 'dandiad' @27 less than 4 weeks ago... we are up 20% & still strong.closing @33.50 No diagnosis,no pragnosis,no pragnosis no profit......Jesse livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/3/2007 Posts: 146
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sorovi wrote:We initiate a BUY recommendation on Housing Finance Corporation of Kenya (HFCK) with a target price of Kes. 37.64 representing an upside potential of 27.58% from the current price of Kes. 29.50. We employed the PE and PB valuation methods to get the aggregate price of Kes. 37.64 and a dividend yield of 4.01%.
HFCK was incorporated in 1965 as the only fully fledged mortgage provider and is currently the second largest mortgage provider in Kenya.
Identified key drivers are:
§ Diversified Mortgage Products: HFCK has developed mortgage products which are in three main categories; mortgage financing, construction financing and retail banking solutions. The forex trading account was recently introduced.
§ Strong Market Share: The Company’s market share stands at 25%, second after KCB’s Savings & Loans (S&L) Mortgage.
§ Technology Upgrade: The mortgage financier is in the process of rolling out an electronic core banking platform by Q2 2014, which will be aimed at improving efficiency levels and customer relations.
§ Customercentric Products: HFCK’s ability to introduce innovative products, like the partly fixed mortgage products to counter varying inflation rates and the Ezesha Product which is tailormade for those unable to raise the upfront mortgage costs.
§ Flagship Project: The Komarok Phase 5A project commenced in 2012 and it entails constructing 162 homes on a 9 acre piece of land with a target retail price of Kes. 6.8Mn per unit. According to management, 90% of the project has been completed and sold, with the remainder expected to be completed by November 2013.
§ Leveraging on Partnerships: HFCK are in partnership with Equity Bank and BRITAM who hold 24.9% and 20% respectively of the company’s stock. BRITAM has insured the Ezesha product, while Equity Bank has the highest customer base comprising mainly of middle and low income earners with a deposit base of over Kes. 75Bn. HFCK on the other hand is focusing on developing mortgage products that will cater for these type of clientele.
Key risks and limitations:
§ Constraints in Mortgage Funding: Caused by liquidity constraints and maturity mismatch particularly between long term lending and short term deposits responsible for the uptick in NPLs from Q3 2012’s figure of Kes. 1.42Bn to Kes. 2.43Bn in Q3 2013.
§ High Cost of Funds: The Company’s cost of funds stood at 7.46% in 2012, the highest among its peers. This figure is above the industry’s average of 6.01%.
§ Competititive Mortgage Rates: Other mortgage providers are offering relatively lower mortgage rates – Stanchart at 12.9% for 45 days, CfC Stanbic at 13.5%, Barclays Bank of Kenya 15.5% and KCB S&L at 16%, as compared to HFCK. It should however be noted that HFCK recently reduced its lending rate by 200bps to 16%.
§ The Looming Capital Gains Tax: If effected, property owners will feel the negative impact on rental income.
§ Complexity in Land Registration: The existing land registration regulations are complex and discouraging to potential land owners.
though the BUY recommendation came in late in the party.. seems like we are heading there kazi iendelee 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:this stock is worth no less than 45.00 between now and q4 2014.
looking further ahead 100+ in 3-4 yrs if a good profit growth rate is maintained. plus the housing industry keeps saying there is a shortage, time for hfck to prove this @aguy hope and delusion are close relatives.. 100 for HFCK in 3yrs? all the best
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Some 36M shares valued at Kes.690M were traded in 2,000 deals, down from 29M shares that were valued at Kes.751M posted yesterday. The NSE 20 Share Index was down 0.74% or 37.49 points to stand at 5005.45. All Share Index (NASI) shed 1.95 points to stand at 137.91. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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murchr wrote:Some 36M shares valued at Kes.690M were traded in 2,000 deals, down from 29M shares that were valued at Kes.751M posted yesterday.
The NSE 20 Share Index was down 0.74% or 37.49 points to stand at 5005.45.
All Share Index (NASI) shed 1.95 points to stand at 137.91. Will support at 5000 hold ? I doubt.This taper thing will bring down the blue chips seriously. Noticed equity touched a low of 33.5,KCB support of 45 is being tested and might be broken,safcom touched a low of 10,EABL support of 300 being tested and might be broken.Coz it started today na bado!!
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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i recommend a buy at circa kes 27
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 11/17/2013 Posts: 80 Location: Juja
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obiero wrote:i recommend a buy at circa kes 27 Me too plus TCL for 40/44 On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:i recommend a buy at circa kes 27 Oh so now its transformed from a sell to a buy without any changes in news?? Talk about watermelons  And to put it simply... Its a buy TODAY!! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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the day ill sell my hfck shares, people will be calling be the new young ( the Nigerian) The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Aguytrying wrote:the day ill sell my hfck shares, people will be calling be the new young ( the Nigerian) HF is great but its not good to fall in love with a stock like this...it can cloud your judgement...remember Kenol Kobil...:)
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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
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