Wazua
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
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@Wa_ithaka. Even with a proxy of 10%, how can one deflate debt btw? Maybe one can deflate the interest payments on our debt but not the debt itself. If u owe something, is remains unchanged over time, repaid in full. @tonicasert. Do you think CBK can raise the cash ratio upwards like the PBoC and RBI? They wud need a goldenberg style inflation scenario to do so. You mentioned that they required to " keep more funds with CB at no return. End result is less loans dished out, less money in circulation, and a checked inflation". What Treasury is doing now is a less permanent solution than what you've mentioned above, but essentially the same, in that they're using govt borrowing to keep more funds at CBK at no return. The biggest consequence is that our debt is climbing and thus interest payments (coming out of taxes). Wouldn't the easier option be not increasing debt but paying banks say 4% to keep deposits at CBK instead of 10% on a 10 year bond. Does that make sense? Seems cheaper? “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/10/2008 Posts: 301 Location: Abu Dhabi
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I may have misunderstood, but basically CRR is part of the monetary tools that CBK uses to control money supply in the medium term. Other tools it uses is repo and reverse repo for the short term, and CD's (which are deposits by banks that earn interest - not sure whether they still exist). On fiscal side, Treasury borrows from the public through CBK via T-bills and bonds, to cover for their capital and recurrent expenditure, and repaid through taxes.
Paying all deposits to banks as opposed to taking bonds would be detrimental to the economy, as GoK would be competing with the prvt sector for funds. Secondly, 4% would imply short term facility, if we're to go by the yield curve, otherwise banks will still ask for the 10% to keep 10 yr deposits, considering GoK needs long term borrowings to manage cashflow, which is usually rolled over on maturity.
All in all, there is a very thin, and hazy line between CBK & GoK (Treasury), as CBK hasnt been given full independence as in other countries.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
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@tonicasert. I'm learning a lot from you...thanks. I hope I'm also not confusing myself. So changing the CRR is permanent. Repos and term auction facility are temporary. They both result in cash injections to commercial banks. I think the term auction facility (CD) was last used in mid-2008 to lengthen the maturity period. If we look at the issue of paying banks interest on their deposits at CBK, it would not be a short term facility, it would be a periodic permanent injection (just like CRR, immediate). The idea would be not to meddle with interest rates but give banks revenue. Banks would record this income as interest income. However, a budget would be set by Parliament to agree how much free money is injected as income at anyone time. So the interest paid has a budget & CBK is permanently raising the money supply; that money supply rise will be less than if a commercial bank was allowed to lend reserves willy-nilly. I wonder if that makes sense? Read more: http://www.reuters.com/a...e/idUSN0716842120080508
On the fiscal side, Treasury borrows from public to fund budget deficits; but couldn't it also use it to reduce bank liquidity-Treasury issues a bond, cash goes from banks to CBK. In order for banks to have that cash back, Treasury needs to spend into back into their accounts as a deposit or CBK injects temporary cash through repos. Sometimes the CBK bulletin says "the net liquidity position was offset by government spending". What was offset? But if Treasury accumulates cash, at CBK, then liquidity cannot be offset. They must continue using reverse repos. Bank lend excess cash reserves which is what is held up at CBK right? So Treasury is crowding out the private sector by mopping up excess reserves through an auction, then holding onto those same reserves. The only way this can be sustained is if CBK keeps periodically injecting temporary money, which are rolled over and over, see injections in post 25. But you're right-a very thin line between CBK/GOK and I don't think any Central Bank can ever be given full independance, unless its private, like the US Fed. “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
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@tonicasert. Check out this interesting article in the Business Daily today. Excerpt. Treasury has accumulated billions of shillings in the past few weeks, causing jitters among banks and forcing the Central Bank to intervene frequently with injection of liquidity into financial markets.Treasury’s lack of capacity to spend cash comes at a time when the CBK is keen to keep inflation in check and interest rates low but analysts say the delicate balancing act may not be sustainable.Read more: http://www.businessdaily.../-/oc8wj9z/-/index.html
Taleb: Piling On More Debt Won't End Global Crisis. Read more: http://www.moneynews.com...ebt/2010/05/10/id/358549“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/10/2008 Posts: 301 Location: Abu Dhabi
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Welll CRR is not really permanent, but its hardly changed and it may take some couple of years to change, depending on the intended effect a change is meant to have.
To clarify some stuff here - CBK serves 2 roles, one is to manage money supply, inflation and GDP growth, and secondly as a banker of GoK. On the other hand, banks run commercially independent to make their own decision on how to make money, essentially through taking deposits and lending.
In the interbank overnight money market, there are periods when theres is a crunch, and others when there's flush cash, and these runs for a few days/weeks. For instance if theres is a crunch, and banks are lending to each other at say 8%, CBK will intervene with reverse repo, where they will offer money at 6% to whoever is looking to borrow (secured with some bonds), and so the flush banks are forced to lower their lending rates. Vise versa happens with repo.
On the other hand, GoK needs money to pay civils service, pay for roads, etc, and unless the taxes (plus the expected oil revenues :)) exceed these expenses, the govt will always be short (deficit), hence borrowing through bonds. Now here is the situation where banks can invest their excess funds, by lending to the govt (T-Bonds) and earning the interest you are talking of.
Parliament approves govt spending, and cash is distributed to the various ministries to spend, and as you know, govt spending lifts the economy (paid salaries, contracts assigned, and the ripple effect). The prob we're seeing now is that the ministries for some reason are no spending the money (could be some project delays, maybe a way to siphon, I dont know), and remember CBK being their banker, the reslt is excess funds in CBK vaults which are meant to be spent. In the past, we find alot of ministries spending in the last month before budget, and there is usually a smal blip of inflation around that time. Suppose this cash was with banks, they would have seeked ways to maximise profits by lending more.
All in all, I still dont think CBK should be actively involved in trying to increase the interest revenues of banks, unless the banks are willing to lend to the govt, in which case the funds will go through the CBK. Whether the funds are used or not, is a different case altogether.
My 2 cents though....
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
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wow, great stuff. CRR is not really permanent? Yes..humm I used a poor choice of words, I guess what I meant is that the injection is not a loan (not contracted to be repaid). If you raised the CRR back to 5.0% from the current 4.5% then the 0.5% would immediately be required to be kept as a mandatory reserve, the move would ideally be long term. The reason is more likely a long term is that it's supposed to trickle down through the system (to achieve the desired effect). But we can see clearly why lowering CRR is easier than raising it. Why does the interbank lending mart exist? Commercial Banks take and create deposits. They take deposits from depositors and create deposits when they make loans. The language sounds wrong, but it's the case and I believe it's the fundamental reason behind the interbank loan market. The core functions of any bank (stated above) therefore involve the movement of deposits all over the system resulting in liquid banks here and illiquid banks elsewhere. So when there's a crunch, rates go up but when there's a flush they go down. When govt has a public auction (Bond/Bill) they cause liquidity problems becoz cash leaves banks heading to CBK vaults. This has an impact on interbank rates by raising them. However, CBK can also influence these rates, when there's a crunch they buy bonds (reverse repo), when there's a flush the sell bonds (repo). Treasury can also influence these rates, when there's a crunch they increase govt spending, during a flush they freeze spending. Therefore it is clear what is causing the need for injections (see post 25). The questions on the table are (1) why keep issuing bonds if there’s an accumulation of govt funds at CBK? If govt has over Ksh75 billion (post 22) at CBK why not stop issuing bonds until that figures drops to say Ksh20 billion (2) if ministries are incapable of spending money efficiently then why have such huge expenditure planned, thus huge deficit financing? Or only issue debt near June when ministries are expected to spend it. (3) If the goal is to lower interbank rates, wouldn’t it make sense to flood the banks with cash (i.e., increase govt spending)? All CBK is doing is increasing the domestic debt (way over budget) and crowding out the private sector. Look at the Q1 results from Equity, KCB to NIC Bank, to COOP today (except CFC & DTBK), lending to govt was higher than ordinary lending in each case. So how can govt purport to want to promote consumer lending when CBK is supporting banks during auctions, while creating competition between borrowers and them. This whole debacle leads me to think that the reason behind not spending govt cash is because is actually a tool to tame the inflation banks would create through lending. “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
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Domestic interest payments on Kenya's domestic debt between 2000 and 2010 were as follows: 2000: 22 billion 2001: 23 billion 2002: 24 billion 2003: 27 billion 2004: 23 billion 2005: 23 billion 2006: 31 billion 2007: 36 billion 2008: 42 billion 2009: 46 billion April 2010: 49 billion According to a reliable source the govt is allowed to stretch the debt service level to 30% of revenues. So the govt is allowed to spend Ksh30 of every Ksh100 of taxes to payback loans for expenditure they may or may not spend. The governor doesn't believe that the debt is unsustainable as the debt service level as a percentage of revenues is only 25%. It has taken 17 years for foreign debt to grow from 200 billion to 550 billion, it's taken 10 years for domestic debt to do the same. Since 2005 domestic interest payments have dominated our debt service payments (i.e., contribute more than foreign principal and interest combined). But curiously it was July 2009 when gross domestic debt overtook external debt. This may just be a possible reason why the CBK must try to keep domestic interest rates low. “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
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A whopping Sh30 billion earmarked for development in the current financial year and released to ministries remains idle in bank accounts, hampering delivery of critical services to wananchi. The riddle of unspent billions, coming hardly a month before the next budget, has provided the latest indications of how ministries have been unable to roll out projects which were listed in this year’s budget. “Whenever concern is raised, people often think that it is Treasury that has refused to release the money. But the fact is that some ministries sit on billions of shillings that Treasury has already approved electronically for expenditure,” the PS said on Tuesday. Officers to blame On Tuesday, Mr Kinyua said that the Treasury, which is responsible for releasing the money to the ministries, was concerned about the trend of cash remaining untouched in Central Bank of Kenya accounts. Mr Kinyua said that permanent secretaries and accounting officers, charged with executing projects, were the culprits. Read more: http://www.nation.co.ke/...32/-/hf6pvl/-/index.html“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/9/2008 Posts: 537
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yet the geniuses at MOF think we need to issue a 40bn eurobond!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/7/2010 Posts: 1,279 Location: nbi
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UK maths just don't add up-dude needs to go easy on muratina. How many t-bills have we had to finance gaps in the Budget? I can quickly recall two of them that alone add to Ksh30bn. So how come we then end up with this massive underspend? Doesn't the right hand know what the freaking left hand is doing? The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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