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KCB results not so impressive:
Scubidu
#61 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 12:31:59 PM
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Location: Nairobi
KCB pre-tax profits in 2008 (2007) from annual report

Kenya 5.6bn (4.2bn)
Tanzania 32mn (0mn)
Southern Sudan 530 mn (99mn)
Uganda -188mn (-49mn)
Rwanda -25 mn

@kizee. Perhaps you shud do a comparison with other Kenyan banks who have operations in East Africa...are they making money? Such as Equity? Becoz it cud simply be a close to a poor economic cycle affecting all banks with regional operations; i.e., not representative of the overall strategy.

@wa_ithika. The 15 bn is for capital ratios (legal purposes) set by basel (BIS)...bank lending is limited by either capital or reserves. When BBK borrowed loan capital from Barclays Plc its was to enhance capital base not for lending, it's in the annual report. They will not lend the money, but will give CBK the confidence more confidence.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
kizee
#62 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 12:37:11 PM
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Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
so how have u pointed out my untruths? it was one untruth which i corrected with a solid fact...u havent given any figure to dispute anything i have said and i had to correct myself...please list wat lies you think i am peddling...i will wait..
kizee
#63 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 12:39:50 PM
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Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
@scubidu

check out dtks results...dtk are a regional bank...i doubt they hav a single subsidiary in the red...kcb cannot justify an 8 yr loosing streak(read kcbtz) as the result of a poor business cycle
Scubidu
#64 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 12:48:59 PM
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Location: Nairobi
@kizee. Aahh yes you're quite right...on dtk and some other stuff...I don't know what business model they use, but I guess KCB's Tz sub needs some serious re-engineering, so it looks like we all owe you a drink (at least I do)...but dude it's furahi-day, so I aint gonna argue it further. Peace.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
VituVingiSana
#65 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 12:50:30 PM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
kizee wrote:
so how have u pointed out my untruths? it was one untruth which i corrected with a solid fact...u havent given any figure to dispute anything i have said and i had to correct myself...please list wat lies you think i am peddling...i will wait..

LOL... how about mis-statements?

I was talking of the Sudan bit... in your original posting u said the blue-eyed boy Sudan also made a loss in 2009 like the other subsidiaries... I just asked for a verification/source.

BTW, I did refer you to Annual Report for 2008 for KCB Tz. I knew about it or how could I have guided you to it?

I never claimed any of the other stuff was untrue... did I?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#66 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 12:55:01 PM
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Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
@scubidu - DTB is focused.

They are very good at what they do & sorta entrepreneurial...

I had to make a payment in Uganda for a deal. I paid in the cash (in KES & less than $10,000) into DTB (Westgate) at 5pm (Day 1), flew into Entebbe/Kampala early AM (Day 2) & the cash was available to me on Day 3 in KES or UGShs less wire fee (KES 2,400) & a forex spread for the conversion into UGShs.

All I had to do was show my passport (same ID as presented in Kenya) as proof.

Can u imagine the stress with KCB or BBK?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kizee
#67 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 12:56:04 PM
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Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
i was off by 14mio on the kcb tz figure..kcbtz has made profit once in its entire history...a stagerring 32mio...sudan made -99 in 07 500 in 08 and 85 odd in 09...sudan was the blue eyed boy of all the subs..hey they even paid a dividend to grp in 09 how about that?...

if u guys feel kcb will do well going forward..more power to you...ive just sold my last 300 shares in kcb...if i cud short it i wud
VituVingiSana
#68 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 1:08:33 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
kizee wrote:
i was off by 14mio on the kcb tz figure..kcbtz has made profit once in its entire history...a stagerring 32mio...sudan made -99 in 07 500 in 08 and 85 odd in 09...sudan was the blue eyed boy of all the subs..hey they even paid a dividend to grp in 09 how about that?...

It is Furahiday... Take a chill pill... At some point I was enjoying needling you... but I dont want to spoil your weekend... we have our politicians to do it for us!

BTW, you are right, KCB TZ has only made a profit ONCE in 8 years, even that might be suspect, one-time or they got lucky!

Sudan is interesting... the problem/fear I have is the relationship between S.Sudan & N.Sudan can turn nasty. Fast.

The good news (as I understand it) is that most of KCB's cash assets are in US$. So the risk of sustantial loss is negligible. They can airlift the cash to Kenya or simply 'wire' the electronic amounts to Kenya/USA as well.

Unless KCB uses Good4Shyte...

I will pray on Sunday... just not for the same things as baba jimmy & baba fidel!!!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kizee
#69 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 1:19:48 PM
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Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
Laughing out loudly ...u cant wire anyting into or out of sudan...theyve been blacklisted...if anything cuts kcb will have major issues repatriating chumz unless maybe if kcb used a ccy swap to invest in sudan WHICH I AM WILLING TO BET MY LEFT *** THEY WUDNT HAVE A CLUE HOW TO..hey..please note that southern sudan have 2 weeks of resrves so getting cash out can be tricky

anyway im no longer competant to comment on matters kcb..i sold my last holding in kcb today....Laughing out loudly
VituVingiSana
#70 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 1:25:21 PM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
kizee wrote:
...u cant wire anyting into or out of sudan...theyve been blacklisted...if anything cuts kcb will have major issues repatriating chumz unless maybe if kcb used a ccy swap to invest in sudan WHICH I AM WILLING TO BET MY LEFT NUT THEY WUDNT HAVE A CLUE HOW TO..hey..please note that southern sudan have 2 weeks of resrves so getting cash out can be tricky

Huh? Blacklisted? By whom?
That is crazy... so how do S.Sudan banks handle funds? All of it is flown in & out?

I am not a banker but is there a way to send electronic US$ funds without going thru New York?

In this day & age 'electronic' funds makes sense! Wow... I had no idea... never been to S.Sudan (or north)...

BTW, what do you mean when you say 2 weeks of reserves?
[When I say cash... I mean US$ held by KCBsudan not waiting for sudanese pound to be converted to US$...]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Wa_ithaka
#71 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 3:15:31 PM
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Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Scubidu-its Friday so I don't have the energy to argue fruitlessly. Suffice to say thet KCB won't be raising Ksh15bn just to prop up its capital. Thet would be ridiculous even for KCB.

Btw, many banks in Kenya (especially the parastatal-types like KCB and NBK), are still convinced that growing huge is the key success criteria.
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
Scubidu
#72 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 4:07:43 PM
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Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@wa_ithaka. The banking system we operate under allows KCB to write a 8bn long term loan without KCB even receiving any deposits…the CBK needs to see that two things are available, reserves (which they can lend through omo) and capital (which is where the 15bn comes in). These are the two things that constrain lending.

This is a concept I came to learn and vvs alluded to it in his post, post 53. He advises some concepts to read over. In addition I suggest u visit the following website http://www.moneyasdebt.net/ and go to reference links (on the non-flash page). Download a document called Modern Money Mechanics (it’s on the left)…it’s an interesting document about our banking system (read the first ten pages). Nice weekend dude, ive gotta Pili waiting for me and it's about time I left work!
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
kizee
#73 Posted : Saturday, February 27, 2010 12:14:05 AM
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Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
VituVingiSana wrote:
kizee wrote:
...u cant wire anyting into or out of sudan...theyve been blacklisted...if anything cuts kcb will have major issues repatriating chumz unless maybe if kcb used a ccy swap to invest in sudan WHICH I AM WILLING TO BET MY LEFT NUT THEY WUDNT HAVE A CLUE HOW TO..hey..please note that southern sudan have 2 weeks of resrves so getting cash out can be tricky

Huh? Blacklisted? By whom?
That is crazy... so how do S.Sudan banks handle funds? All of it is flown in & out?

I am not a banker but is there a way to send electronic US$ funds without going thru New York?

In this day & age 'electronic' funds makes sense! Wow... I had no idea... never been to S.Sudan (or north)...

BTW, what do you mean when you say 2 weeks of reserves?
[When I say cash... I mean US$ held by KCBsudan not waiting for sudanese pound to be converted to US$...]

..dude funds are transferred using SWIFT and some countries esp islamic countries deemed to be supportin terrorist activity are on a list of banned countries it still is posible to tffer money to these ctrys but one risks being flagged as having dealings with them...the south sudanese CB has 2 weeks of reserves...where else wud kcb get usd from in sudan apart from the CB if they needed it bak in a hurry..pls note theres no FX market of note at least none liquid enuff to enable kcb to buy back their capital and repatriate.....plus the capital wud hav been converted from kes to usd and paid to sudan...this are the funds i am sayin are difficult to repatriate...fcy cash balances held by sudan arent the issue really...in any case watever capital kcb invested was converted into buidlings assets etc...how do u repatriate that???
Scubidu
#74 Posted : Sunday, February 28, 2010 6:30:51 PM
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Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Wa_ithaka. The two capital ratios core capital/deposit liabilities and core capital/risk weighted assets may help explain some statements I made above. With a 15bn injection of capital, KCB’s deposit liabilities (DL) and risk weighted assets (RWA) can grow meaning KCB can now loan more by leveraging on that capital base. If u take KCB’s current RWA and DL, for a 1b injection of long term capital, KCB can write 9b in long term loans (RWA rises), which will then lower the ratios back to 2009 levels-12.8%/14.8% (u can do this experiment practically right now with a calc). You can make the same observation with a reduction in the CRR, lowering it does raise funds, yes, but also raises leverage.

These capital ratios were put there by the Central Banks globally to limit growth in RWA and DL; much like the reserve ratios they limit loan growth becoz of the implications to money supply. Central Banks emphasize on growing capital periodically (e.g., Lloyds TSB raising capital), becoz that’s out of their control. Markets were banks have low capital see their stock markets decline first (read: rights issues)-is why Kimunya put emphasis on raising capital by 2012. Finally a word on accounting…u need to get hold of a banker, ask him/her the changes (debit & credit) in the balance sheet items (i.e., loans, cash, DL, etc…) when a bank writes a loan and when a loan is written off..further clues to above issues.

I think growing a strong/huge balance sheet is key to attracting business internationally, particularly if you’re a regional bank. If I’m an oil importer, like Kenol, I’m more likely to bank with KCB becoz they’re trusted by the corresponding bank abroad. You geta free bailout in the US, CBN in Nigeria consolidated banks for strengthen, 4 banks control SA market, big banks are included in syndications, big banks have big capital thus capacity to lend to big projects, the recent Kenyan M&As (CFC+stanbic) to create financial supermarkets... Big is best in banking.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Wa_ithaka
#75 Posted : Monday, March 01, 2010 8:10:03 AM
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Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Scubidu- Good morning, hope your weekend was restful and not spent on googling capital, banks et al.
Thanks for taking the time to do the two posts.
Assuming they are in reposnse to my post that KCB can't be raising Ksh15bn just for propping up its capital. 1st thing, please note that whether the Ksh15bn is capital or funding depends on how its raised. If KCB's raises the whole Ksh15bn via bond issues, then this is funding and not capital. It raises the whole Ksh15bn via rights issue, then this constitutes capital raising. Comprende?
Its clear that KCB does need to increase its capital not so as to increase its lending but to avoid breaching its capital ratios. So I expect some of that Ksh15bn will be in form rights issue. As a KCB shareholder, I'd be itching for the AGM to confirm whether Martin's brain is functioning right. Yani, you need more capital, but you've just paid out Ksh2.2bn in dividend?
Scubidu, a final pt. Have you ever heard of the too big to fail problem? You will if God forbid, we go back to the 90s again when the GoK had to bail out KCB, NBK and others...
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
Scubidu
#76 Posted : Monday, March 01, 2010 11:06:32 AM
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Location: Nairobi
Wa_ithaka. You're being kind today, pliz don't tell me I'm slow Pray . You remember Barclays issued a medium term note in 2008 aka a corporate bond. In their annual report they wrote "medium term notes are...for the development of the banks business and to strengthen its capital base". Didn't have to google that.

In the MD's statement he mentioned "from the issue, we were able to grow funding to support long-term lending to our customers...". So yes a bond issue raises funds, but as I explained above the banks count more on leverage of those same funds (funds will be spent on other things, not only on lending).

The fact that the capital is issued as a bond is irrelevant. At this point you may want to google the definition for supplementary capital then download Barclays 3rd qtr results for 2008. That should explain your confusion concerning capital raising (core capital + supplementary capital = Total capital).

Paying the dividend was necessary or how else would investors be enticed into buying future rights...Martin's head is functioning right, he's grown the loan book and pre-tax profits...Central Banks will help always help those big banks that are "to-big-to fail". Case in point CBK pumping in reserves and US Fed paying interest on reserves (plus bailouts).
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
VituVingiSana
#77 Posted : Monday, March 01, 2010 11:22:12 AM
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Posts: 18,118
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@scubidu - You have done your homework well... The longer-term bonds with non-callable (by bondholders) features are used to boost supplementary capital. The amount is capped (I believe 50%) of the 'permanent' capital.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Scubidu
#78 Posted : Monday, March 01, 2010 11:35:01 AM
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Location: Nairobi
@VVS. you're quite right, I believe it is 50% of subordinate debt (I think). I commend wa_ithaka for actually bringing this debate up, it's an interesting topic. I have found that the tricky thing about banking is the accounting treatments, which is why we should look thoroughly at all the items in the balance sheet and explain why they change.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
VituVingiSana
#79 Posted : Monday, March 01, 2010 11:53:46 AM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
@Scubidu - It is s regulatory issue not accounting matter... Probably to keep banks from over-leveraging the 'Capital' as well...
I think there is a minimum time frame needed to keep debt as 'capital' i.e. there are conditions/restrictions on what debt can be used in the calculation of supplementary capital...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Wa_ithaka
#80 Posted : Monday, March 01, 2010 11:57:14 AM
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Scubidu- for the sake of future debates, I'll yiedl on the whether a corporate bond can be termed as capital.
However, on the dividend and the too-big to fail, I recommend another couple hits on google. The banks that you've mentioned (i.e. UK/US) mostly differed dividends in exchange for capital raising measures and govt assistance where this was made. On the too-big-to fail, please google that jointly with moral hazard. The reason that you don't want banks to get too big to fail is that if KCB was to fail tomorrow, note that it has a balance sheet of Ksh191bn which is 25% of the last budget.
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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