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NSE SHARES PERFORMANCE: THREE YEAR FORECAST WITH 2012 IN MIND
VituVingiSana
#61 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 6:56:24 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,218
Location: Nairobi
@guru Why sell 600 @ 160 if you are so confident?

I might need cash to exercise Rights... so might sell Rights instead... coz I wud lose if I let the Rights lapse without exercising them...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cicero
#62 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 7:12:28 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/7/2009
Posts: 111
Looks like stocks today are behaving in a way i would not expect (though i keep seeing it now and then)... Why is KCB going up yet they announced that they are laying off workers? Should that not b interpreted by the NSE as bad sign? or does the NSE interpret it as a good management decision which increases the prospects of huge profits in the future (wage bill conversion to profit).

I am still also waiting for Safcom to head to 5 bob to buy a few ... Lakini when?d'oh!
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
VituVingiSana
#63 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 7:22:50 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,218
Location: Nairobi
@cicero - KCB is laying of workers it does NOT need coz of better/efficient systems.

If you can check your balance by e-mail or sms, you do not need a clerk to check it for you... Now multiply that by 1,000,000 customers & you can fire 1,000 clerks...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#64 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 8:33:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
politics aside its retail investors have waken up...pushing safcom...good to see...kcb with its regional expansion will be big in 2-3 years time.
VituVingiSana
#65 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 8:57:12 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,218
Location: Nairobi
@the deal: If the fools in government dont screw up the country... Could Kenya become another somalia?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Githinji
#66 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 9:11:12 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/5/2010
Posts: 7
Location: nairobi
Cud some1 please comment on Cooperative Bank share??
the deal
#67 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 9:27:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@vvs i think the u.s. wants kenya to work so that they can use it as a lauching pad for fighting terrorism i.e against al shabab...but the economy will definitely head south....i was thinking of adding more safcom now i have to wait and see how this political games play out...
VituVingiSana
#68 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 9:30:31 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,218
Location: Nairobi
@the deal: Even the USA can't prevent a total collapse... and al-shabaab is not a huge threat to USA...

If Kenya flunks, there is always a presence in Uganda & bases/port in Tanzania...

Don't forget UK & USA also have Diego Garcia (islands) for use...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mkonomtupu
#69 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 9:47:23 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
It's good to see KCB putting the cash from the rights issue into some good IT systems. Now cut back on the parastatal staff from the days. KCB with its regional outlook looks like a good hedge against the political risks in Kenya.
KPLC also looks like a good defensive stock. Power demand in Kenya in 2013 is projected to leap to 2300 MW so regardless of the political noise it will make healthy returns.
VituVingiSana
#70 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 10:47:34 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,218
Location: Nairobi
Most of KCB business is in Kenya. Even the regional business is dependent on a stable Kenya coz many of KCB's clients in other countries are importers...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#71 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 11:06:29 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
@guru Why sell 600 @ 160 if you are so confident?

I might need cash to exercise Rights... so might sell Rights instead... coz I wud lose if I let the Rights lapse without exercising them...


@VVS theres only one reason i'm selling.. i'm expecting volatility on this counter and i've never participated in a rights issue before so i'm also taking a bit of risk off the table...

could you please explain to me exactly how exactly does one sell ones rights in a rights issue???
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mkonomtupu
#72 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 11:16:02 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
True that. Just thinking of the regional economies, they will continue to post stronger growth figures than kenya as we struggle with our politics and our indecisive leadership. I don't think Kenya is headed to the dogs but it will have sluggish growth over the next three years.
BBK starts the results announcements on Thursday, KCB maybe next week.
VituVingiSana
#73 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 11:25:50 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,218
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@guru Why sell 600 @ 160 if you are so confident?

I might need cash to exercise Rights... so might sell Rights instead... coz I wud lose if I let the Rights lapse without exercising them...


@VVS theres only one reason i'm selling.. i'm expecting volatility on this counter and i've never participated in a rights issue before so i'm also taking a bit of risk off the table...

could you please explain to me exactly how exactly does one sell ones rights in a rights issue???


It will all be explained in the documents... but if the market price is higher than the exercise/rights price... u can sell your rights for a premium... typically the difference...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
chaliwong
#74 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 6:28:44 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/10/2010
Posts: 73
Location: kenya
On KCB:-
Do you retrench when you are expanding or when shrinking?

For the banks to expand as they are doing, they require new technologies which means they require technology compliant staff which I dont think KCB has in the old bi-spectacled mamas they still have in their banking halls as customer facing staff.

Over the years in the bank this old guards earn hefty packages yet they are not trainable or flexible for training, which the bank can get in a fresh graduate who is efficient and trainable and will be paid a starting salary that is almost quarter of what this guys earn.

Actually, technology has created more jobs in banking than it has reduced them.
For technology to pay off they require young blood(which is affodable).
guru267
#75 Posted : Tuesday, February 16, 2010 5:54:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
DAMN!! have wazurians seen KCB's profit target for 2010????
there targeting 9billion PBT which is a 55% increase from last year... i would really like to see them meet this target cos the share price will EXPLODE!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Wa_ithaka
#76 Posted : Tuesday, February 16, 2010 6:08:51 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
What is KCB basing its forecast on? KCB has never as far as I can remember had a such year on year growth...
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
guru267
#77 Posted : Tuesday, February 16, 2010 6:54:07 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@Wai_thaka.. i think KCB projected this growth becuase most of its expenditure last year and 2008 has been investment expenditure and massive expansion and this expenditure is not permanent plus the investments will start to pay off greatly....

profit projections done especially by the company tend to be very modest and under estimated to allow outperfomance which means it has a very high chance of even more than 9billion.. ceteris paribus
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
cnn
#78 Posted : Tuesday, February 16, 2010 6:55:22 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,621
@guru,i saw that and was left wondering how they will do it this year.But last year Martin had said they aim at becoming the most profitable bank in Kenya.First quarter report will give us an indicator.
guru267
#79 Posted : Tuesday, February 16, 2010 7:07:29 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@cnn they do have to be the most profitable... otherwise what would be the use of having more than $1billion in assets??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
guru267
#80 Posted : Tuesday, February 16, 2010 11:38:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@wazurians i so cant believe my eyes... i thought the sugar boat had left ages ago but looks like all the profit taking is bringing it back to me..
i have a huge order at below 10 bob and my broker says it'll go thru tomoro :d/
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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