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mumias sugar results-560% growth half year-unaudited
Much Know
#61 Posted : Wednesday, February 03, 2010 8:10:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,548
If you make analysis and predictions without looking at the global markets, you will miss out (short term) but if you are a long term fundamentalist, it does not really matter. Mumias will be on the up and up so will Kenre, When? after western markets rally to the end of this week and perhaps another two. These markets were bearish for a spike of a while and drove down NSE
A New Kenya
Much Know
#62 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 1:04:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,548
Confimed buy at 10/-, set for the rally tomorrow, just on time!
A New Kenya
guru267
#63 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 1:32:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@much know.. what rally are you talking about tomorrow? judging from this weeks perfomance of msc, the profit rise of 560% had already been factored into the price... there will most likely be no rally until full year announcement

but then again i do expect one in kenya re...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#64 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 10:32:17 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
Mumias looks cheap at current prices. Also has lots of liquidity BUT I am waiting for a drop in the price (as is inevitable) as sellers show up!

Like many other firms (e.g. Safaricom) the larger players are buying out the smaller players... and this is a good thing for the stock price...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cicero
#65 Posted : Friday, February 05, 2010 2:41:40 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/7/2009
Posts: 111
Yes, i agree with you @VVS, Mumias certainly looks cheap. With an EPS of ~64 cents already in the bag, i think an end of year EPS of KES2 or more is what we should all expect as the end of year results are released. Everything held constant, this share may at the end of the day favour those who will hold and wait for the almost certain positive announcement which will put it's value above KES20 end of this year where it belongs. Not so?
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
VituVingiSana
#66 Posted : Friday, February 05, 2010 3:35:36 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
Cicero wrote:
With an EPS of ~64 cents already in the bag, i think an end of year EPS of KES2. Everything held constant, will put it's value above KES20 end of this year where it belongs. Not so?

LOL... I disagree!!!

On EPS I think it will be between 1.50 - 2.00 and anything higher will be a huge surprise to me.

I discount any 'tax' benefits since these are generally one-offs though they help in keeping the cash in-house.

Mumias at 10x PE is a little high since the risks with farmers, COMESA, etc remain high.

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#67 Posted : Friday, February 05, 2010 5:17:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
I agree with @VVS.. i tried all metrics to and try and justify a price of 20 and above for msc by year end but i just hit a brick wall... @VVS maybe there's something we're missing!!! because if i missed this boat because i missed something i'll beat myself to death...any extra info?????
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#68 Posted : Friday, February 05, 2010 5:31:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
@guru - We have not missed anything on Mumias... I doubt it will got to 20/- in 2010... I am waiting for a sub-10 price...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Njung'e
#69 Posted : Friday, February 05, 2010 8:56:45 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
So the second half run might not be as rosy afterall.......Does someone remember Chaliwong saying Msc has so much cane??Liar ...Hell!!...Who will hold down this dude down for me while i bite his bottoms!!!smile .Truth....and this is sad so much so that,i wish Evans doesn't let it go this way......for the next couple of months,Msc will be operating for six days in a week due to cane shortage!!(VRS)....Grrrrrrrr!!!Sad
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
ecstacy
#70 Posted : Friday, February 05, 2010 10:38:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
I've gotten into MSC like a problem...not leaving anytime soon.
chaliwong
#71 Posted : Friday, February 05, 2010 4:48:59 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/10/2010
Posts: 73
Location: kenya
@Njunge,
Haiya!
-Kwani, when you want to acquire something from your rival do you tell him you have enough of it??

Tunataka hii miwa ya Nzoia hata kama ni kutumia kiswashili, na if we get it......700%.
VituVingiSana
#72 Posted : Friday, February 05, 2010 5:03:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
@Njunge @chaliwong - Did I miss a news segment?

When did Kidero say there is not enuff cane for operations 7 days/week?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
ecstacy
#73 Posted : Monday, February 08, 2010 11:05:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
I wonder what will be share price come 30th June 2010...
guru267
#74 Posted : Monday, February 08, 2010 12:03:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
i remember the day these results came out everyone was going insane quoting prices for msc for the weeks end(like 20, 16, 15....) and yet a week later here we are... it hasnt even touched 11bob today... Sad

i just hope no speculators have been burnt...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
ecstacy
#75 Posted : Monday, February 08, 2010 12:52:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
burnt is only if they sold. this share is going to keep rising as we head into the next 5 months...
guru267
#76 Posted : Monday, February 08, 2010 1:10:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@ecstacy. yeah this counter does have some mileage because i did my valuations and valued it at around 16 and so have many others like ABC capital,
dont get me wrong.... when i talk about speculators i mean those who usually take out high interest monthly loans to make a quick buck on counters on the nse (i know a couple of people who do)...

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
guru267
#77 Posted : Monday, February 08, 2010 1:12:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@ecstacy. yeah this counter does have some mileage because i did my valuations and valued it at around 16 and so have many others like ABC capital,
dont get me wrong.... when i talk about speculators i mean those who usually take out high interest monthly loans from shrks to make a quick buck on counters on the nse (i know a couple of people who do)...

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Scubidu
#78 Posted : Monday, February 08, 2010 1:49:02 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@guru267. What was ABC Capital's valuation estimate. Did they issue a report?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
guru267
#79 Posted : Monday, February 08, 2010 2:26:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@scubidu... ABC's valuation estimate was 16 bob for msc basing on technical and fundamental analysis... but i'm not sure if they did issue a report because i got my information from CNBC...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
ecstacy
#80 Posted : Tuesday, February 09, 2010 11:05:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
Read the article 'Sugar demand to hold up despite price surge' referring to international sugar prices in today's Daily Nation Smart Business magazine page 16. MSC future looking bright.
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