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Taking positions for 2010
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sheep
#61 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2010 10:46:52 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
How does one value KQ?The assets could be some old junk planes and hangers,It has negative p/e and undisclosed hedges.Airlines are so tricky even Buffet keeps out of them.I am taking a fully speculative position,with stop losses in place.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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kishindo
#62 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2010 12:48:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/11/2008
Posts: 121
whether KQ reaches 60 or 80 i can only be thankful....got in @17.50 in march 2009 and off at 50...i'm off for holidays!
Less is more....for Architects only!!
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Pretty
#63 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2010 1:17:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/8/2009
Posts: 263
Location: Gigiri, Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
@thedeal... Let me finish buying one of my current picks then I will tell you which one...

It is rarely traded but sells at a huge discount to any metric you can slap on it...

I am a Warren Buffett fan... & this honey could excite Graham as well...


smile Would you by any chance be referring to BOC?

smile I have been acquiring them gradually and will stop doing so in April when major announcements are due. Read my lips but don't come too near.
>>>>>>
A thing of beauty is a joy for ever:
Its loveliness increases;
It will never pass into nothingness;
But still will keep a bower quiet for us,
and a sleep full of sweet dreams,
and health, and quiet breathing. - Keats

>>>>>>>In life,there are three classes of people,
1. Those who make things happen,
2. Those who watch things happen
3. And those who ask what happened.

Where do you fall?
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Wa_ithaka
#64 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2010 2:20:52 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
My Equity target for 2010 was Ksh21.00, but I think it'll surpass that now...
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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mukiha
#65 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2010 2:36:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
sheep wrote:
How does one value KQ?The assets could be some old junk planes and hangers,It has negative p/e and undisclosed hedges.Airlines are so tricky even Buffet keeps out of them.I am taking a fully speculative position,with stop losses in place.


@sheep; KQ has one of the youngest fleets in the sky! Most of their planes are under 10 years old. Indeed this is one of KQ's winning points in the market. So, no "old junk planes" there.
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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VituVingiSana
#66 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2010 7:01:43 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
sheep wrote:
How does one value KQ?
The assets could be some old junk planes and hangers, It has negative p/e and undisclosed hedges. Airlines are so tricky even Buffet keeps out of them.I am taking a fully speculative position,with stop losses in place.


@sheep -

I was trying to find a polite way to say this but I cant...

Bullshit (except the Warren Buffett bit but most of his airlines information/analysis is based on US airlines & to some extent the hedges)

- Very successful airlines include Virgin Atlantic, RyanAir & Southwest

The stop-loss order system does not work very well in Kenya...

Why would you even bother speculating in this 'How does one value KQ'?

A little research shows KQ has one of the world's youngest fleets... & mostly Boeings.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#67 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2010 1:20:08 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
Recap for 19 Jan 2010:

KQ @54 is way above my 45/- target. I will still hold coz I think 2H will be very good & crude at $84 will be a relief on the hedges

Williamson @125 is still struggling. Well, I still have some time... waiting for the results in June 2010

KPLC at 147 is sort of a laggard when you consider my target is 200 (31 Dec 2011) but IMHO it will be OK after the 2009-10 results are out in Sep/Oct 2010.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#68 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2010 2:40:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
Recap for 20 Jan 2010:

KQ @55.50 (trades went as high as 58) is way above my 45/- target. I will hold until results are announced. 2010 should be good as the economies in Africa pick up. And World Cup 2010

Williamson (@125 last price) had no trades but I have time...

KPLC at 150/- showed some heft but my target is 200 (by 31 Dec 2011)
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#69 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2010 12:04:42 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
Kenya Airways traded 4.3mn shares today with 84% trades by foreign buyers. It closed at 57/- (hitting highs) This is a consolidation. I expect the price to start another run upwards from here...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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cnn
#70 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2010 12:23:41 PM
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Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,619
The trading towards the end showed sellers running out at that price level,and another 1% of KQ may have gone to foreigners in that single session.
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VituVingiSana
#71 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2010 12:29:17 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
@cnn - KQ is going to see a jump in price as local sellers bail. For KQ, 1% of the shares trading in a single day is way over the top!!!

Foreign buyers find it tougher to sell i.e. chances are they are in for the longer haul... Say they expect 15% so they are looking at 75/-

I am bullish on KQ but you know I have been... from the beginning...

Forget 45/-... I am going with 75/- by 31 Dec 2010
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#72 Posted : Friday, January 29, 2010 1:22:34 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
Update 29 Jan 2010 (last trading day of Jan 2010) on my picks

KQ: 50/- (Still higher than my 42-45 range but I await the passenger numbers for 3Q 2009-10). I do expect good FY 2009-10 results.

KPLC: 149/- (Vacillating in a very narrow range of 148-150). I stand by my target of 200/- (including divs + Rights premium) by 31 Dec 2011. This is a 2 year play.

Williamson: 130/-. Seems to have found a bottom. Tea prices dropping but remain ahead of last year. Year End 31 Mar 2010. Results by 30 June 2010. Target remains 200/-
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#73 Posted : Wednesday, February 03, 2010 2:20:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
87% net purchases of KQ by foreign buyers today.

In my gut I think there is something going on...

Is KQ up for grabs?
Does someone know about KQ's hedges?

In any case... I remain on bullish on KQ profitability.

I think the PAT (before hedges) will be Kes 5-7... & that includes the 600mn KQ had to pay as backpay for striking staff as well as losses from the strike...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#74 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 5:45:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@VVS are you overweight on KQ?? you seem to be extemely bullish on it, i think i might have got out too early... do you see an entry point at these levels?? if so why??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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VituVingiSana
#75 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 6:22:14 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
@guru - I bailed on some at lower prices... LOL...

I had initial sale target at 42/- then 45/- but it kept on rising in a straight line to 55/- then to 58/-...

I was not able to buy more since there was no 'dip' back to 45/-

I cant be sure about share prices but the profits IMHO will be very good...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Cicero
#76 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 6:25:51 AM
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Joined: 7/7/2009
Posts: 111
The half year earnings (PAT) of KQ were 860M (EPS 1.84) or thereabouts if i remember correctly. With there increased destinations and having taken care of their staff renumerations in the 1st half ... and considering the impact of +ve income from fuel adjustment ... i expect at least 3B profit after tax ... but if you add the goodwill and the fact that end year accounts are always more than x2 of half year statements then we may even get 4M which is more than sh.8 EPS ... which means the share will at the very least be worth sh.80 by May this year .... and if you go by Wazurians expectation that the PE must be above 12 ... then you are thinking of a share price of about kes.100 ... and that's what i expect in May-June ... No?smile
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
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VituVingiSana
#77 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 6:32:54 AM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
Cicero wrote:
The half year earnings (PAT) of KQ were 860M (EPS 1.84) or thereabouts if i remember correctly. With there increased destinations and having taken care of their staff renumerations in the 1st half ... and considering the impact of +ve income from fuel adjustment ... i expect at least 3B profit after tax ... but if you add the goodwill and the fact that end year accounts are always more than x2 of half year statements then we may even get 4M which is more than sh.8 EPS ... which means the share will at the very least be worth sh.80 by May this year .... and if you go by Wazurians expectation that the PE must be above 12 ... then you are thinking of a share price of about kes.100 ... and that's what i expect in May-June ... No?smile


12x PE might be high though definitely possible if 2010 looks good.

IMHO KQ shud have EPS of 5-7 BEFORE any fuel hedging gains. And since oil is even higher than on 30 Sep 2009, these should materialize for KQ.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Cicero
#78 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 6:43:29 AM
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Joined: 7/7/2009
Posts: 111
Thanks @VVS for "seconding" my thoughts. I am still new in this WAZUA but very interested to learn the ropes from the gurus. However, that's not to say i have no experince of my own. I have ridden the bull and the bear that is NSE and i know how both feel. I even rode Uchumi to oblivion though it now looks like what people thought was an uchumi "dead bear" was just hibernating and it's soon coming out of the snow ... may be a little thin but ready to go yet again ...
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
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guru267
#79 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 6:50:14 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@cicero could you help me out??? i have no info on uchumi share structure.. how many shares were issued and how many were floated before recevership??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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VituVingiSana
#80 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 6:52:45 AM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
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Location: Nairobi
http://www.centreforavia...10&utm_medium=email

Global air traffic expected to grow in 2010... based on bookings/sales made in Dec 2009...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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