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sheep
#61 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 11:49:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
Its behaviour seems classic for a stock with some mileage left...lets see how far this baby can stretch its legs.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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VituVingiSana
#62 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 11:55:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,117
Location: Nairobi
@kizee - Flight to safety only for short-term money.

This week has been net BUYING by foreigners (even today) so it is probably the wanjiku selling at the resistance level as well as the speculators who bought at lower prices taking profits.

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Kamaa
#63 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 11:58:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/6/2007
Posts: 1,177
Location: Nairobi - Kenya
@ mukiha

another rally?

i doubt it... demand will outstrip supply by far and you know why...

kenyans peculiar....

When you run so fast to get somewhere,you miss the fun of getting there... Life is not a race,so take it slowly....
When you hear what I say, you will not understand. When you see what I do, you will not comprehend
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kizee
#64 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 12:08:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
dunno man

seen heavy sellin of the kes today...lets all pray this dubai issue is sortd soon...already EM looking weak...
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VituVingiSana
#65 Posted : Monday, November 30, 2009 3:26:26 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,117
Location: Nairobi
@kizee - Kenya Shilling tries to track the US$ when going down but not when US$ is getting stronger!

KShs will depend on Tourism & Tea for exports & imports of oil...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Much Know
#66 Posted : Wednesday, December 02, 2009 7:05:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,548
Seems this stock is totally under the mercy of wazungu, wameenda wapi these "foreigners", what will make them come back?
A New Kenya
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anasazi
#67 Posted : Wednesday, December 02, 2009 9:54:38 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/8/2007
Posts: 675
Sasa when do you guys think I should offload this thing? Been monitoring... All I want is to make back my money! If I can do it with 2 bob or 1 bob on top of that 5 bob hakuna shida..
Form is temporary, class is permanent
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VituVingiSana
#68 Posted : Thursday, December 03, 2009 7:18:50 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,117
Location: Nairobi
@muchknow - Stability. Most foreign buyers don't like to hear war-like noises unless they are selling guns, bullets, pangas, etc
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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mkatenusu
#69 Posted : Tuesday, December 08, 2009 8:19:07 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/3/2009
Posts: 4
Location: kenya
could "wazungu" be leaving this counter today? 9.26M shares traded so far (11:18am) with approximately 67.28% of sales being from foreigners. @vvs, whats your take?
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egitau
#70 Posted : Tuesday, December 08, 2009 9:24:51 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/11/2009
Posts: 25
Seems everyone want out at 5 bob or above but have to wait kidogo maybe end of January for the buyers we prepare ourselves 3.80 here we came.Applause
Knowledge Is Power But Action Get Things Done
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VituVingiSana
#71 Posted : Tuesday, December 08, 2009 9:30:14 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,117
Location: Nairobi
@mkatenusu - I have no idea why foreigners are selling today... without more details it is tuff to say.

Is it a single seller?
Did the seller buy at 3/50 thus making 25%?
Is there is a cash redemption?
Are they balancing their portfolio before 31 Dec?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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kizee
#72 Posted : Wednesday, December 09, 2009 2:29:03 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
VituVingiSana wrote:
@kizee - Kenya Shilling tries to track the US$ when going down but not when US$ is getting stronger!

KShs will depend on Tourism & Tea for exports & imports of oil...

...

sori to disagree but this is not true....theres a direct correlation between usd movements and usdkes movements...i hav a correaltion matrix that shows the following

1.kes and the dow jones industrial index hav a -93 pct correaltion
2.kes and the cable(gbp/usd) have a -85 pct correaltion
3.kes and the euro hav a -84 percent correlation...long story short...wat this means is that kes movements are largely dependant on usd movements(holding all other factots constant)...i will post the matrix once i figure out how to....
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VituVingiSana
#73 Posted : Wednesday, December 09, 2009 3:33:47 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,117
Location: Nairobi
@kizee - I was being facetious... but it often seems (until recently) that the net effect was a LOSS of value vs US$. The Fisher Effect.

I somehow hope its on the other foot! A smart CBK should be buying Yuan not US$.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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kizee
#74 Posted : Wednesday, December 09, 2009 8:39:31 PM
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Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
vvs

my point was that kes and the kenyan asset markets-fixed income,stocks etc is very highly correlated to other more developed markets....so if ur in investor in kenya it wud be wise for u to be aware of wats hapening out there...as for cbk and yuan..isnt the yuan controlled? unless china gave us some
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VituVingiSana
#75 Posted : Thursday, December 10, 2009 7:59:52 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,117
Location: Nairobi
@kizee - Not as highly correlated as you make it out... Illiquidity is part of the reason...

On the Yuan... yes but GoK/CBK has more options than we do... can also negotiate with chinks to let CBK buy/hold Yuan... I wish I could by Yuan....
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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kizee
#76 Posted : Thursday, December 10, 2009 8:13:37 AM
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Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
[quote=VituVingiSana]@kizee - Not as highly correlated as you make it out... Illiquidity is part of the reason...

...a correaltion of over 80 percent cannot be termed as anything other than high...as i said i did a study of various markets/ccys against the kes and the nse..the data was from reuters so extremly credible....
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VituVingiSana
#77 Posted : Thursday, December 10, 2009 8:59:18 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,117
Location: Nairobi
@kizee Please let me know the correlations you found... but provide the indices as well...

The US$-KES I can understand... Our imports & exports are primarily priced in US$

I am sceptical on the stocks.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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kizee
#78 Posted : Thursday, December 10, 2009 10:38:19 AM
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Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
do u hav a reuters extra screen?
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VituVingiSana
#79 Posted : Thursday, December 10, 2009 11:41:38 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,117
Location: Nairobi
no
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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kizee
#80 Posted : Thursday, December 10, 2009 4:27:17 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
ok...will export the data to excel and try and paste it here....
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