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KPC IPO - Bearish Noise
MaichBlack
#31 Posted : Saturday, February 28, 2026 10:15:52 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,910
The Uganda KPC deal: Influence without majority ownership!!!

Terrible news to anyone who bought KPC shares and Kenyans in general!

Uganda now has veto power in decisions made at KPC! Influence without majority ownership.

When a major customer who has strategic reasons to keep tarriffs/prices low has the veto power in a company that you own shares in, you can kiss profit growth good bye.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
xtina
#32 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 12:33:03 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/26/2008
Posts: 401
Applause Oversubscribed by ~674 million shares Applause Applause Applause Tweets from KPC X page: The #KPCIPO opened on 19th January 2026 and closed on 24th February 2026. We offered 11,812,644,350 shares at 9 shillings each. The total number of shares applied for stood at 12,486,78,724, translating to an overall subscription rate of 105.7% #KPCIPOResults #AFutureYouCanShare

KPC
@kenyapipeline
·
7m
7.95B shares (67.32%) have been allocated to Kenyan individual & institutional investors.

#KPCIPOResults
#AFutureYouCanShare

I expect a market correction in the next few weeks, going by past IPOs in Kenya

EDIT: Actually there may not be a very big price correction as this has all the hallmarks of illiquidity:

KPC
@kenyapipeline
Here’s the breakdown of the share allocations:

Government of Kenya – 35%
Institutional Investors – 41%
East African Community – 21.22%
Retail Investors – 2.56%
Foreign Investors – 0.02%
KPC Employees – 0.06%
Oil Marketers – 0.014%
obiero
#33 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 2:13:05 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,321
Location: nairobi
xtina wrote:
Applause Oversubscribed by ~674 million shares Applause Applause Tweets from KPC X page: The #KPCIPO opened on 19th January 2026 and closed on 24th February 2026. We offered 11,812,644,350 shares at 9 shillings each. The total number of shares applied for stood at 12,486,78,724, translating to an overall subscription rate of 105.7% #KPCIPOResults #AFutureYouCanShare

KPC
@kenyapipeline
·
7m
7.95B shares (67.32%) have been allocated to Kenyan individual & institutional investors.

#KPCIPOResults
#AFutureYouCanShare

I expect a market correction in the next few weeks, going by past IPOs in Kenya

Only a blind person couldn't see that this would be an oversubscription
COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
mufasa
#34 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 2:20:41 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 240
How's the distribution across the sectors?
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
mufasa
#35 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 2:23:23 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 240
@xtina thanks. I've seen the allocations.

I think that's good for the retail investor, the likelihood of hitting 12bob in the coming month is high.

This thing will go up before it comes down
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
My 2 cents
#36 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 2:49:29 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,091
To all the people celebrating results, please be a little more sophisticated in your analysis. The IPO was largely snubbed by retail and international investors both of whom were initially allocated 20% each.
Institutional investors who were initially allocated 20% now hold 41%. Were they strongly nudged to take up more? Just as Uganda was also cajoled to take up more. I would hesitate to label this a successful IPO.
My 2 cents
#37 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 3:06:43 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,091
The oil marketing companies and KPC staff initially allocated 15% and 5% respectively also snubbed the IPO.

The underallocations were taken up by GoK

Guys this IPO failed for all intents and purposes.
xtina
#38 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 3:20:43 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/26/2008
Posts: 401
mufasa wrote:
@xtina thanks. I've seen the allocations.

I think that's good for the retail investor, the likelihood of hitting 12bob in the coming month is high.

This thing will go up before it comes down


I would be surprised if that were the case, retail at 2.56% was almost irrelevant to the outcome and they are the ones most likely to sell but as we have seen, never say never
Kusadikika
#39 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 4:29:06 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 2,723
My 2 cents wrote:
The oil marketing companies and KPC staff initially allocated 15% and 5% respectively also snubbed the IPO.

The underallocations were taken up by GoK

Guys this IPO failed for all intents and purposes.


Exactly. It was a complete flop. Kenya Institutional Investors is NSSF which is GOK controlled. So what happened here is GOK sold KPC to itself. Or rather misallocated Kenyans pension money to overpay for an asset that everyone else refused to buy. OMCs keeping away should tell you something, they would have been the most interested. They understand the business better than anyone else and would have had access to the most funds.
obiero
#40 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 5:06:44 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,321
Location: nairobi
My 2 cents wrote:
To all the people celebrating results, please be a little more sophisticated in your analysis. The IPO was largely snubbed by retail and international investors both of whom were initially allocated 20% each.
Institutional investors who were initially allocated 20% now hold 41%. Were they strongly nudged to take up more? Just as Uganda was also cajoled to take up more. I would hesitate to label this a successful IPO.

Hehe. A win is a win
COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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