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Bear is finally over
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VituVingiSana
#31 Posted : Sunday, December 29, 2024 10:01:59 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
wukan wrote:
NSE 20 share index is up 32% this year. Equities was best bet for the year Applause

macro traders have seen the best year. From shorting Kshs to 160 to mopping off the weak hands in equities and squeezing GoK on bond yields.

To a better year

Kaende sana!
Only a few of the NSE 20 have done very well. Also one cannot buy the NSE20 like one can the S&P500. A missed opportunity by the NSE i.e. offering a tradable index.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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mufasa
#32 Posted : Monday, December 30, 2024 8:42:48 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 238
I'm really keen on NMG given the efforts they are making on the digital space.
Trying to workout if they are likely to pay dividends in 2025. That would be a game changer.
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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wukan
#33 Posted : Monday, December 30, 2024 4:48:18 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,653
VituVingiSana wrote:
wukan wrote:
NSE 20 share index is up 32% this year. Equities was best bet for the year Applause

macro traders have seen the best year. From shorting Kshs to 160 to mopping off the weak hands in equities and squeezing GoK on bond yields.

To a better year

Kaende sana!
Only a few of the NSE 20 have done very well. Also one cannot buy the NSE20 like one can the S&P500. A missed opportunity by the NSE i.e. offering a tradable index.


Second last trading day and from where I stand, I will beat the index this year. Waiting for tomorrow's final numbers for 2024. Pray Pray

Today the NSE 20 was at 1993 only 7 points from the 2000 mark. Tomorrow let's turn up at our best. We must be seen...smile

There was an ETF that was to be launched based on the NSE 10 index but it has been delayed. Missed opportunity by the promoters
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wukan
#34 Posted : Tuesday, December 31, 2024 4:23:47 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,653
NSE 20 index has ended the year at 2010.

NSE 10 index at 1302

What a year that was Applause Applause Applause Applause

See you folks in 2025
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, December 31, 2024 4:28 PM | Reason: Not specified
My 2 cents
#35 Posted : Sunday, January 05, 2025 10:37:15 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,089
Stock Market returns = Dividend Yield + Capital Gains(Losses) + PE Expansion (Contraction).
During the bear market, for those of us with dividend paying shares - that was all we relied on to keep us sane.
Now we look forward to the other two components of share returns. Happy 2025!!
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wukan
#36 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2025 8:17:38 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,653
I have spent 7 days of 2025 thinking about my 2025 strategy...my peni mbili mawaidha

1. NSE 20 index is still targeting the 3200 level so let your winners run.

2. Winning strategy is really to look at the data anomaly. You need to research a lot and when you see it aim for the heart and go for the full trade.

3. Divide your portfolio into manageable units.

4. Work in silence-play your cards close to the chest. Understand no one is coming to save you and go out there and make it work for you.

5. Mr. Market is separating the men from the boys. What worked in the last 10 years may not work in the next 10. Some of us have to hang out with the big boys now and have to run faster.

6. Pick good managers. Looks for firms with recent meaningful boardroom shakeups. I think many corporate suites are stuck in the last decade or wallow in the nostalgia of the kibaki era. Avoid such.

7. Be aggressive- half measures don't work.

8. Play the long game- the short game is exciting, but the money is in the long plays.

9. Aim to change the world- shake up the investment world with your trades and don't get stuck living in the other people's dogma.

10. Discipline- don't be complacent, don't be target-fixated, don't be dumb money.

2025 theme is tubebwe tena!
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obiero
#37 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2025 9:37:31 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
wukan wrote:
I have spent 7 days of 2025 thinking about my 2025 strategy...my peni mbili mawaidha

1. NSE 20 index is still targeting the 3200 level so let your winners run.

2. Winning strategy is really to look at the data anomaly. You need to research a lot and when you see it aim for the heart and go for the full trade.

3. Divide your portfolio into manageable units.

4. Work in silence-play your cards close to the chest. Understand no one is coming to save you and go out there and make it work for you.

5. Mr. Market is separating the men from the boys. What worked in the last 10 years may not work in the next 10. Some of us have to hang out with the big boys now and have to run faster.

6. Pick good managers. Looks for firms with recent meaningful boardroom shakeups. I think many corporate suites are stuck in the last decade or wallow in the nostalgia of the kibaki era. Avoid such.

7. Be aggressive- half measures don't work.

8. Play the long game- the short game is exciting, but the money is in the long plays.

9. Aim to change the world- shake up the investment world with your trades and don't get stuck living in the other people's dogma.

10. Discipline- don't be complacent, don't be target-fixated, don't be dumb money.

2025 theme is tubebwe tena!


Profound words

KQ ABP 4.26
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Ericsson
#38 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2025 5:37:59 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
My 2 cents wrote:
Stock Market returns = Dividend Yield + Capital Gains(Losses) + PE Expansion (Contraction).
During the bear market, for those of us with dividend paying shares - that was all we relied on to keep us sane.
Now we look forward to the other two components of share returns. Happy 2025!!


Expound on PE Expansion (Contraction).
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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My 2 cents
#39 Posted : Thursday, January 09, 2025 8:57:05 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,089
Ericsson wrote:
My 2 cents wrote:
Stock Market returns = Dividend Yield + Capital Gains(Losses) + PE Expansion (Contraction).
During the bear market, for those of us with dividend paying shares - that was all we relied on to keep us sane.
Now we look forward to the other two components of share returns. Happy 2025!!


Expound on PE Expansion (Contraction).

The P/E expansion component of share returns refers to the rise in a stock's price due to an increase in its Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. During the bear market, P/E ratios on the NSE have been exceptionally low (below 5). As the market recovers and P/E ratios revert to more typical levels, this adjustment will translate into higher stock prices.

For example, consider KenGen, which currently has a P/E ratio of 4.2. Historically, KenGen's P/E ratio has ranged between 8 and 12. If the P/E ratio expands to above 8, we can reasonably expect KenGen's stock price to rise above 8.2 (calculated as 8 x the current earnings per share of approximately 1.0). This illustrates how P/E expansion can significantly contribute to stock price growth during market recoveries.
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, January 09, 2025 8:58 PM | Reason: Not specified
wukan
#40 Posted : Tuesday, April 22, 2025 3:25:05 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,653
Started off the year on aggressive mode but I'm now convinced to go on a defensive play.




Know when to fold...
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