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Why dustbowl is the future
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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guru me wrote:Agree with the view that Kajiado will def expand if for nothing else, as a result of the natural growth of Nairobi.
The growth does need to be managed and not just allowed to happen organically as it has if DC is to live up to its full potential.
Some things that need to be addressed in my opinion are:
1. Water - there is a perennial crisis over dry taps for most residents. This despite the fact that Athi river is delivering millions of gallons of water to the Indian Ocean - and sometimes flooding peoples residences in the process - each year.
2. Industries: Despite a proliferation of Universities in DC owing to cheap (er) land, there are very few industries of note that have set up shop in DC as far as I can remember. Well there is EPZ and Kenchick etc - but these were pre existing and not very large. Other than the cement companies in Athir River cant think of any large scale industrial complexes that are being set up in the region. It may very well be a symptom of the incompetence of national government in attracting new industries to the country that spill over to the counties. But truth is for the DC to grow, as with all other counties, it needs to attract and incentivise industries to create employment within the county.
3. Infrastructure especially roads: DC has been the rational choice for Kenyans looking to move into home ownership owing to affordability of land and subsequently cheaper costs of home ownership. Sadly for those who end up buying or building homes in DC the realities of the daily commute push them back to Nairobery. Hopefully the train terminals resolve this issue but still feel there is no substitution for an efficient road network. Rail is very rigid in its routing and for that reason I remain unconvinced it alone will solve the issue. Unless we develop a comprehensive rail system similar to NY subway or London underground, a railway with a single destination though an improvement will not fully resolve the issue. Kitengela town as an example already needs a road expansion. Traffic there can be a biatch.
4. Speculators - I being one of them, need to be heavily punished for any parcels that they hold not put to productive use. Speculation pushes land prices up and in some areas leads to the inability to create sufficiently dense communities to allow for proliferation of support and essential services. There just is no critical mass for even the county government to justify spending money to bring roads, water, elec to some places because firstly - some people are holding land, unwilling to develop or sell at current prices, and secondly those willing to develop the land cannot afford the land prices and are forced to buy further inland where they can afford it. Only thing is this may be too far for them - far outweighing the joys of home ownership. Sort of a self reinforcing loop.
5. Master planning - essential to avoid creating a massive shanty town. Ahsante for this enjoyable read. These are the types of posts that keep some of us coming back to Wazoo. I agree with you on water, but these are simple to solve issues if everyone (including the national and county governments) took some simple steps to ensure water harvesting and storage is taken care of. You are so right about Athi River. It is comedic that Jewel in the Crown (Kite) has perennial water shortages yet Athi ambles along to the salty sea unharassed. Isatragedy. This means we personally have to take initiative to build enough storage per household to make sure we are water secure for months and months at a go each year. I beg to differ with you on industries jameni. A drive down the stretch from Kisaju to Isinya reveals hundreds of industries coming up at rapid clip besides the ones you mentioned. There are tile manufacturers, feeds manufacturers, steel fabricators, building contractors, printers, glass manufacturers, precast concrete manufacturers, LPG plants and everything in between coming up like weeds! In fact I am scared Kitengela to Kajiado stretch will become more of an industrial corridor at the expense of the residential and service segments but only time will tell. Please do not forget that the whole reason Jewel in the Crown came into existence as a residential hub was the combination of cheap land - as you correctly pointed out - and a proliferation of industry - EPZ, cement etc. At 300,000 residents I highly doubt more than 20-30% of that figure are commuters to Nairobi. I think we Nairobians tend to have a bias in seeing only what is familiar to us. A couple of Nairobi-centric people complain about the commute and all of a sudden everybody thinks everyone in Kitengela commutes which is a terrible misconception IMHO. Kite roads are already on turbo expansion mode. Bypasses are being built. Commuter railway station is coming up, slip roads have been tarmacked and feeder roads -though unpaved - are there galore. Isinya-Kiserian-Matasia-Ngong drive will be an epic one once the Isinya Kiserian stretch is 100% complete. With KURA taking over Ngong and Kajiado new municipalities, the only way to go is up. Funnily enough I enjoy murram roads these days. There is something very rustic and natural about murram roads which blend very well with nature as God created it. They are also perfect for jogging on. Ngong has the most potential on this infrastructure score IMHO. If the handlers of the town do not screw it up! I agree with you on the importance of having critical mass. But as you have pointed out this is happening organically as Kenyans continue to breed like rats and Nairobi expands without in a 40km radius. Remember when Karen was considered the bundus (bush?) well Kerarapon (Karen ward side) became the new Karen of yore and then Kerarapon - Ngong side soon became the next frontier, now Ngong town is the next with prices following. The same is happening in Kite, Rongai and surrounds. Critical mass happened in Kite CBD and surrounds kitaambo, now it is spreading further out like a bad smell but in a good way. Kisaju was considered the boonies as little as ten years ago. Now sprawling estates are booming hard there. ISinya was a NO GO ZONE for any serious investor just a few years ago. Everybody laughed when you told them you were investing there. Now it is booming as land skyrockets in price and finding an affordable acre is an uphill task! Bottom line if people think DC is red hot already they haven't seen nothing yet. As the population grows and Nairobi core becomes out of reach in terms of affordability for 99% of Nairobians who want to be owners and not renters, DC as you have pointed out is the natural destination- but not for long. Already prices are getting crazy. Those who zubaa now will have to run to Kajiado town and beyond in the coming few years to find something pocket friendly that they could have got closer to town had they invested wisely and struck while the iron was still hot. 
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/1/2019 Posts: 170 Location: Nairobi
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Not trying to spoil the party here but facts are facts. My opinion is that to say DC is the future is a very biased view of reality. Yes, Nairobi will grow and its borders will expand, but this does not at all imply the outskirts will see better ROI than the CBD. Investing in the suburbs is great, it will bring back some profit, but acquiring Apartments of similar value today near CBD will bring back similar if not better returns (I am rooting for better, obviously, because am biased too). Case in point, look at London, New York, and other older cities. Inner city properties have continued to pay more handsome returns than the suburbs. To quote this very balanced article (link below), "In the past, urban assets have outperformed suburban asset returns in both office and multifamily sectors. From 1996 to 2016, suburban multifamily fell behind its urban counterpart by 80 basis points, while the suburban office sector underperformed urban by 110 basis points." Just my 2 cents. Link: https://www.nreionline.c...-suburban-cre-investment
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/5/2010 Posts: 2,459
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https://www.businessdail...6836-vnae2mz/index.html
@mugundaman, any idea where this land is ? I have a feeling this project will kick-off before Uhuru's 8,000 houses on EAPCC land. In Athi river, I know not more than 4 families who own land more than 1,000 acres. A project of this magnitude would trigger a micro-economy boom within the area. That would make very many people rich and I want to be among those people.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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NewMoney wrote:Not trying to spoil the party here but facts are facts. My opinion is that to say DC is the future is a very biased view of reality. Yes, Nairobi will grow and its borders will expand, but this does not at all imply the outskirts will see better ROI than the CBD. Investing in the suburbs is great, it will bring back some profit, but acquiring Apartments of similar value today near CBD will bring back similar if not better returns (I am rooting for better, obviously, because am biased too). Case in point, look at London, New York, and other older cities. Inner city properties have continued to pay more handsome returns than the suburbs. To quote this very balanced article (link below), "In the past, urban assets have outperformed suburban asset returns in both office and multifamily sectors. From 1996 to 2016, suburban multifamily fell behind its urban counterpart by 80 basis points, while the suburban office sector underperformed urban by 110 basis points." Just my 2 cents. Link: https://www.nreionline.c...suburban-cre-investment Just relax and watch papa...relax and watch  . We are not just talking ROI, but the future conurbation of human settlement that is a game-changer socio-economically for the next 100 years and beyond. It's like saying you would not invest in Nairobi in 1899 because Machakos (which was eventually bypassed by the Nairobi Railway line) was the capital city of Kenya at that time and ROI was very high hapo.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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FRM2011 wrote:https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Chinese-group-to-build-Sh200bn-Athi-River-city-city-plans/539546-5036836-vnae2mz/index.html
@mugundaman, any idea where this land is ? I have a feeling this project will kick-off before Uhuru's 8,000 houses on EAPCC land.
In Athi river, I know not more than 4 families who own land more than 1,000 acres. A project of this magnitude would trigger a micro-economy boom within the area. That would make very many people rich and I want to be among those people. No idea whatsoever where the land is but I'm very happy that they are taking place  . You will never go wrong investing near this city or anywhere in the Kitengela-Athi river area for that matter. Half of Nairobi might migrate there within the next 25 years especially after SGR reaches malaba, commuter rails and other infra are done and dusted.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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Ngong stadium phase 1 to be completed by May at long last!  Roadside hawkers - gone Largest market in East and central Africa - under construction Stadium - being built At this rate I might have to rebaptize Ngong as the new Jewel in the Crown instead of Kitengela Either way may both towns boom to the skies! http://countypress.co.ke...0ioUpySx9WYKxiG35TbL4jms
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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Uhunye moves Madaraka celebrations to DC, drops 100m there http://countypress.co.ke...tes-sh100m-for-stadium/
As I said before hata baba Ngina knows DC is the future  Wenye wana macho wameona tu.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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Fine but at least he left the 100m there so DC can host in future
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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I must say I'm impressed with Kitengela town. Had not visited the town since 2011, it looks bigger and more beautiful. Hope Kajiado govt uses its World Bank's Kenya Urban Support Programme funds well. Such fast growing towns end up looking ugly with time.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,592
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MugundaMan wrote:Ngong stadium phase 1 to be completed by May at long last! Roadside hawkers - gone Largest market in East and central Africa - under construction Stadium - being built At this rate I might have to rebaptize Ngong as the new Jewel in the Crown instead of Kitengela Either way may both towns boom to the skies! http://countypress.co.ke...ioUpySx9WYKxiG35TbL4jms
Ngong will do much better because of the Kisii-they have a tenacity for business and starting to dominate Ngong, the new shorter route to Kisii through Ngong will work wonders for this town.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,592
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NewMoney wrote:Not trying to spoil the party here but facts are facts. My opinion is that to say DC is the future is a very biased view of reality. Yes, Nairobi will grow and its borders will expand, but this does not at all imply the outskirts will see better ROI than the CBD. Investing in the suburbs is great, it will bring back some profit, but acquiring Apartments of similar value today near CBD will bring back similar if not better returns (I am rooting for better, obviously, because am biased too). Case in point, look at London, New York, and other older cities. Inner city properties have continued to pay more handsome returns than the suburbs. To quote this very balanced article (link below), "In the past, urban assets have outperformed suburban asset returns in both office and multifamily sectors. From 1996 to 2016, suburban multifamily fell behind its urban counterpart by 80 basis points, while the suburban office sector underperformed urban by 110 basis points." Just my 2 cents. Link: https://www.nreionline.c...suburban-cre-investment I am with you on biased towards inner city real estate. Eventually suburb people will get tired of those 4 hour commutes
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/6/2016 Posts: 165 Location: Nairobi
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I don't know about that theory vis a vis London, the east was always a s**thole, the city started to expand, canary wharf came up, gentrification then the olympics came up, greenwich, now the east part of the city is fetching top rates for both res and commercial properties. real estate literally doubled in a space of 5yrs. problem with inner city is it's older money, the new generation need something cheaper to allow them get their foot on the ladder kwanza
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/28/2015 Posts: 9,562 Location: Rodi Kopany, Homa Bay
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I have been thinking about this "dustbowl is the future" thing but the more i look at it the more I now think that dustbowl IS NOT the future. If you have some cash it is better to put it in a developed area where you are guaranteed of instant returns and growth in value. Eg a 3m eddemann property in mombasa rd will instantly start giving you 30k rental income each month. And if you can afford an apartment in lavington, kilimani etc its even better as you will immediately starting earning at least 80k rent and also the value of your property will go up exponentially since all the newly minted millionaires want to live there - so the demand for rentals or houses for sale is always high, and that demand is by people who have deep pockets. Even a suraya bedsitter huko ngong road or a kirinyaga rd bedsitter will give you good returns. But putting your cash in some hyena infested dustbowl bushland and praying for the city to expand towards your direction may not be a wise investment decision. One it is very difficult to resell such a property and also there are so many such plots that the prices remain depressed. Developing such a property for rentals, house for sale or farming will not work. Basically it's literally throwing your money into the bush while you suffer repaying sacco loans. The only one who makes money in those settings is the one who subdivides the land and sells to you, he makes his millions and leaves you holding "useless plots" in the middle of nowhere. 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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wukan wrote:
I am with you on biased towards inner city real estate. Eventually suburb people will get tired of those 4 hour commutes
Keep hope alive papa. To think that 300,000 residents of Kitengela all "commute to Nairobi" daily is the height of delusionality .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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snifadog wrote:I don't know about that theory vis a vis London, the east was always a s**thole, the city started to expand, canary wharf came up, gentrification then the olympics came up, greenwich, now the east part of the city is fetching top rates for both res and commercial properties. real estate literally doubled in a space of 5yrs. problem with inner city is it's older money, the new generation need something cheaper to allow them get their foot on the ladder kwanza Have you been to Fig Tree Ngara area in the pic below (Wukan's favourite surburb)lately? My friend, at night it looks more dingy than some of the dingiest hoods in Nairobi. In the West all the rich people of all races fled the inner city core to the surburbs and left them decayed with blight. Look at Hillbrow in Jozi. My friend hapo ni kubaya. Try walking there at any time of day or night and see if you do not get mugged or stabbed multiple times. Hoods like Ngara are heading there in the next 20 years. 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,592
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MugundaMan wrote:snifadog wrote:I don't know about that theory vis a vis London, the east was always a s**thole, the city started to expand, canary wharf came up, gentrification then the olympics came up, greenwich, now the east part of the city is fetching top rates for both res and commercial properties. real estate literally doubled in a space of 5yrs. problem with inner city is it's older money, the new generation need something cheaper to allow them get their foot on the ladder kwanza Have you been to Fig Tree Ngara area in the pic below (Wukan's favourite surburb)lately? My friend, at night it looks more dingy than some of the dingiest hoods in Nairobi. In the West all the rich people of all races fled the inner city core to the surburbs and left them decayed with blight. Look at Hillbrow in Jozi. My friend hapo ni kubaya. Try walking there at any time of day or night and see if you do not get mugged or stabbed multiple times. Hoods like Ngara are heading there in the next 20 years. In this dingy hood the prices keep going up and up. These city view suites we discussed sometime back at 1.8m now at 3.25m. https://www.signatureafr...city-view-suites-ngara/
Quote:“The tender for construction of low-cost houses in Ngara has been won by China State Construction Engineering. We will be breaking ground tomorrow (Thursday) and they will be expected to deliver the first 100 units in the next one month,” said the PS. The project, which will run for two years through a design, build and finance model comprises 105 one-bedroom units, 540 two-bedroom types and 855-three bedroom houses. The estate borders Park Road Primary School and Muslim Academy. On completing the first 400 units, the developer will be paid 20 per cent of the contact value, 40 per cent upon project completion and 40 per cent after the defect liability period. https://www.businessdail...2816-kxac2cz/index.html
Edermann is busy Quote:The Nairobi County government has launched a Sh7 billion public residential apartments project in Ngara Estate. The project, River Bank Apartments, will see 3,000 units comprising eight blocks with 34 storeys each put up for low and middle income earners in line with the government’s commitment to provide affordable shelter for Kenyans. The venture, undertaken by Erdemann Property Limited, is set to be completed in less than one and half years. https://nairobinews.nati...ion-cheap-homes-project
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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wukan wrote:MugundaMan wrote:snifadog wrote:I don't know about that theory vis a vis London, the east was always a s**thole, the city started to expand, canary wharf came up, gentrification then the olympics came up, greenwich, now the east part of the city is fetching top rates for both res and commercial properties. real estate literally doubled in a space of 5yrs. problem with inner city is it's older money, the new generation need something cheaper to allow them get their foot on the ladder kwanza Have you been to Fig Tree Ngara area in the pic below (Wukan's favourite surburb)lately? My friend, at night it looks more dingy than some of the dingiest hoods in Nairobi. In the West all the rich people of all races fled the inner city core to the surburbs and left them decayed with blight. Look at Hillbrow in Jozi. My friend hapo ni kubaya. Try walking there at any time of day or night and see if you do not get mugged or stabbed multiple times. Hoods like Ngara are heading there in the next 20 years. In this dingy hood the prices keep going up and up. These city view suites we discussed sometime back at 1.8m now at 3.25m.https://www.signatureafr...city-view-suites-ngara/
Quote:“The tender for construction of low-cost houses in Ngara has been won by China State Construction Engineering. We will be breaking ground tomorrow (Thursday) and they will be expected to deliver the first 100 units in the next one month,” said the PS. The project, which will run for two years through a design, build and finance model comprises 105 one-bedroom units, 540 two-bedroom types and 855-three bedroom houses. The estate borders Park Road Primary School and Muslim Academy. On completing the first 400 units, the developer will be paid 20 per cent of the contact value, 40 per cent upon project completion and 40 per cent after the defect liability period. https://www.businessdail...2816-kxac2cz/index.html
Edermann is busy Quote:The Nairobi County government has launched a Sh7 billion public residential apartments project in Ngara Estate. The project, River Bank Apartments, will see 3,000 units comprising eight blocks with 34 storeys each put up for low and middle income earners in line with the government’s commitment to provide affordable shelter for Kenyans. The venture, undertaken by Erdemann Property Limited, is set to be completed in less than one and half years. https://nairobinews.nati...ion-cheap-homes-project
Which city view suites? The squalid 1 BEDROOM ones that HAVE NOT EVEN BEEN BUILT YET? How can a building that has not been built yet appreciate in value? As I said some pipo are truly delusional. Started with Kirinyaga rd "luxury bedsitters" and now this We can post how prices have rocketed in DC as well as thousands of proposed projects hapo hapo too so what is your point ? What you have not addressed is the urban inner-city decay happening in Ngara that has turned it into a glorified slum of sorts that is getting worse by the day! Why some people want to bury their heads in the sand in the face of incontrovertible FACTS is bemusing to me; https://www.businessdail...59216-k98ea2/index.html
Quote:The estate has deteriorated as others located near the central business district such as Upper Hill, Parklands and Westlands sprout with skyscrapers. Property prices also have stagnated and a number of buildings are vacant.
Charles Ng’ang’a, a marketing executive at Hass Consult says the presence of street families and property owners from the 70s clinging onto their old buildings without developing them has eroded the value of most the properties.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/5/2010 Posts: 2,459
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wukan wrote:MugundaMan wrote:Ngong stadium phase 1 to be completed by May at long last! Roadside hawkers - gone Largest market in East and central Africa - under construction Stadium - being built At this rate I might have to rebaptize Ngong as the new Jewel in the Crown instead of Kitengela Either way may both towns boom to the skies! http://countypress.co.ke...ioUpySx9WYKxiG35TbL4jms
Ngong will do much better because of the Kisii-they have a tenacity for business and starting to dominate Ngong, the new shorter route to Kisii through Ngong will work wonders for this town. Let me pose a question to you ? What drives a town or city ? My answer, the economic activity surrounding it. This in turn determines the purchasing power of the residents. All the top cement factories (7 of them) and steel factories operate from Kitengela. I don't any other town where a pub is full on a Monday afternoon. There is more cash in Kitengela than all other towns in Kenya save for the top 4 i.e. NRB,MSA,KSM & NKR. I have my doubts whether NKR & KSM can beat Kitengela. Ongata Rongai is a short 20KM away from the CBD. Kitengela is 32km. Rongai has 4 established universities i.e. Catholic, Nazarene, Multi-media and Adventist. It is the closest we have to a university town, but it will never get the kind of money that flows in Kitengela. Back to your Ngong, what does it have to offer ?
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