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kengen announcement :rights issue resolution
kyt
#61 Posted : Friday, December 11, 2015 10:51:33 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/7/2007
Posts: 2,182
Whether wanjiku was screwed or not is neither here nor there. No one was forced to buy kengen. So shauri yao
LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
kawi254
#62 Posted : Friday, December 11, 2015 11:50:06 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2015
Posts: 467
Location: Nairobi
kyt wrote:
Whether wanjiku was screwed or not is neither here nor there. No one was forced to buy kengen. So shauri yao



Wazua has so many sadists who take joy in other people's missfortunes in NSE...from Obiero's KQ, guru's Home Afrika to wanjiku's Kengen. Everyone loses and profits in this NSE or in any other business that has risk. Mourn with those who mourn, rejoice with those who are rejoicing.
iris
#63 Posted : Friday, December 11, 2015 12:51:21 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2014
Posts: 228
Location: Nairobi
kawi254 wrote:
kyt wrote:
Whether wanjiku was screwed or not is neither here nor there. No one was forced to buy kengen. So shauri yao



Wazua has so many sadists who take joy in other people's missfortunes in NSE...from Obiero's KQ, guru's Home Afrika to wanjiku's Kengen. Everyone loses and profits in this NSE or in any other business that has risk. Mourn with those who mourn, rejoice with those who are rejoicing.


@kawi254, I read you. It is amazing isn't it? But it is a good thing in its way that @kyt speaks up because he becomes useful in a way Trump is by saying what really is, so Wanjiku can at least be aware that she should not take Wazua advice unfiltered.
muandiwambeu
#64 Posted : Friday, December 11, 2015 1:27:31 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
iris wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
kyt wrote:
Whether wanjiku was screwed or not is neither here nor there. No one was forced to buy kengen. So shauri yao



Wazua has so many sadists who take joy in other people's missfortunes in NSE...from Obiero's KQ, guru's Home Afrika to wanjiku's Kengen. Everyone loses and profits in this NSE or in any other business that has risk. Mourn with those who mourn, rejoice with those who are rejoicing.


@kawi254, I read you. It is amazing isn't it? But it is a good thing in its way that @kyt speaks up because he becomes useful in a way Trump is by saying what really is, so Wanjiku can at least be aware that she should not take Wazua advice unfiltered.

Being honest with the reality someone lost chums here does not necessarily make someone (me) happy or reduce itsmile buying at forty was not wrong coz someone could not have locked his paper profits. Imagine even 2/= is in cross-hairs is so sweet, so is the play. Take a cold tusker and a chill pillLaughing out loudly
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
iris
#65 Posted : Friday, December 11, 2015 2:14:26 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2014
Posts: 228
Location: Nairobi
muandiwambeu wrote:
iris wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
kyt wrote:
Whether wanjiku was screwed or not is neither here nor there. No one was forced to buy kengen. So shauri yao



Wazua has so many sadists who take joy in other people's missfortunes in NSE...from Obiero's KQ, guru's Home Afrika to wanjiku's Kengen. Everyone loses and profits in this NSE or in any other business that has risk. Mourn with those who mourn, rejoice with those who are rejoicing.


@kawi254, I read you. It is amazing isn't it? But it is a good thing in its way that @kyt speaks up because he becomes useful in a way Trump is by saying what really is, so Wanjiku can at least be aware that she should not take Wazua advice unfiltered.

Being honest with the reality someone lost chums here does not necessarily make someone (me) happy or reduce itsmile buying at forty was not wrong coz someone could not have locked his paper profits. Imagine even 2/= is in cross-hairs is so sweet, so is the play. Take a cold tusker and a chill pillLaughing out loudly


Is the chill pill for me? If so, I don't think I need it. I was not talking about the "truth" that you (or wanjiku) lost money, but rather the truth that no one is really looking out for you including Wazuans and CMA. So you should feel "happy" that you will not be led along like a lamb for the second round.
guru267
#66 Posted : Friday, December 11, 2015 2:45:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
Technical analysis of the amount of money to be raised suggests the following;
The rights issue will be a 2:1 bringing total number of shares to be issued at 4.4bn
GOK will be allocated 70% or 3.08bn shares for the debt to equity conversion.
Private shareholders owning 30% will be left to scramble for the remaining 1.32bn shares.
The rights issue price will be about ksh.6.5
Private shareholders will be required to raise ksh.8.58bn
The conversion of GOK debt is as follows (3.08bn *6.5=20.02bn which equals the amount KENGEN debt converts to equity


I thought the Kengen board already approved the issuance of 7.8Bn shares to raise KES 28Bn meaning the rights price should be below 4bob..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Ericsson
#67 Posted : Friday, December 11, 2015 3:21:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,703
Location: NAIROBI
@guru267
Did u read the following statement
"but the maximum aggregate nominal amount of ordinary shares which may be allotted in
accordance with this authority shall be, seven billion eight hundred and one million six hundred and thirty
eight thousand five hundred and forty four (7,801,638,544) ordinary shares of Shs 2.50 each ranking
pari passu in all respects being the total number of existing unissued ordinary shares in the capital of the
Company."
7.8bn is the maximum which means they will only use part of them for the rights issue.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
kyt
#68 Posted : Friday, December 11, 2015 3:36:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/7/2007
Posts: 2,182
2006 everyone was lining to buy kengen; i can't be sorry to wanjiku for losing money, everybody loses money. Warren buffet was down 2bn dollars at some point (in paper loss) who felt sorry for him. It's the market, you win some you loose some. Why should anyone be sorry for investors of the stock exchange, they have money they can afford to lose anyway!
LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
murchr
#69 Posted : Friday, December 11, 2015 3:40:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
kyt wrote:
2006 everyone was lining to buy kengen; i can't be sorry to wanjiku for losing money, everybody loses money. Warren buffet was down 2bn dollars at some point (in paper loss) who felt sorry for him. It's the market, you win some you loose some. Why should anyone be sorry for investors of the stock exchange, they have money they can afford to lose anyway!


Those who bought at IPO price and sold at anything higher than that never lost money the high was 40+. Those who bought at 7 in 2011 and sold at 17 in 2013 made money. Dont generalize if you are still holding. Passengers here keep boarding and disembarking all the time.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Ericsson
#70 Posted : Friday, December 11, 2015 4:03:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,703
Location: NAIROBI
I bought at 7.8 and I see today it has closed at 7.95
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
guru267
#71 Posted : Friday, December 11, 2015 5:02:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
@guru267
Did u read the following statement
"but the maximum aggregate nominal amount of ordinary shares which may be allotted in
accordance with this authority shall be, seven billion eight hundred and one million six hundred and thirty
eight thousand five hundred and forty four (7,801,638,544) ordinary shares of Shs 2.50 each ranking
pari passu in all respects being the total number of existing unissued ordinary shares in the capital of the
Company."
7.8bn is the maximum which means they will only use part of them for the rights issue.


@Ericsson they authorized the additional 7.8Bn for the purpose of the upcoming rights issue... If another purpose comes up they will just authorize more shares...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Ericsson
#72 Posted : Friday, December 11, 2015 6:27:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,703
Location: NAIROBI
@guru267
I can guarantee u not all the 7.8bn shares will be issued.
They have already set the amount they wish to raise and how much of govt debt will be converted to equity for the purpose of GOK defending its rights issue.
The catch in the statement was "but the maximum aggregate".
If it is ksh.50bn which they wish to raise then all the 7.8bn shares would have been used.
For those waiting rights issue price at 4-4.50 pole.

NB:No company in the NSE has equal number of authorised shares same as the issued shares.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#73 Posted : Saturday, December 12, 2015 12:51:14 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,134
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
muandiwambeu wrote:
How wanjikus got screwed up in kengen was a marvel. Let's it all begin again. It's a wash and wear thing. And wash and wear again.


How exactly was Wanjiku screwed in Kengen??

For your info GOK offered 30% to the public in March 2006 at KES 11.90 which was oversubscribed by 236%. The company has consistently returned a profit, grown the balance sheet and paid a dividend.



The price has been higher than IPO price most of the time (rose to 40 post listing).


Kengen also successfully issued a KES 15B tax free PIBO at 12.5%.

Again how has Wanjiku been screwed by Kengen?

Utilities should be looked at as bonds i.e. a dividend yield instead of interest yield. KenGen will continue needing cash to expand.

It has done well over the years & is a virtual monopoly but the assets may not be worth what they are stated at.
The RoA and RoE are very low. Some assets may be over-priced on account of corruption & inefficiencies. The checks & balances may be few since there are few or no competitive benchmarks.

I will stay out of the Rights Issue but I will monitor it on an occasional basis.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#74 Posted : Saturday, December 12, 2015 7:22:32 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,703
Location: NAIROBI
@VituVingiSana
The price will always rise to match the dividend yield. The NSE is more dividend yield than interest yield barring any other issues such as rights issue.
Safaricom, Bamburi and BATare trading at their current prices because of the amount of dividend they give.If it weren't for the rights issue KENGEN could now be trading at the ksh.17 range per share.t
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
muandiwambeu
#75 Posted : Saturday, December 12, 2015 6:45:27 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
guru267 wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Technical analysis of the amount of money to be raised suggests the following;
The rights issue will be a 2:1 bringing total number of shares to be issued at 4.4bn
GOK will be allocated 70% or 3.08bn shares for the debt to equity conversion.
Private shareholders owning 30% will be left to scramble for the remaining 1.32bn shares.
The rights issue price will be about ksh.6.5
Private shareholders will be required to raise ksh.8.58bn
The conversion of GOK debt is as follows (3.08bn *6.5=20.02bn which equals the amount KENGEN debt converts to equity


I thought the Kengen board already approved the issuance of 7.8Bn shares to raise KES 28Bn meaning the rights price should be below 4bob..

Technically correct if the following assumptions are correct
1. Ratio of 2:1 is deployed implying that out of 7.8 authorised incremental number of share, only 2 times existing no. Of shares (2.xy bn) will be issued and called for payment at a discount to the current market price.
That automatically determines the rights price at around 6.5 and further prepositions that
A. Gova must convert it debt to equity 100% or if it does not do so it's rights are taken by the market...... But the Gova is in a fin. crunch, leaving an option that the market pays for its share of rights hence part of the Gavas debt gets paid from the proceeds. This means cash mob indirectly or omo as someone may wish to call it.
Now imagine the consequences of say 50 percent conversion. Scratching my head almost bald already.
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
Ericsson
#76 Posted : Saturday, December 12, 2015 11:36:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,703
Location: NAIROBI
The conversion of gava debt to equity will be done in such a way that gava maintains its 70% stake.
As below which is a caption from the financial statement
Borrowings awaiting conversion to equity 26(d) 20,151,541

KENGEN past issuances have always been 100% uptake or oversubscription.
The 2009 PIBO that was done in a severe bond market than this one being witnessed.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#77 Posted : Sunday, December 13, 2015 12:27:20 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,134
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
@VituVingiSana
The price will always rise to match the dividend yield. The NSE is more dividend yield than interest yield barring any other issues such as rights issue.
Safaricom, Bamburi and BATare trading at their current prices because of the amount of dividend they give.If it weren't for the rights issue KENGEN could now be trading at the ksh.17 range per share.t

What's the current Dividend Yield (after the W/Holding Tax)?
What's the current DPS?
Can the DPS be maintained?
What's the Dividend Yield vis-a-vis the recently floated IFB at 15% NETT of taxes?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#78 Posted : Sunday, December 13, 2015 12:28:59 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,134
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
The conversion of gava debt to equity will be done in such a way that gava maintains its 70% stake.
As below which is a caption from the financial statement
Borrowings awaiting conversion to equity 26(d) 20,151,541

KENGEN past issuances have always been 100% uptake or oversubscription.
The 2009 PIBO that was done in a severe bond market than this one being witnessed.

PIBO issued at 12.5%. The latest IFB issued at 15% [14.75% average]. The bond market is even worse today than it was in 2009.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#79 Posted : Sunday, December 13, 2015 12:59:57 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,703
Location: NAIROBI
@VituVingiSana
Not severe bond market but stock market.
The current dividend yield after witholding tax for the likes of safaricom is about 3.8% (basing on FY 2014/2015).
For KENGEN the dividend yield is 7.81%
The DPS is 0.65 with book closure on Wednesday 16 December 2015.
The DPS if you factor in the rights issue it will go down but the amount of money allocated as dividend will go up.
You can't compare dividend yield with interest on IFB net of taxes because share price has propensity of appreciation based on financial performance of the company.
A growth of profits translates in appreciation of share price and higher dividend which is not the case with bond market.
Even if profits of a company doubles the amount of interest/interest rate of the bond will not go up.It will remain as it is.That is why bond market is called fixed income.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ericsson
#80 Posted : Sunday, December 13, 2015 1:03:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,703
Location: NAIROBI
Kenya Power share price is doing poorly inspite of the good profits it makes because of very low dividend to shareholders.
I.e if you compare the ratio of dividend to net profits.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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