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My Picks for 2014
Tall Order
#31 Posted : Monday, July 28, 2014 9:44:04 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/9/2014
Posts: 130
Location: Nairobi
Good choices those were in early 2014 and your taking your picks in July again for the next 6 months. I've tried to track Longhorn and Liberty and none of my friends seems to favour any with the exception of Liberty for speculation purposes but thanks for your reinforcement commentary which may just help sway to or away from.
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#32 Posted : Monday, July 28, 2014 9:46:51 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Congrats @S.Mutaga 111 for the Great returns and nice commentary on CFCi
@SufficientlyP
S.Mutaga III
#33 Posted : Monday, July 28, 2014 12:49:17 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
I am happy to have outperformed the nse 20 share index. A good way to accumulate money to invest in real estate. On January, I asked my banker to loan me some cash for a real estate project, but I failed to qualify. my objective is to make a conservative 30% gain by end of the year from CFC Insurance and Longhorn and have enough capital for the project.
Happy Hunting Wazuans
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
S.Mutaga III
#34 Posted : Monday, July 28, 2014 8:22:19 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
guru267 wrote:
these picks will give one 50% gains at best... I'm looking for more from my portfolio!


Which were your options and how have they performed so far? I heard you were a Kenya Re and Home Africa disciple...
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
guru267
#35 Posted : Monday, July 28, 2014 9:13:52 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
S.Mutaga III wrote:
guru267 wrote:
these picks will give one 50% gains at best... I'm looking for more from my portfolio!


Which were your options and how have they performed so far? I heard you were a Kenya Re and Home Africa disciple...


And did you hear about my dear Unga bought at 18bob... or my sweet C&G I bought at 28 pre bonus??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
S.Mutaga III
#36 Posted : Monday, July 28, 2014 9:18:48 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
guru267 wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
guru267 wrote:
these picks will give one 50% gains at best... I'm looking for more from my portfolio!


Which were your options and how have they performed so far? I heard you were a Kenya Re and Home Africa disciple...


And did you hear about my dear Unga bought at 18bob... or my sweet C&G I bought at 28 pre bonus??


I wish I had the wisdom to buy those ones. Are they still nice buys?
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
whiteowl
#37 Posted : Monday, July 28, 2014 11:23:57 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
S.Mutaga III wrote:
I am happy to have outperformed the nse 20 share index. A good way to accumulate money to invest in real estate. On January, I asked my banker to loan me some cash for a real estate project, but I failed to qualify. my objective is to make a conservative 30% gain by end of the year from CFC Insurance and Longhorn and have enough capital for the project.
Happy Hunting Wazuans

congrats n all the best in your new picks. I'm now eying energy stocks but I guess those will require longer timeframes before I cash out.
Aguytrying
#38 Posted : Tuesday, July 29, 2014 8:31:37 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@smutaga. congrats on your achievements so far.
how have you determined that longhorn and liberty are undervalued. are you working with any net asset value figures?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
S.Mutaga III
#39 Posted : Tuesday, July 29, 2014 9:51:47 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
Aguytrying wrote:
@smutaga. congrats on your achievements so far.
how have you determined that longhorn and liberty are undervalued. are you working with any net asset value figures?

My valuation method is purely on P/E because they both have single digit P/E's. I would not use the NAV to value securities that are not distressed. NAV to me only makes sense when valuing distressed securities such as Mumias because they have a high chance of liquidation and hence you would like to know what you will get in case of such an event. For a security that is not in distress, I use P/E because all I care about is the return on investment I expect from the security, not the assets the company has. Some companies have very expensive assets but post meager profits, and therefore using the NAV could be very misleading. Those are my two Ugandan Shillings though, am not an expert in these things.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
sparkly
#40 Posted : Tuesday, July 29, 2014 10:17:26 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@smutaga. congrats on your achievements so far.
how have you determined that longhorn and liberty are undervalued. are you working with any net asset value figures?

My valuation method is purely on P/E because they both have single digit P/E's. I would not use the NAV to value securities that are not distressed. NAV to me only makes sense when valuing distressed securities such as Mumias because they have a high chance of liquidation and hence you would like to know what you will get in case of such an event. For a security that is not in distress, I use P/E because all I care about is the return on investment I expect from the security, not the assets the company has. Some companies have very expensive assets but post meager profits, and therefore using the NAV could be very misleading. Those are my two Ugandan Shillings though, am not an expert in these things.


Congrats @SM for the excellent return. Can't comment on the valuation of LH but the company simply doesn't excite me... A company that prints books in this digital age, i am not very optimistic on its longterm.

Pan Africa, CFC and HF i belief have good prospects. Selling these and putting the money in LH to me looks like a Zero-sum game. If i were you i would hold cash and wait for discounts on the bluechips, my 2 zim dollars.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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