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Land Speculation Remastered
Rank: Veteran Joined: 10/9/2006 Posts: 1,502
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It's wrong comparing Japan land bubble burst and kenya. In kenya land will continue to increase in value for many years to come. Population increase, rural-urban mig,economy growth among many factors . Taxation isn't a practical solution. The best means to curb exponential price increases is very simple. Improve infrastructure. work to prosper
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/4/2010 Posts: 1,668 Location: nairobi
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Nabwire wrote:[quote=a4architect.com]generally, govt is supposed to use tax to lay more infrastructure hence create a larger Karen so that demand doesn't outstrip supply. In Kenya since there is very little infrastructure devt by govt, demand keeps rising. It will rise until breaking point, most likely a libya/syria anarchy revolt situation. After this, kenyans will learn the importance on relying on scientific research to come up with home grown land /fiscal economy solutions. Wazuans in USA, please confirm that average price of land per acre in USA is kes 300k as described below http://www.bloomberg.com...-to-2-900-per-acre.html[/quote] To answer your question, land and housing prices in the US depend on location. I wont comment much on the article coz it talks about farming land which is entirely different from residential land, but the logic of location holds for both. Land and houses are generally very expensive in the North East ( NY, NJ, MA,) and in the West(CA, WA) but tends to be very cheap in the Midwest and the south ( GA,LA,TN,AL). Bankruptcy has also made places like Detroit very cheap, at the peak of the crisis, you could buy a house for $1, but it came with a lot of headache. Surprisingly, you can get relatively cheap land or houses nearby the expensive metropolitan areas. For example, there are very cheap houses in PA, which is 2 hours commute from NY, but the closer you get to NY, the prices shoot up astronomically. @nabwire..thanks. I wanted price per acre for both farmland and cbd land for comparison. In kenya, farmland is around kes 100k per acre and cbd land is around 250m per acre. What of usa? The article says kes 250 k per acre which sounds too low for usa. This means alot of middle class kenyans can afford farmland in usa if its true. Exactly how much is an average 1 acre plot in USA for farmland and CBD? Looks like kenyan prices could be higher. As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2011 Posts: 207 Location: humu humu
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gatoho wrote:option of buying an apartment at nyayo for 6.5m or putting the cash in a 12yr govt bond at 11% p/a, would i buy the apartment cash or go for the bond? i would go for the bond and choose to pay rent at nyayo using the interest only, being that i feel 6.5m is to much, on the other hand 6.5m would yield me 715k p/a in interest, if we were to deduct 15% witholding tax i would be left with 607k which translates into 50k monthly which would pay for the 30k rent per month a
The 12 yr bond is TAX FREE. Your analysis is incomplete..it fails to incorporate value of the property after 12 yrs.what about rental yields?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/22/2011 Posts: 1,325
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This is what I found on Google for farmland http://usda01.library.co...riLandVa-08-03-2012.pdf
Residential land is relative and changes depending on crime rate, proximity to schools, whether the neighborhood is in the inner city or suburbs, quality of school etc. Kenyan prices are definitely higher, but remember the US has many Nairobi's so demand is spread out to many different cities. I wouldn't say that Kenyans can easily afford farms in US coz farming is done commercially, unless you want to do subsistence farming, commercial farmers usually own thousands of acres. Keep in mind that these are family owned farms so they have built a loyal customer base, as a new farmer it will be next to impossible to break in. Also since farming is done on a large scale basis, you will need to invest a lot on machinery, so just because the land itself is cheaper than Kenya, doesn't mean that farming is affordable. Also the US farmer gets subsidies from the Government, as a foreigner you will not enjoy these perks and your business will be driven out. On prices, there is no exact number, as you can see on the link, different states have different prices. Though land pricing is not as volatile as Kenya.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/4/2010 Posts: 1,668 Location: nairobi
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@nabwire..thanks. We can agree that land in Kenya is more expensive than land in USA. The difference is that in USA they have land value/idle land taxation while in Kenya, the tax regime encourages land speculation. The solution to this high land appreciation can only be cured if the land commission implemments the idle land taxation as stipultated in the constitution. Yesterday i visited a site where the client bought the land , 1/4 acres in 2007 at kes 400k. The land currently is valued at 2.8m. This is represents 100% value appreciation per year. This is insane and the govt should step in and stop it because sooner or later, the land will be too expensive for the average kenyan, leading to serious anarchy. As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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Demographics is a factor in current and future land prices.Economic conditions highly influence future demographic trends.Current economics conditions are shaped and determined by people.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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Gordon Gekko wrote:What role did pirate money play in the upswing of land/property prices? If the Somali situation is normalized, what will happen? What has happened since KDF went in and cut off supply of dollars into our economy? Is it true to say that a big proportion of price rise can be attributed to Somalia? I think Kenyans' incomes have also increased rapidly in the last 10 or so years Around 2003, a building in town owned by a state corporation had like 2 vacant floors. By 2007, potential tenants were bribing caretakers to get space! Number plates for vehicles: we thought motor cycles were the cause of our fast move to the next alphabet. We removed them plus tractors...we're now in KBW... Wakenya wana pesa. In one of the towns rent was 5-6k for 1 bed 5 years back, today it's 16k what puzzles me is that salaries for most fellows are not that high to afford all these things but we still see the prices skyrocketting and land parcels being snatched while we complain about how over-priced they are!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/4/2010 Posts: 1,668 Location: nairobi
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@  ..could piracy money be the reason for this? As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/27/2010 Posts: 495 Location: Nairobi
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a4architect.com wrote:@  ..could piracy money be the reason for this? Not piracy money. This: Sh300 Billion Govt Expenses Unaccounted in 2011-12In any "normal" functioning economy, only a few people can afford to purchase Ferrari's. Even fewer can afford Bugatti's. But the high price of a Bugatti should never be able to distort the price of an NZE. Sent from my Black Nokia 3310
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2011 Posts: 207 Location: humu humu
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My worry is that a lot of investments is been channeled to property development(by every tom dick and harry) not wanting to miss on the boat, and very little to manufacturing. Perhaps that explains why small manufacturing (rare) in cosmetics,plastics,and textiles are churning out millionaires,since competition has been driven to real estate.Well real estate is less risky,offers steady returns and numerous success stories have shepherded billions of shillings into this area.. but as a country we fail to see the bigger picture. By failing to incentivise manufacturing and industry we miss out on large scale gains that could significantly reduce poverty..Iam guilty myself, since i have invested 80% of my portfolio in R.E..well,at a personal level its understandable since my R.E return > than my humble salary.
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