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Stocksmaster.............1st Quarter Strategy
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maka
#31 Posted : Tuesday, January 01, 2013 8:59:57 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
@stocksmaster is slipping (sic) on the job. my guy, you have failed to consider expected strong posting of full year PBT results by some companies read financial sector and resultant good dividend announcements such as the assured ones from KCB and HFCK that will ring fence even the fearful foreigners.

...not really we have seen more than once where the market has failed to factor in good results,there is so much uncertainity we can never know...its all about taking that chance.
possunt quia posse videntur
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mkonomtupu
#32 Posted : Tuesday, January 01, 2013 9:29:09 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
stocksmaster wrote:


The 1st quarter of 2013 will greatly be influenced by the March 2013 elections. Markets hate uncertainity especially when the choice of the next government may have radically different effects on the economy.

A peaceful Cord win should take the index to the 4800 - 5000 levels by end of 1st Half 2013. This is at least a 40-50% capital gain btw Feb to End of June with the right timing of entry.

A peaceful Jubilee win will greatly benefit the dollar. A sitting president and his deputy appearing at the ICC should at least take the dollar to 125-135 against the local currency by end of April 2013.

I will be updating this thread as the quarter progresses. Also check updates on my twitter (stocksmaster@stocksmaster79).

Happy hunting.




I'm struggling to understand your logic.d'oh! d'oh! ..Although i'm expecting election could go either way, a cord win will means effectively locking out two of the most important regions Rift valley and Central from power. That has never happened in the history of the country from the colonial times. Can you imagine what will happen if the people in those two regions realise they have no stake in government with their leaders carted off to the hague they will have a siege mentality and the first thing to do is to starve the government of revenue so expect KRA not to meet its targets and therefore new creative taxes to be pushed through a hostile parliament. The same thing happens if Jubilee wins a whole region will be locked out in a winner takes it all situation. If jubilee wins that spooks foreign investors and gives the country bad press but sanctions are unlikely.

In my view the market will continue to trade sideways what will matter is individual stock picks and a long term outlook. Happy hunting
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Cde Monomotapa
#33 Posted : Tuesday, January 01, 2013 10:34:55 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
guru267 wrote:
Ali Baba wrote:
GURU267:>>You are buying USD!! I can't believe it.If the US debt crisis is not resolved,you will still end the Zim way.Americans are buying GOLD.And land......


@Ali Baba lets me take you through economics 101..

Fiscal cliff = higher taxes & lower spending = austerity = lower deficit = stronger USD!

So if the fiscal cliff does materialize i laugh all the way to my $ account! smile

@guru you'll continue to have a REAL US economy in the tank & the US Fed busy de-basing the USD via QE Infinite* = Stagflation i.e another 'lost decade' Zim. Zim itself mulls moving from abusing the USD to aid its Renaissance post-09 by embracing the Yuan alongside re-intro the de-commisioned ZWD!
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guru267
#34 Posted : Tuesday, January 01, 2013 1:03:24 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
.
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, January 01, 2013 1:26 PM | Reason: Not specified
guru267
#35 Posted : Tuesday, January 01, 2013 1:19:05 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Ali Baba wrote:
GURU267:>>You are buying USD!! I can't believe it.If the US debt crisis is not resolved,you will still end the Zim way.Americans are buying GOLD.And land......


@Ali Baba lets me take you through economics 101..

Fiscal cliff = higher taxes & lower spending = austerity = lower deficit = stronger USD!

So if the fiscal cliff does materialize i laugh all the way to my $ account! smile

@guru you'll continue to have a REAL US economy in the tank & the US Fed busy de-basing the USD via QE Infinite* = Stagflation i.e another 'lost decade' Zim. Zim itself mulls moving from abusing the USD to aid its Renaissance post-09 by embracing the Yuan alongside re-intro the de-commisioned ZWD!


@Cde just take a look at Japan as a case study!

Japan had had two lost decades of recession and stagnation yet the yen has been relatively stable, strong and relevant all through!

We cannot analyse developed countries the same way we do the developing third world! Read also the stronger Euro after austerity implementation and yet Europe is also expecting a lost decade!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#36 Posted : Tuesday, January 01, 2013 1:57:50 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Interesting thread this. Cant wait to see how the NSE opens tomorrow. Will the Fund managers stay out or will they load in? Will the foreigners watch from the sidelines or will they participate?
We get the anwers to these and more tomorrow and the next 2 weeks.
See you tomorrow at the market placesmile
@SufficientlyP
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youcan'tstopusnow
#37 Posted : Tuesday, January 01, 2013 2:17:22 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Interesting thread this. Cant wait to see how the NSE opens tomorrow. Will the Fund managers stay out or will they load in? Will the foreigners watch from the sidelines or will they participate?
We get the anwers to these and more tomorrow and the next 2 weeks.
See you tomorrow at the market placesmile

Hehe. Watu wakipatana debe, sisi tunapatana sokosmile
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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mjuaji wa stocks
#38 Posted : Tuesday, January 01, 2013 2:30:28 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/16/2010
Posts: 672
Location: nairobi
stocksmaster wrote:
Before I begin, I will appreciate a discussion on this post devoid of political zealotry/bigotry.

My target for the 1st half 2013 is a 35% return on investment.

The 1st quarter of 2013 will greatly be influenced by the March 2013 elections. Markets hate uncertainity especially when the choice of the next government may have radically different effects on the economy.

My strategy for the 1st quarter 2013 is therefore as follows:
Jan to Mid February - I intend to hold cash. The last quarter of 2012 was a period of cashing out of the market. I anticipate a 20 percent fall in the NSE 20 share index as we approach the elections (3300 -3400). The PEV of 2007 cannot be wished away and foreign investors will play it safe.

Mid Feb - End of quarter 1: This is the period to either raid the NSE for burgains or deposit the cash in a dollar denominated account.

A peaceful Cord win should take the index to the 4800 - 5000 levels by end of 1st Half 2013. This is at least a 40-50% capital gain btw Feb to End of June with the right timing of entry.

A peaceful Jubilee win will greatly benefit the dollar. A sitting president and his deputy appearing at the ICC should at least take the dollar to 125-135 against the local currency by end of April 2013. This is a 50% capital gain with the right timing and exit strategy. In such a scenario, it will be the exit strategy that will be of most importance lest your money is trapped locally and foreign exchange preservation by the CBK becomes necessary.

I will be updating this thread as the quarter progresses. Also check updates on my twitter (stocksmaster@stocksmaster79).

Happy hunting.





@ Stock master - i salute you sir / Madam!

You performed well in our fantasy stocks and so to me you are a guru ..... roho safi.

Your opinions above are truely a look of how things will turn in 2013.

I will invest in Farming in 2013 to supply food to kenyans before coming back after the elections are over.

What is your opinion?

What is Peter Kenneth wins - what could be the likely scenerio?

I personally feel that only a jubilee win will negatively impact our economy ...

Happy 2013
God gave me the power to make wealth ... Blessed the work of my hands & enabled be A SELF MADE BILLIONAIRE ...... TO GOD THE FATHER OF MY LORD JESUS CHRIST; BE THE GLORY NOW & FOREVER MORE!
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Cde Monomotapa
#39 Posted : Tuesday, January 01, 2013 3:08:32 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
guru267 wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Ali Baba wrote:
GURU267:>>You are buying USD!! I can't believe it.If the US debt crisis is not resolved,you will still end the Zim way.Americans are buying GOLD.And land......


@Ali Baba lets me take you through economics 101..

Fiscal cliff = higher taxes & lower spending = austerity = lower deficit = stronger USD!

So if the fiscal cliff does materialize i laugh all the way to my $ account! smile

@guru you'll continue to have a REAL US economy in the tank & the US Fed busy de-basing the USD via QE Infinite* = Stagflation i.e another 'lost decade' Zim. Zim itself mulls moving from abusing the USD to aid its Renaissance post-09 by embracing the Yuan alongside re-intro the de-commisioned ZWD!


@Cde just take a look at Japan as a case study!

Japan had had two lost decades of recession and stagnation yet the yen has been relatively stable, strong and relevant all through!

We cannot analyse developed countries the same way we do the developing third world! Read also the stronger Euro after austerity implementation and yet Europe is also expecting a lost decade!

Expert cheating death but business/trade exist in mkts not vacuums & if you no longer control that (hail China) then your ccy goes obsolete too. Japan's allies, the West, have caught up to each other & like it or not, they represent the old order. P.S: Japan has been selling more adult diapers than baby of late & is about to need external borrowing away from how they've been getting by via Yen borrowing now 2X a shrinking GDP. If one steps back & looks critically, these 'developed' economies are post-menopause.
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, January 01, 2013 3:11 PM | Reason: Not specified
Cde Monomotapa
#40 Posted : Tuesday, January 01, 2013 3:15:35 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Interesting thread this. Cant wait to see how the NSE opens tomorrow. Will the Fund managers stay out or will they load in? Will the foreigners watch from the sidelines or will they participate?
We get the anwers to these and more tomorrow and the next 2 weeks.
See you tomorrow at the market placesmile

Hehe. Watu wakipatana debe, sisi tunapatana sokosmile

Alas..Capital strike! If you hear 75% tax like that French dude, you vote with your capital - Belgium pap! Woi...God protect Kenya Vision 2030!!
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