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Current economy recession and the expected 2013 recovery
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'user'
#61 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 9:10:20 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 12/3/2010
Posts: 1,141
Location: Londokwe
guru267 wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
...Decisive efforts by the Central Bank of Kenya Monetary Policy Committee to tame the exchange rate are beginning to bear fruit and market forces will naturally dictate a review of current interest rates.
By all means, the market is responding very well to all the macro economic interventions undertaken in the last quarter of the year which could see us reducing inflation to single digit levels by March.

http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/hi1prlz/-/index.html


What does the MPC have to do with anything¿¿
Doesn't anyone remember the rain that pounded in oct/nov after the ravaging drought¿¿ was that a "macro economic intervention¿¿" because to me food and energy prices stabilizing are the only reason for a slowing inflation rate...

Whether rates were raised or not was an irrelevant debate because of its negligble impact on fighting inflation¡¡

And shilling is steadily losing ground again despite the rains .went down to _~82 now heading towards 86 what has changed ?
2012 is here.Kenya is Ours.Be Part of The Peace Keeping Mission To Protect Our Motherland.Say No To Violence and Tribal Hatred .If you can read this,wewe ni mtu amesoma, usifikirie kama mtu hajaenda shule .Ni Hayo Tu
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youcan'tstopusnow
#62 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 9:17:42 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
guru267 wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
...Decisive efforts by the Central Bank of Kenya Monetary Policy Committee to tame the exchange rate are beginning to bear fruit and market forces will naturally dictate a review of current interest rates.
By all means, the market is responding very well to all the macro economic interventions undertaken in the last quarter of the year which could see us reducing inflation to single digit levels by March.

http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/hi1prlz/-/index.html


What does the MPC have to do with anything¿¿
Doesn't anyone remember the rain that pounded in oct/nov after the ravaging drought¿¿ was that a "macro economic intervention¿¿" because to me food and energy prices stabilizing are the only reason for a slowing inflation rate...

Whether rates were raised or not was an irrelevant debate because of its negligble impact on fighting inflation¡¡

Did the strengthening shilling have no impact at all on reducing energy prices? If the shilling was at 107, the fuel prices would not have decreased by as much as it did (if at all) Hata hisah would agreesmile
And whats up with your keyboard?smile
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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guru267
#63 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 9:31:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:

Did the strengthening shilling have no impact at all on reducing energy prices? If the shilling was at 107, the fuel prices would not have decreased by as much as it did (if at all) Hata hisah would agreesmile
And whats up with your keyboard?smile


If the strengthening shilling means GOK has to pay 22% on its debt, infrastructure projects stalling, and household borrowing costs ballooning like crazy then I would take the shilling at 107 anyday..

A CBR rate of 11% would have done the trick without crashing all other sectors in the economy...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Cde Monomotapa
#64 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 9:55:23 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
The fuel we are consuming now was brought in with crude @$114/barrel and USD/KES @94. Since then crude has been btwn $105-110 and USD/KES in the upper 80s. Let's wait for 15th.
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hisah
#65 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 11:54:02 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
'user' wrote:
guru267 wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
...Decisive efforts by the Central Bank of Kenya Monetary Policy Committee to tame the exchange rate are beginning to bear fruit and market forces will naturally dictate a review of current interest rates.
By all means, the market is responding very well to all the macro economic interventions undertaken in the last quarter of the year which could see us reducing inflation to single digit levels by March.

http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/hi1prlz/-/index.html


What does the MPC have to do with anything¿¿
Doesn't anyone remember the rain that pounded in oct/nov after the ravaging drought¿¿ was that a "macro economic intervention¿¿" because to me food and energy prices stabilizing are the only reason for a slowing inflation rate...

Whether rates were raised or not was an irrelevant debate because of its negligble impact on fighting inflation¡¡

And shilling is steadily losing ground again despite the rains .went down to _~82 now heading towards 86 what has changed ?

I want CBK to remove the current forex controls. In any case KES is supposed to be on free float. Then we shall see if indeed those IMF dollars CBK borrowed can stand against Mr Market. I wonder what CBK will do if by Sept inflation is still above their 9% target.

As for oil, this looks poised to cause havoc if prices continue rising. KE and a host of global nations have a large energy import bill. This will continue piling pressure on their ccys. Many CBs had to intervene last yr as their ccys took a hit esp vs $ on imported inflation esp oil.

The only way to fix this is to remove the USD oil peg & instead use a basket of ccys for oil trade.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#66 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 12:04:19 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
The fuel we are consuming now was brought in with crude @$114/barrel and USD/KES @94. Since then crude has been btwn $105-110 and USD/KES in the upper 80s. Let's wait for 15th.

I see brent & WTI all racing above the 2011 highs, not on fundies, but the stupid posturing of the west on Iran. Why use a sledge hammer to crack a nut?!

Btw anyone studied the Iranian banking system and its Central Bank? Follow the money & see why oil is going to rocket. So far the sanctions on Iran have kicked about their currency, but if oil stays up, well the sanctions are useless. The oil bourse they have also trades in euros as well as direct rubles & yuans trade. Since the oil bourse went live & sold oil in August all over sudden the Iran nuclear propaganda got back on lamestream media... Now continue with your own research & follow the money... There's always a reason for everything - action vs reaction must always balance... I hope most will get this cryptic message d'oh!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Thiong'o
#67 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 12:48:41 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/14/2011
Posts: 661
hisah wrote:
'user' wrote:
guru267 wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
...Decisive efforts by the Central Bank of Kenya Monetary Policy Committee to tame the exchange rate are beginning to bear fruit and market forces will naturally dictate a review of current interest rates.
By all means, the market is responding very well to all the macro economic interventions undertaken in the last quarter of the year which could see us reducing inflation to single digit levels by March.

http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/hi1prlz/-/index.html


What does the MPC have to do with anything¿¿
Doesn't anyone remember the rain that pounded in oct/nov after the ravaging drought¿¿ was that a "macro economic intervention¿¿" because to me food and energy prices stabilizing are the only reason for a slowing inflation rate...

Whether rates were raised or not was an irrelevant debate because of its negligble impact on fighting inflation¡¡

And shilling is steadily losing ground again despite the rains .went down to _~82 now heading towards 86 what has changed ?

I want CBK to remove the current forex controls. In any case KES is supposed to be on free float. Then we shall see if indeed those IMF dollars CBK borrowed can stand against Mr Market. I wonder what CBK will do if by Sept inflation is still above their 9% target.

As for oil, this looks poised to cause havoc if prices continue rising. KE and a host of global nations have a large energy import bill. This will continue piling pressure on their ccys. Many CBs had to intervene last yr as their ccys took a hit esp vs $ on imported inflation esp oil.

The only way to fix this is to remove the USD oil peg & instead use a basket of ccys for oil trade.


Kenya cannot rely on foreign demand to help economy

..the currency is now too strong. Kenya needs to build a broader more competitive export economy and the experience of many countries suggests that weaker currencies (for example closer to Sh100 to the dollar) rather than overly strong currencies (such as Sh85 versus the dollar) help most.

http://www.capitalfm.co....demand-to-help-economy/
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2012
#68 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 3:06:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
Thiong'o wrote:
Kenya cannot rely on foreign demand to help economy

..the currency is now too strong. Kenya needs to build a broader more competitive export economy and the experience of many countries suggests that weaker currencies (for example closer to Sh100 to the dollar) rather than overly strong currencies (such as Sh85 versus the dollar) help most.


The current rate is not sustainable and it will only hurt us if CBK insists on using force like they are doing. I say this because we only have one sure forex earner which is agricultural exports and is dependent on 'weather'. The rest, tourism, diaspora money transfer etc. are very unpredictable. The best thing would be for elections to be held in August that way the Sept-Dec tourism season can be predictable but if Dec you can be sure there'll be no tourists in Kenya.



BBI will solve it :)
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'user'
#69 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 3:20:29 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 12/3/2010
Posts: 1,141
Location: Londokwe
How comes the shilling has started to weaken as we head to 15th January? what is the major cause ama ni manipulation ndio interest rates na mafuta zipande.
2012 is here.Kenya is Ours.Be Part of The Peace Keeping Mission To Protect Our Motherland.Say No To Violence and Tribal Hatred .If you can read this,wewe ni mtu amesoma, usifikirie kama mtu hajaenda shule .Ni Hayo Tu
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