Wazua
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The long bear
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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KENYANS, brace yourselves for GOOOOOOOOD times ahead i.e. AFTER 2012! Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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erifloss wrote:Lets look at this hypothetically. After listening to Ndung'u yesterday, i started thinking.
1.If the greek PM fails the no confidence vote today it means they can't pass any austerity measures within the 12 days remaining & most definately will default & go broke leaving most European & American banks with an exposure of about $2 trillion in Greece, Portugal & Spain.
2. With the above scenario everybody is dropping Euro dominated assets for the 'weakening' dollar & going to any market as long as its not European. Now if Kenya's currency is taken as weaker to the dollar & investors are looking for economies to park their cash at, Kenya becomes a destination only if political noise goes down & the shilling stabilizes at around 95.
3. Looking at this situation you'll realize that most of these 'investors' right now don't want to park their cash in Emerging & Frontier markets with strong currencies that can be easily affected by Greece's insolvency but in markets that they can easily control the dynamics within.
As Kenya if this is played right & with most of international multinational financial institutions within fully exposed in Europe, they might or are seriously looking at Africa & who says it can't be Kenya. Stanchart has opened its regional hq here which speaks volumes & as Ndung'u said yesterday we control inflation the rest of the chips will fall in place. CBK has done a damn good job of price stabilization...
When the money boyz start opening regional hubs and dubbing Nairobi as a financial hub and the president calling for single digit lending rates, you know that the money explosion is about to launch.
When BBK and stanchart introduce mkopo wa salo again at less than 10%, buy up the stock market. When mortgage rates are lowered below 10%, go for low end real estate. Then sit tight for a serious bubble inflation aka bull market... If by then international banksters will be primary dealers (PDs) of the bond market then @guru could get her 15yr bull rally!?
Quote:To win against the casino, befriend the owners. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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hisah wrote:erifloss wrote:Lets look at this hypothetically. After listening to Ndung'u yesterday, i started thinking.
1.If the greek PM fails the no confidence vote today it means they can't pass any austerity measures within the 12 days remaining & most definately will default & go broke leaving most European & American banks with an exposure of about $2 trillion in Greece, Portugal & Spain.
2. With the above scenario everybody is dropping Euro dominated assets for the 'weakening' dollar & going to any market as long as its not European. Now if Kenya's currency is taken as weaker to the dollar & investors are looking for economies to park their cash at, Kenya becomes a destination only if political noise goes down & the shilling stabilizes at around 95.
3. Looking at this situation you'll realize that most of these 'investors' right now don't want to park their cash in Emerging & Frontier markets with strong currencies that can be easily affected by Greece's insolvency but in markets that they can easily control the dynamics within.
As Kenya if this is played right & with most of international multinational financial institutions within fully exposed in Europe, they might or are seriously looking at Africa & who says it can't be Kenya. Stanchart has opened its regional hq here which speaks volumes & as Ndung'u said yesterday we control inflation the rest of the chips will fall in place. CBK has done a damn good job of price stabilization...
When the money boyz start opening regional hubs and dubbing Nairobi as a financial hub and the president calling for single digit lending rates, you know that the money explosion is about to launch.
When BBK and stanchart introduce mkopo wa salo again at less than 10%, buy up the stock market. When mortgage rates are lowered below 10%, go for low end real estate. Then sit tight for a serious bubble inflation aka bull market... If by then international banksters will be primary dealers (PDs) of the bond market then @guru could get her 15yr bull rally!?
Quote:To win against the casino, befriend the owners. These to posts have been put together with great thought. Kudos! @hisah.. I dig the quote!
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/5/2010 Posts: 335 Location: Nairobi
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...bears make money... I am not planning on selling anything else this year... I hate that USD is @90, oil, infaltion, rain, etc. ... but generally the fundamentals don't look as grim, I expect most companies to still grow profits... no? I will buy in small bits all the way to the floor (if thats where we are going)... na ikipanda bado tunanunua kidogokidogo... bei ya mkate ikishuka, furahia unless you are a baker! @deal... "KCB has underperformed market for 4yrs"... allow me to assume that since the price has not risen dramatically, then it is cheap. And i should buy?? (since it has remained profitable and will be more so) I also think that any cash I hold will do much worse than stocks so I buy... "I'd rather be lucky than clever... every time!" - ME
"The problem is not what we don't know... it's what we know for sure that just ain't!" - MARK TWAIN
"Space we can recover... time never!" - NAPOLEON BONAPARTE
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/21/2010 Posts: 514 Location: Nairobi
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A little breather, the Greek govt has won the no confidence vote by 155 out of 298. They've bought some time though most analysts think Greek's fall is inevitable but at least people now have time to run. 'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 3/29/2011 Posts: 56 Location: Kenya
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Read up on how the current high inflation will affect the Nairobi Stock Exchange LINK: LIKELY IMAPACT OF HIGH INFLATION ON THE NSE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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When analysts and the media are saying Bear Bear Bear...its the time to Buy....the NSE is oversold and Kenyan stocks are at their cheapest in the last 2 years so be a Contrarian.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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the deal wrote:When analysts and the media are saying Bear Bear Bear...its the time to Buy....the NSE is oversold and Kenyan stocks are at their cheapest in the last 2 years so be a Contrarian. Confessions of a Media man? Lol!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,919 Location: nairobi
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@ deal @cde.. What do u have to say for yourselves on KNRE. I told u it will shake downwards. i appear on the IM of 2007 as one of the main shareholders but now I have freed myself of that cursed firm. Will not buy it even at KES 8. Good riddance.
COOP ABP 15.85; IMH ABP 35.55; KQ ABP 5.75; MTN ABP 5.20
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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obiero wrote:@ deal @cde.. What do u have to say for yourselves on KNRE. I told u it will shake downwards. i appear on the IM of 2007 as one of the main shareholders but now I have freed myself of that cursed firm. Will not buy it even at KES 8. Good riddance. I adviced u to sell & relax. That's all.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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obiero wrote:@ deal @cde.. What do u have to say for yourselves on KNRE. I told u it will shake downwards. i appear on the IM of 2007 as one of the main shareholders but now I have freed myself of that cursed firm. Will not buy it even at KES 8. Good riddance. Hehehe Obiero the Kenya Re top 10 shareholder...i sold on announcement day...i went into Uchumi...the rest is history....
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/25/2011 Posts: 946
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the deal wrote:When analysts and the media are saying Bear Bear Bear...its the time to Buy....the NSE is oversold and Kenyan stocks are at their cheapest in the last 2 years so be a Contrarian. in ur wise judgement do you expect more selling as we near elections in possibly 2011 ?????
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/25/2011 Posts: 946
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obiero wrote:@ deal @cde.. What do u have to say for yourselves on KNRE. I told u it will shake downwards. i appear on the IM of 2007 as one of the main shareholders but now I have freed myself of that cursed firm. Will not buy it even at KES 8. Good riddance. bargain hunters will have held the price fall and can usually result in a rally and allowed you to get out maybe even at break even.i have the opinion you took an unnecessary loss..Why the rush to sell. ??????? i dnt think you knew what you were doing buying into it..Just my opinion ...
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/5/2010 Posts: 335 Location: Nairobi
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Genghis Khan wrote:...bears make money...
I am not planning on selling anything else this year...
I hate that USD is @90, oil, infaltion, rain, etc. ... but generally the fundamentals don't look as grim, I expect most companies to still grow profits... no?
I will buy in small bits all the way to the floor (if thats where we are going)... na ikipanda bado tunanunua kidogokidogo... bei ya mkate ikishuka, furahia unless you are a baker!
@deal... "KCB has underperformed market for 4yrs"... allow me to assume that since the price has not risen dramatically, then it is cheap. And i should buy?? (since it has remained profitable and will be more so)
I also think that any cash I hold will do much worse than stocks so I buy... the deal wrote:When analysts and the media are saying Bear Bear Bear...its the time to Buy....the NSE is oversold and Kenyan stocks are at their cheapest in the last 2 years so be a Contrarian. The wisdom of the brave! No guts... no glory! "I'd rather be lucky than clever... every time!" - ME
"The problem is not what we don't know... it's what we know for sure that just ain't!" - MARK TWAIN
"Space we can recover... time never!" - NAPOLEON BONAPARTE
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/25/2011 Posts: 946
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bear is here to stay.lol...heheheh...and those buying the fattened cow thats britak better know what they are going...
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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What is common theme among the following. Recent heavy volumes on Equity Bank; Britak/TC IPOs? Anchor shareholders are the same and are of course very good buddies of a famous Muthaiga resident. It tells you they are nervous about the future and want out of the NSE or under the radar. More importantly, strategy may go awry... I expect to see similar volumes at HFCK, Co-op, Express, EA Cables to mention but a few. Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/27/2008 Posts: 3,760
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Mainat wrote:What is common theme among the following. Recent heavy volumes on Equity Bank; Britak/TC IPOs? Anchor shareholders are the same and are of course very good buddies of a famous Muthaiga resident.
It tells you they are nervous about the future and want out of the NSE or under the radar.
More importantly, strategy may go awry...
I expect to see similar volumes at HFCK, Co-op, Express, EA Cables to mention but a few. Agreed, but why Coop?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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Genghis Khan wrote:Genghis Khan wrote:...bears make money...
I am not planning on selling anything else this year...
I hate that USD is @90, oil, infaltion, rain, etc. ... but generally the fundamentals don't look as grim, I expect most companies to still grow profits... no?
I will buy in small bits all the way to the floor (if thats where we are going)... na ikipanda bado tunanunua kidogokidogo... bei ya mkate ikishuka, furahia unless you are a baker!
@deal... "KCB has underperformed market for 4yrs"... allow me to assume that since the price has not risen dramatically, then it is cheap. And i should buy?? (since it has remained profitable and will be more so)
I also think that any cash I hold will do much worse than stocks so I buy... the deal wrote:When analysts and the media are saying Bear Bear Bear...its the time to Buy....the NSE is oversold and Kenyan stocks are at their cheapest in the last 2 years so be a Contrarian. The wisdom of the brave! No guts... no glory! With the ICC Trials of Govt friendly politicians looming as well as the actual likely delayed 2012 General Election, foreigners may remain net sellers whilst Wanjiku is inflation battered...as such NSE equity prices could go lower. Why not stick it out bit longer and buy even lower? No guarantees but highly likely...at times like this, I'd hope REITS come in sooner!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604
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this for sure is bear market. If at all Cargen can be the highest gainer with less than 5%.... African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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If you look at this article of mine it takes you into the future http://contrarianinvesti...inancial-crisis-of.html
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