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Could Safaricom issue a profit warning?
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,215 Location: Nairobi
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@muchknow - The issue [as an investor] is not past earnings [though a guide in normal circumstances] but the future... The 'price wars' started in Sep 2010 so I expect Safaricom's VOICE revenue to decline [on-net calls from 8/- to 3/- currently]. Also add the definite loss of some customers who called off-net [off-net 12/- to 4/-]. Where I expect Safaricom to make up 'losses' is Data [huge bump] & M-Pesa [growing like crazy]... As for voice... It is becoming a commodity. Cheapest provider [with a good nationwide footprint] will probably expand its base... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/6/2008 Posts: 3,554
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@vvs if you read the CCK report through, you will understand that the ARPU of 362 takes into account the then prevailing price of 3/- per minute for airtel and 2/- to 5 for safaricom, it was compiled end of September and 3/- started end of August, my analysis if fairly factual and representative. I have used earlier report to assist in making fairly accurate current projections. If you check historically also, the industry ARPU is always lower than safcoms, you can also use the MINUTES OF USE for when the prices were 8/- (vuka introduced Sep 2008)Safcom ARPU fell from 616 to 475 a major dip but there was a sharp rise in voice revenue because of MINUTES OF USE of which the report shows a sharp rise in, voice ARPU is not declining as fast(a reason why there is congestion) Meru Holiness
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/6/2008 Posts: 3,554
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Anyway lets wait for CCK Q2 report and we can make a conclusion, but if you want to bet on it projecting revenue above 70bilion (ARPU*Customer base*12), am in, and i don't ruka bets,1K. Meru Holiness
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,215 Location: Nairobi
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@muchknow - I expect Safaricom might be OK [similar to FY 2009-10] as far as revenues are concerned [Data, Sales of goods, M-Pesa]... but I fear the profits in 2H will suffer... Even more in 2010-11... Data will be the 'saving grace' [SMS are included in data but I think the number of 'regular' SMS sent through/by Safaricom have stagnated]... Another HUGE income stream [lumped with SMS above] will be the SMS lotteries e.g. 6969 where Safaricom is far ahead of the rest... The profits will be HUGE... In 2010-11 SMS lotteries will play a smaller part [if the ban stays]. The SMS costs have dropped significantly to match Airtel. Calling costs/prices are also down. Minutes will be up but there is a loss of customers to Airtel [maybe Yu & Orange]. I like Safaricom as an investment. Just not at 4.30 but I would look at it seriously at 3.50 or lower... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/28/2009 Posts: 353 Location: Cloud
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@ for me the maths just too complexcated! sold of kila kitu @ 4.35, reflecting a loss of 15% brokers cut notwithsatanding. wud rather stick to my kasacco that returned 9.2% dividends for 2010. someone wake me up when we hit IPO price again...hopefully before 2012. "For i am the master and the captain of my fate"
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Grapevine has it that mtn could close in on yu soon. Stil waiting for more confirmation... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/18/2008 Posts: 796
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You can mark my words on one issue... if we go down this path, ALL operators are not going to be willing to be as philanthropic as they've been in the past.. If you live in an area where people don't call much or you're the only one using a specific operator's line, expect BTSs to switched off in that area..Just like the StanCharts moved out of the smaller towns. However, unlike banks who basically just need a building and a few tellers, it takes billions to rebuild telco infrastructure.
as for the guy talking about sharing of BTSs, that has always been the case..
On this one, Mr. PM has shown that indeed he's only fit to run a 'fis' market.
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/6/2009 Posts: 108 Location: nairobi
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@mozernut,if this guyz share Base stations,how come in my hood there are three towers within a 100 meters. my guess is that we may never agree on safcom, since some of you are shareholders while some of us are consumers.... and by the way,kwani wat is wrong with a fis market? if you aint livin on the edge,you are taking too much space....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/6/2008 Posts: 3,554
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@bepari, your conclusion that the three base stations belong to three different firms is a bit amusing  , no prize for guessing who has been investing in extra base stations. In yesterdays cutting edge, some lady was complaining how she cant get airtel at some two streets in town!!! cbd!!! hope that can add a bit of sophistication to the fis market Meru Holiness
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/27/2010 Posts: 324 Location: nrb
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thought/assumed safcon was one of best employers-salarythingy. PM said peanuts! is that really thecase?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,215 Location: Nairobi
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Philanthropy??? Nonsense! The operators are in it for the money! As for 'philanthropy' the new Universal Access Fee will skim off the top to help scam us even more! As technology improves, all areas will be covered. If an area is covered by Safaricom & not Airtel then people in that area will buy Safaricom lines... They can still call Airtel using Safaricom OR folks with Airtel can get through by calling Safaricom!!! There is new technology on the way that will make huge towers unnecessary... It might take 3-5 years but it is coming... Also our phones have become more powerful i.e. they can detect/use weaker signals unlike in the past... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: User Joined: 5/9/2010 Posts: 1,418 Location: Nai
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A Rasta man walks into a bank carrying a bag of weed nd hands it over 2 da cashier,SHOCKED! The cashier asks: wats dis 4? The Rasta replied: am here 2 open a JOINT account. Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/31/2007 Posts: 341
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alikujia wrote:thought/assumed safcon was one of best employers-salarythingy. PM said peanuts! is that really thecase? I think that remark by RAO that safcom staff are paid peanuts was unnecessary and totally uncalled for. I mean who wouldn't ask for a payrise if given a chance. I don't think any safcom staff has ever petitioned RAO regarding poor pay. No wonder this guy has so many enemies, he has this uncanny habit of stepping on every toe he comes across. He has just added 3000 plus safcom employees to his list of haters...
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/8/2009 Posts: 975 Location: Nairobi
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chris79 wrote:alikujia wrote:thought/assumed safcon was one of best employers-salarythingy. PM said peanuts! is that really thecase? I think that remark by RAO that safcom staff are paid peanuts was unnecessary and totally uncalled for. I mean who wouldn't ask for a payrise if given a chance. I don't think any safcom staff has ever petitioned RAO regarding poor pay. No wonder this guy has so many enemies, he has this uncanny habit of stepping on every toe he comes across. He has just added 3000 plus safcom employees to his list of haters... @Chris Very correct. If only he knew how much some of the chiefs/HODs/engineers are paid, he would shut up. Let us agree to blame his advisors, typical kenya style.  You will know that you have arrived when money and time are not mutually exclusive "events" in you life!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/9/2010 Posts: 894 Location: Nairobi
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chris79 wrote:alikujia wrote:thought/assumed safcon was one of best employers-salarythingy. PM said peanuts! is that really thecase? I think that remark by RAO that safcom staff are paid peanuts was unnecessary and totally uncalled for. I mean who wouldn't ask for a payrise if given a chance. I don't think any safcom staff has ever petitioned RAO regarding poor pay. No wonder this guy has so many enemies, he has this uncanny habit of stepping on every toe he comes across. He has just added 3000 plus safcom employees to his list of haters... i agree with u,that was uncalled 4. however money is never enough and it diffies the utile theory. my take is that some unrealistic person advised rao and he was too eager to say something that will make him feel relevant(i assume that is what politics is all about) Don't wait for the Last Judgment. It happens every day. ~Albert Camus, The Fall, 1956
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,765 Location: nairobi
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Safcom employees, even the lower cadre ones are not paid peanuts. i read smwhere that sometimes waste from the anal area seeps into the brain. This is what must have happened to RAO, since what he uttered was BS!
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; IMH 5,000 ABP 35.55; KQ 604,200 ABP 6.96; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Rank: User Joined: 5/9/2010 Posts: 1,418 Location: Nai
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A man goes to a shrink and says, 'Doctor, my wife is unfaithful to me. Every evening she goes to Larry's bar and picks up men. She goes with anybody who asks her! I'm going crazy.. What should I do?' 'Relax,' says the Doctor, 'take a deep breath and calm down. Now, tell me, exactly where is Larry's bar?' Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,215 Location: Nairobi
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Now Orange offers 1/- (on-net) phone calls... So where does that leave Safaricom? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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VituVingiSana wrote:Now Orange offers 1/- (on-net) phone calls... So where does that leave Safaricom? With the numbers
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