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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@mnandii, SPT and sparkly check out this weekly FTSE NSE 15 chart! Going into the airpocket zone.... We have acres to fall!! Support at 187 has been taken out with force.  From the NSE20 peak at 5499 to date 4171 the index has shed 24.14%. From the year open at 5117 to date the index is down 18.48% Final chance for the bulls to hold the fort by defending the 4000 level. The long term trendline from the GFC low (2360) currently rests around that 4000 level. If that breaks down it'll be a very nasty thing for the bulls. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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hisah wrote:@mnandii, SPT and sparkly check out this weekly FTSE NSE 15 chart! Going into the airpocket zone.... We have acres to fall!! Support at 187 has been taken out with force. From the NSE20 peak at 5499 to date 4171 the index has shed 24.14%. From the year open at 5117 to date the index is down 18.48% Final chance for the bulls to hold the fort by defending the 4000 level. The long term trendline from the GFC low (2360) currently rests around that 4000 level. If that breaks down it'll be a very nasty thing for the bulls. Also watching Safaricom. @hisah you called this less than a month ago http://m.wazua.co.ke/for...&m=677606#post677606.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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snipermnoma wrote:[quote=hisah]@mnandii, SPT and sparkly check out this weekly FTSE NSE 15 chart! Going into the airpocket zone.... We have acres to fall!! Support at 187 has been taken out with force. From the NSE20 peak at 5499 to date 4171 the index has shed 24.14%. From the year open at 5117 to date the index is down 18.48% Final chance for the bulls to hold the fort by defending the 4000 level. The long term trendline from the GFC low (2360) currently rests around that 4000 level. If that breaks down it'll be a very nasty thing for the bulls. Also watching Safaricom. @hisah you called this less than a month ago http://m.wazua.co.ke/for...mp;m=677606#post677606.[/quote] 120-180 looks like a good zone for trading the range. @Hisah are you going to indulge in trading the oscillators? I might be tempted to commit 20-25% of my portfolio to active trading. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/24/2008 Posts: 46 Location: Embu
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Given that most of the companies will report lower earnings in 2016 and a gook chunk of them will be in loss making territory, isn't it time to call a spade a spade---- The economic recession is here!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2011 Posts: 264 Location: Nairobi
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Fudge!Fudge!Fudge!Fudge!Fudge!
Today's top losers list is just the worst.
Even the stalwarts (utility companies that provide basic service - KPLC, KENGEN, UNGA)are losing grip. This shows that investors expect Kenyans to seriously cut their spending budgets going forward. (Which is true because even I myself have been buying less data bundles for my phone)
And the faintest glimmer of sun shine is not till 2017 (or 2018 if election fever catches)
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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NSE 20 closes at 4080.Will 4000 hold tomorrow?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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cnn wrote: NSE 20 closes at 4080.Will 4000 hold tomorrow?  Critical level this one. It has to hold otherwise the bulls will get a very rough shaving. Scoping today's mpesa bank intraday behaviour we may find a floor. The price leaked all the way down to 12.60 and by afternoon had been pushed back above previous close @13.45. At end of day the high was 14.50. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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sparkly wrote:snipermnoma wrote:hisah wrote:@mnandii, SPT and sparkly check out this weekly FTSE NSE 15 chart! Going into the airpocket zone.... We have acres to fall!! Support at 187 has been taken out with force. From the NSE20 peak at 5499 to date 4171 the index has shed 24.14%. From the year open at 5117 to date the index is down 18.48% Final chance for the bulls to hold the fort by defending the 4000 level. The long term trendline from the GFC low (2360) currently rests around that 4000 level. If that breaks down it'll be a very nasty thing for the bulls. Also watching Safaricom. @hisah you called this less than a month ago http://m.wazua.co.ke/for...mp;m=677606#post677606. 120-180 looks like a good zone for trading the range. @Hisah are you going to indulge in trading the oscillators? I might be tempted to commit 20-25% of my portfolio to active trading. @sparkly, which oscillators are you scoping?$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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I can see parliament was very busy today with many financial related bills getting ironed out. CGT, interest rate cap and 5B core capital rule. MPs throw out Sh5bn core capital ruleFeels like we're due for a bottom to start developing. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:I can see parliament was very busy today with many financial related bills getting ironed out. CGT, interest rate cap and 5B core capital rule. MPs throw out Sh5bn core capital ruleFeels like we're due for a bottom to start developing. Is this what you were saying about watching the CB? Have they seen the consequences of their actions in red? The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:I can see parliament was very busy today with many financial related bills getting ironed out. CGT, interest rate cap and 5B core capital rule. MPs throw out Sh5bn core capital ruleFeels like we're due for a bottom to start developing. Is this what you were saying about watching the CB? Have they seen the consequences of their actions in red? The CB has been against the core capital rule as well as the interest rate cap. The CB has also stopped fx interventions, shut down a dead bank and is also willing to disagree with treasury (banking core capital nonsense). The CB has also relaxed cash reserve ratio (CRR) for banks and this has swiftly deflated the interbank rate from crisis levels.
I prefer CBs that are willing to disagree with treasury when necessary. Next the CB will engage on liquidity stimulus by slashing rates as they realize recession is in town. The rate hike pause is good for now as long as they maintain a level head about the Usd fx reality.
But apart from a level headed CB, one also needs to factor the local market mood as well as the global mood (FTSE's mood in NSE's case).
Btw ADSS is overpriced in NSE KE. Trading at 6.00 while in London its price when converted to KES should be around 1.60. That's a very huge spread between NSE and LSE price levels 
@mnandii, the FTSE NSE15 weekly chart looks ripe for one more flash down then a huge rebound.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Dyer predicts shilling to hit 110 by Dec on market forces, imports Quote:The Kenya shilling could hit 110 units to the dollar by year-end in view of the speculative market tendencies and a rising current account deficit, an investment bank says.
Analysts at Dyer & Blair say in a report that a bear trend in the value of the shilling could push it to between Sh105 and Sh110 to the greenback. Already, some of the foreign exchange bureaus are selling the US currency at Sh105.
The investment bankers, concerned about the foreign investors in the stock market, say the accelerated imports for infrastructure development are only likely to push the shilling further down. A weaker shilling enables investors to buy more shares, but leads to lower returns when they sell on exit.
linkInteresting, but I don't see it happening. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Mpesa bank bulls unrelenting to let support levels cave in everytime they are tested. Line in the sand is 11.50. That is the critical level that must hold otherwise the bulls will be taken to the cleaners. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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hisah wrote:Mpesa bank bulls unrelenting to let support levels cave in everytime they are tested. Line in the sand is 11.50. That is the critical level that must hold otherwise the bulls will be taken to the cleaners. It's trading ex dividend next week...i bet 4000 will cave in then...the bears are too strong...small rally followed by a sharp sell off has been the trend this year...we got hammered this week...a relief rally is welcome from this oversold levels...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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the deal wrote:hisah wrote:Mpesa bank bulls unrelenting to let support levels cave in everytime they are tested. Line in the sand is 11.50. That is the critical level that must hold otherwise the bulls will be taken to the cleaners. It's trading ex dividend next week...i bet 4000 will cave in then...the bears are too strong...small rally followed by a sharp sell off has been the trend this year...we got hammered this week...a relief rally is welcome from this oversold levels... Next Friday is when the bulls will know their fate in this counter once it goes exdiv. If that 11.50 peg doesn't hold, NSE20 will slice through 3900.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:@mnandii, SPT and sparkly check out this weekly FTSE NSE 15 chart! Going into the airpocket zone.... We have acres to fall!! Support at 187 has been taken out with force. From the NSE20 peak at 5499 to date 4171 the index has shed 24.14%. From the year open at 5117 to date the index is down 18.48% Final chance for the bulls to hold the fort by defending the 4000 level. The long term trendline from the GFC low (2360) currently rests around that 4000 level. If that breaks down it'll be a very nasty thing for the bulls. Very interesting. NSE 20 will always trail FTSE NSE 15 on the haircuts. September 4th will see the remaining Mpesa bulls cave in and with the price, will go the 4,000 support level. Remember China's PPT have been selling USTs to support the bearish CNY to sub 6.4 and propping up the Stock market to fool the masses ahead of the WW11 Victory parade on September 3rd. So we have a double whammy kind of situation the NSE20 bulls will have to contend with from Sept 4th. Oh and that taper(sorry FED rate) story will gain more ground in September even as it will emerge the FEDs hand are tied seeing the chings are deep into UST selling(other EMs eg Malaysia could be quietly doing the same) that will have an impact of raising the yields,and affect the mortgage market negatively. Yellen and her team could be very well considering a Q4 option while fooling mainstreet about a rate hike  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@SPT, if Q4 is launched. Wow! The equity bulls will furiously gore the bears currently having a field day. That would create one serious rip rally kill many short sellers in one day! That short covering is what would make that rally a spectacular parabolic. FTSE KE NSE15 daily chart is attempting a reversal as per today's close posting a 3.59% gain powered by mpesa bank,equity, EABL and KCB counters. Closed @181.58 from 175.28. Will it hold when mpesa bank goes exdiv next week? $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:@SPT, if Q4 is launched. Wow! The equity bulls will furiously gore the bears currently having a field day. That would create one serious rip rally kill many short sellers in one day! That short covering is what would make that rally a spectacular parabolic.
FTSE KE NSE15 daily chart is attempting a reversal as per today's close posting a 3.59% gain powered by mpesa bank,equity, EABL and KCB counters. Closed @181.58 from 175.28. Will it hold when mpesa bank goes exdiv next week? I wish they do a Q4.USD bulls will be slaughtered properly . I'd be long Euro and Yen for a quick pip . EM and FM currencies and Equities will rally hard . Christmas will have come early  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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QE4 is definitely on the cards and it is a question of when and not if it will happen. This scheme never works and Japan is a good case study... from numerous quantitative easing programs to abenomics, the economy is more or less flat. It gets worse when you are taking on more debt to finance QE while facing decreasing marginal returns from the respective investments. Throw in the current fx climate and you are in for a serious roasting. Home ownership % are declining on the back of a zero fed rate. Thats a very weak mortgage market and any rate hike however miniscule would crash it. It is not much different/far off its European counterparts on a negative interest regime. However, I think before the Fed resorts to QE they might be all over place confusing even themselves. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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lochaz-index wrote:
QE4 is definitely on the cards and it is a question of when and not if it will happen. This scheme never works and Japan is a good case study... from numerous quantitative easing programs to abenomics, the economy is more or less flat. It gets worse when you are taking on more debt to finance QE while facing decreasing marginal returns from the respective investments. Throw in the current fx climate and you are in for a serious roasting.
Home ownership % are declining on the back of a zero fed rate. Thats a very weak mortgage market and any rate hike however miniscule would crash it. It is not much different/far off its European counterparts on a negative interest regime.
However, I think before the Fed resorts to QE they might be all over place confusing even themselves.
Funny how the markets would look to FED for direction during QE days . Now, it's the other way round. @SufficientlyP
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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