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Kenya Economy Watch
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Mainat
#761 Posted : Wednesday, July 09, 2014 6:28:37 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Interesting that CBK left rate at 8.5%...Reminds me of the 2011 when CBK was perpetually behind the curve.

The KBRR rate at 9.13% is a great win for the lobbying skills of the bankers. I don't expect any changes in loan interest rates. At least not in the short-term.
Its very easy to explain why you would charge a customer 6% higher than the KBRR since you can add on all the risks that you face in Kenya as a lender...
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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mnandii
#762 Posted : Wednesday, July 09, 2014 7:23:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Mainat wrote:
Interesting that CBK left rate at 8.5%...Reminds me of the 2011 when CBK was perpetually behind the curve.

The KBRR rate at 9.13% is a great win for the lobbying skills of the bankers. I don't expect any changes in loan interest rates. At least not in the short-term.
Its very easy to explain why you would charge a customer 6% higher than the KBRR since you can add on all the risks that you face in Kenya as a lender...

Agreed.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#763 Posted : Wednesday, July 09, 2014 7:26:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Watching the DOW keenly.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mwekez@ji
#764 Posted : Friday, July 11, 2014 11:24:59 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Increase in Diaspora Remittances for May 2014 Applause

https://centralbank.go.ke/images...ttances_for_May_2014.pdf
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murchr
#765 Posted : Friday, July 11, 2014 3:45:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
mwekez@ji wrote:
Increase in Diaspora Remittances for May 2014 Applause

https://centralbank.go.ke/images...ttances_for_May_2014.pdf


Its been a while mweke...
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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mwekez@ji
#766 Posted : Friday, July 11, 2014 4:13:03 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
murchr wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Increase in Diaspora Remittances for May 2014 Applause

https://centralbank.go.ke/images...ttances_for_May_2014.pdf


Its been a while mweke...


Niko. Only at two counters ...
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murchr
#767 Posted : Friday, July 11, 2014 4:46:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
mwekez@ji wrote:
murchr wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Increase in Diaspora Remittances for May 2014 Applause

https://centralbank.go.ke/images...ttances_for_May_2014.pdf


Its been a while mweke...


Niko. Only at two counters ...


KK and?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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mwekez@ji
#768 Posted : Friday, July 11, 2014 5:01:59 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
murchr wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
murchr wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Increase in Diaspora Remittances for May 2014 Applause

https://centralbank.go.ke/images...ttances_for_May_2014.pdf


Its been a while mweke...


Niko. Only at two counters ...


KK and?


KPLC
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murchr
#769 Posted : Friday, July 11, 2014 5:45:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
mwekez@ji wrote:
murchr wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
murchr wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Increase in Diaspora Remittances for May 2014 Applause

https://centralbank.go.ke/images...ttances_for_May_2014.pdf


Its been a while mweke...


Niko. Only at two counters ...


KK and?


KPLC


Positioning eh! I only wish NOCK would list
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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mwekez@ji
#770 Posted : Saturday, July 12, 2014 11:33:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
murchr wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
murchr wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
murchr wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Increase in Diaspora Remittances for May 2014 Applause

https://centralbank.go.ke/images...ttances_for_May_2014.pdf


Its been a while mweke...


Niko. Only at two counters ...


KK and?


KPLC


Positioning eh! I only wish NOCK would list
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Boris Boyka
#771 Posted : Saturday, July 12, 2014 12:29:09 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
mwekez@ji wrote:
murchr wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
murchr wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
murchr wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Increase in Diaspora Remittances for May 2014 Applause

https://centralbank.go.ke/images...ttances_for_May_2014.pdf


Its been a while mweke...


Niko. Only at two counters ...


KK and?


KPLC


Positioning eh! I only wish NOCK would list


Me and @ mweke in same buses. though I travel in others.
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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murchr
#772 Posted : Saturday, July 12, 2014 7:00:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
The country’s Gross National Income per capita increased for the fifth straight year, fresh World Bank data show, but still falls short of the middle-income economy band.

The bank’s data show Kenya had a GNI per capita of $930 (Sh81,635) last year, and has classified it as a ‘low-income’ country.

Kenya had a GNI per capita of $870 (Sh76,369) in 2012, $820 (Sh71,790) in 2011, $800 (Sh70,224) in 2010 and $780 (Sh68,468) in 2009, according to the World Bank data.

Neighbouring South Sudan is the only Eastern Africa country in the middle-income band, having been reclassified as a ‘lower middle-income’ economy.

- See more at: http://www.the-star.co.k...wth#sthash.MIvYFMy8.dpuf
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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hisah
#773 Posted : Monday, July 28, 2014 12:02:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Inflation trend courtesy of KNBS
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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dunkang
#774 Posted : Monday, July 28, 2014 12:53:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
mwekez@ji wrote:
Increase in Diaspora Remittances for May 2014 Applause

https://centralbank.go.ke/images...ttances_for_May_2014.pdf


Interesting
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

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kasibitta
#775 Posted : Monday, July 28, 2014 1:03:31 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/7/2014
Posts: 155
@hisah.thanks for the inflation trend above. helps me to relook and consider my investments option or how i manage my cash.At approx 7.5% inflation rate in May 2014, to be able to make any cash investment returns have to be higher
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mnandii
#776 Posted : Monday, July 28, 2014 3:04:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Does our Kenyan Central Bank hold Gold reserves? How much? Physical or paper?
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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hisah
#777 Posted : Monday, July 28, 2014 5:48:41 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Ticking inflation with an econ slump is a funky mix that will mess up equities soon.

- GDP Q1 2014 4.1% vs 5.2% in Q1 2013
- Inflation above 7%
- USDKES floating up and stubbornly stuck above 85/-
- Manufacturing will also slow down as the econ is in a slump
- Retailers already posting reduced sales revenue (uchumi etc)
- Agri is already facing headwinds
- Tourism - no comment - http://tinyurl.com/maunkbm
- Banks continue confounding everyone with profits yet NPLs are also bulging...

Now let's look at KE econ like a local kiosk.

- So where will KES get the strength to be mascular vs USD et al?
- How will GDP scale above 5% for 2014 with major econ sectors already on the back foot?
- How will equities maintain lofty values and saucy dividends with declining/flat profits due the ongoing econ slump?
- How will banks continue posting fatty profits in this macro environment?

Know that's just a simple way of looking at the econ and trying to see how the market weather is likely to play out.

**Pick your cherries carefully**
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mwekez@ji
#778 Posted : Wednesday, July 30, 2014 7:49:34 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Fitch Ratings says Kenya can still borrow more cash
http://www.businessdailyafrica....6/-/2idwj2z/-/index.html
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hisah
#779 Posted : Wednesday, July 30, 2014 3:14:55 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
CBK Q2 2014 banking report shows profits are still on the rise for banks. However, the NPLs have refused to deflate. Out of the 11 econ sectors, 8 continue to post rising NPLs. Quite sad to see that those among the struggling sectors are trade, manufacturing, tourism, transport and household while inflation is on the rise. Only agri and mining didn't post increased NPLs.

How will banks continue posting double digit profits in this environment? And so I continue avoiding the banking counters...

http://tinyurl.com/lgdv96a
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mnandii
#780 Posted : Wednesday, July 30, 2014 7:34:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
hisah wrote:
CBK Q2 2014 banking report shows profits are still on the rise for banks. However, the NPLs have refused to deflate. Out of the 11 econ sectors, 8 continue to post rising NPLs. Quite sad to see that those among the struggling sectors are trade, manufacturing, tourism, transport and household while inflation is on the rise. Only agri and mining didn't post increased NPLs.

How will banks continue posting double digit profits in this environment? And so I continue avoiding the banking counters...

http://tinyurl.com/lgdv96a


Quite a concern for Kenya.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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