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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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kenyainvestor wrote:Seems today is KCB's turn to experience a volume spike. 3.65 Million shares traded so far WOW . call this entry volume ...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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But KCB has been doing volumes this year. What's the difference now? 
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Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:But KCB has been doing volumes this year. What's the difference now? what the heck are you talking about ????????? KCB for months on end has been doing a couple of a hundred thousand shares...Now it has spike to over 3m today. and you dont see anything an usual ...????? hebu consult your charts .... watu kama nyinyi ndio mna wachcangwa ...lol
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@hisah. Finally your very mean hand has been extended for buying. Did u start buying saf cum div? Are you trading or investing? What is your target in terms of time and or price? Sorry to play 21 questions, but saf is looking too juicy to ignore. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:@hisah. Finally your very mean hand has been extended for buying. Did u start buying saf cum div? Are you trading or investing? What is your target in terms of time and or price? Sorry to play 21 questions, but saf is looking too juicy to ignore. I just need 20% gains - 3.50 - 3.70 is the target for 3-4 weeks. This bounce still doesnt feel solid for greedy gains.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:@hisah. Finally your very mean hand has been extended for buying. Did u start buying saf cum div? Are you trading or investing? What is your target in terms of time and or price? Sorry to play 21 questions, but saf is looking too juicy to ignore. I just need 20% gains - 3.50 - 3.70 is the target for 3-4 weeks. This bounce still doesnt feel solid for greedy gains. Nice, really nice. i dont want the elephent to leave me too. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Rally without legs Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/5/2010 Posts: 335 Location: Nairobi
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Genghis Capital Daily Market Note - 13th September 2011 wrote:
The NSE rose for the second consecutive day to close above the 3,400 points mark for the first time since 1st September 2011. In what appears to be a case of investors buying bargain stocks both volumes traded and equity turnover rose significantly in today’s trading. This could be what investors have been looking for – market direction in the face of uncertainty and a lot of speculation on the possible direction of stocks. Over the last few weeks our trading ideas have been about buying on stock dips, value investing and discouraging market timing. Reversal? I'm still trying to get a clearer signal (and also to guess the next resitance level) before i jump into the frigid waters... Also low on cash... to borrow or not to borrow "I'd rather be lucky than clever... every time!" - ME
"The problem is not what we don't know... it's what we know for sure that just ain't!" - MARK TWAIN
"Space we can recover... time never!" - NAPOLEON BONAPARTE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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The recovery continues? Up 19.95 points to 3,464.65 GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:The recovery continues? Up 19.95 points to 3,464.65 you seem to be far behind ....i have already spotted a bottom on the index ..A rocovery should be in place ..
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:3357 is the pin off on the rebound. Let's us see how 3500 is handled before getting too excited. So far mpesa bank is forming a base  I need more time to accumulate at sub 3/- Globally Sept 21st is being watched with hawkish eyes. Should the US Fed put out another QE i.e. QE3, global stocks will rally yet again. And if euroland is at the same time is somehow able to kick the disastrous debt can down the road, to buy more time, the snap back global stocks rally could be violent from the months of selling. We will see how this pans out then... NSE closed @3507 - came faster than I anticipated. The bounce doesn't feel stable since a number of bluechips are still flat. CBK rate hikes are going to increase loan lending rates & slow down the econ. They dont have a choice anyway.
@youcant - sasini... you know what I mean  If that shamba thing is real, a price re-rating of x10 by Mr Market is coming?! Which makes it clear why Mr Market has not killed agri stocks.
Equity & HFCK are on a hurried bounce. Unsustainable.
Tranny & britak both outdoing each other on the cliff fall. No hope. But sometime in future when PPT is really pissed off with their crash, this 2 will be ralling 10% for days... You will spot this manipulation easily with vapour volume...
I'm waiting too see the signs of the fakeout, but on britank. Tranny is just a tranny until the railway project starts & they trim a number of loser investments outside KE.
Mpesa is basing out. Exdiv & no price capitulation. Meza & tariff hikes are the PPT here
Paka still sub 2/- on NSE rebound. Someone said it can breath with its bottom when you think its dead. It aint working. But how this thing is above 50cts still defies logic! Height of irrationality...
Next index target 3600.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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@hisah, definitely payday will be coming for Sasini shareholders (hoping an Eagads is not being pulled) GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:@hisah, definitely payday will be coming for Sasini shareholders (hoping an Eagads is not being pulled) Or Meralli pulls a fast one on them ...lol
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Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:3357 is the pin off on the rebound. Let's us see how 3500 is handled before getting too excited. So far mpesa bank is forming a base I need more time to accumulate at sub 3/- Globally Sept 21st is being watched with hawkish eyes. Should the US Fed put out another QE i.e. QE3, global stocks will rally yet again. And if euroland is at the same time is somehow able to kick the disastrous debt can down the road, to buy more time, the snap back global stocks rally could be violent from the months of selling. We will see how this pans out then... NSE closed @3507 - came faster than I anticipated. The bounce doesn't feel stable since a number of bluechips are still flat. CBK rate hikes are going to increase loan lending rates & slow down the econ. They dont have a choice anyway.
@youcant - sasini... you know what I mean If that shamba thing is real, a price re-rating of x10 by Mr Market is coming?! Which makes it clear why Mr Market has not killed agri stocks.
Equity & HFCK are on a hurried bounce. Unsustainable.
Tranny & britak both outdoing each other on the cliff fall. No hope. But sometime in future when PPT is really pissed off with their crash, this 2 will be ralling 10% for days... You will spot this manipulation easily with vapour volume...
I'm waiting too see the signs of the fakeout, but on britank. Tranny is just a tranny until the railway project starts & they trim a number of loser investments outside KE.
Mpesa is basing out. Exdiv & no price capitulation. Meza & tariff hikes are the PPT here
Paka still sub 2/- on NSE rebound. Someone said it can breath with its bottom when you think its dead. It aint working. But how this thing is above 50cts still defies logic! Height of irrationality...
Next index target 3600.
point of correction . the index is doing x50 of the volume it was doing when it was falling . you want to say this rally or buying has no legs ...????? also i believe index resistance with break of 3500 shld be 2011 high NOT 3600 also equity shld go and test 25 in due time when all the supply has been taken out at 19-20. thats why am urging guys to buy with this huge volume . i believe this is smart money buying i am also waiting to dip into britak ..Buying blood on the streets.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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QW, 50 times the volume we were doing? Don't think so GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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I started buying britak on friday on this formula...bought 5,000 at 5.25...next 10,000 at 5...next 10,000 .at 4.50 and finally 15,000 every new low from 4.50 in bunches of 5k. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:QW, 50 times the volume we were doing? Don't think so ehehhe. yeah that was a deliberate exaggeration ...but there was a volume spike and we have to test 4k mark on the rally that will come ... Lakini am just wondering why is safcom rallying and yet ak which is int he same category isnt moving ...lol Mkr.Market has to correct this discrepancy..ASAP !!!!!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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QW25081985 wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:QW, 50 times the volume we were doing? Don't think so ehehhe. yeah that was a deliberate exaggeration ...but there was a volume spike and we have to test 4k mark on the rally that will come ... Lakini am just wondering why is safcom rallying and yet ak which is int he same category isnt moving ...lol Mkr.Market has to correct this discrepancy..ASAP !!!!!! "ehehhe. yeah that was a deliberate exaggeration ..." dude! QW for Head of Marketing, Wazua. (true-lies)
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:QW25081985 wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:QW, 50 times the volume we were doing? Don't think so ehehhe. yeah that was a deliberate exaggeration ...but there was a volume spike and we have to test 4k mark on the rally that will come ... Lakini am just wondering why is safcom rallying and yet ak which is int he same category isnt moving ...lol Mkr.Market has to correct this discrepancy..ASAP !!!!!! "ehehhe. yeah that was a deliberate exaggeration ..." dude! QW for Head of Marketing, Wazua. (true-lies) GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:QW25081985 wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:QW, 50 times the volume we were doing? Don't think so ehehhe. yeah that was a deliberate exaggeration ...but there was a volume spike and we have to test 4k mark on the rally that will come ... Lakini am just wondering why is safcom rallying and yet ak which is int he same category isnt moving ...lol Mkr.Market has to correct this discrepancy..ASAP !!!!!! "ehehhe. yeah that was a deliberate exaggeration ..." dude! QW for Head of Marketing, Wazua. (true-lies) That will be a bad idea since wazua plc will lose a lot of customers...
@QW - If 91day T-bill is above 10% interest rate (it might touch 14% as gok clocks more local debt), why would smart money bet the house on NSE right now? CBR is going higher, GDP is going lower, lending rates going higher, fx volatile, oil bill up, inflation to sustain above 10% etc... And we are yet to price in PIIGS defaulting... I'll keep 90% on my nse funds in gok t-bills until they turn dollar green. The 12yr infrastructure bond would be a nice place too, but the fixed rate is a put off & banks will give it a lukewarm reception.
GoK bills will be better than nse for a while...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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