Wazua
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Kenya Economy Watch
Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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mnandii wrote:http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/...-sh650m-33km-tarmac-roadA tarmac road which the National Gov. had said would cost 1.6 BILLION to build has been built at 650 MILLION and in 3 months! There is waste everywhere in Govmnt. And don't expect the attitude to change soon. That is the fate awaiting awaiting your bond money. pretty sad but true. this shows only a mere 30% of our money is put to good use
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Quote:At Elliott Wave International, we've tracked the relationship over the past two decades between interest rates set by the marketplace and interest rates set by the Federal Reserve. And what’s clear is that central banks are no more in control of interest rates than they are of the weather. They simply follow what the bond market dictates.
Quote:An Elliott wave practitioner monitoring the T-bill rate can predict with fair accuracy what the Fed will do. No one monitoring the Fed’s decisions can predict what T-bill rates will do.
http://www.elliottwave.com/free...gain..aspx#axzz3626ZXrPJConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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KE econ limping. Not good. Gross Domestic Product First Quarter 2014 - http://bit.ly/TK6VOH
Quote:Bad weather and insecurity pulled down overall growth to 4.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2014 from 5.2 per cent over the corresponding period last year, with agriculture, communications and finance recording the sharpest slow down. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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hisah wrote:KE econ limping. Not good. Gross Domestic Product First Quarter 2014 - http://bit.ly/TK6VOH
Quote:Bad weather and insecurity pulled down overall growth to 4.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2014 from 5.2 per cent over the corresponding period last year, with agriculture, communications and finance recording the sharpest slow down.  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:KE econ limping. Not good. Gross Domestic Product First Quarter 2014 - http://bit.ly/TK6VOH
Quote:Bad weather and insecurity pulled down overall growth to 4.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2014 from 5.2 per cent over the corresponding period last year, with agriculture, communications and finance recording the sharpest slow down. But Mr Market is still trying to overlook the brown shoots. Disconnected from the fundies. Waiting to see H1 and then Q3.
NSE20 at the current levels is overpriced. Needs to retest 4400 - 4500 to reset things and absorb the reality as GDP takes a hit.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/1/2009 Posts: 2,436
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@ Sufficiently Philanga....this phenomena also puzzled me - like most people I thought the impact of the eurobond on fx rates n interest rates would be immediate, so @Mnandii your comments on our subconscious perception that this bond will be a silver bullet make plenty of good sense.
I have a few queries:
1. So which way will MPC jump next week - raise CBR to stem inflation or lower CBR to further depress and hasten the spin-off effect of the Eurobond of lowering domestic lending rates?
2. What's the impact, if any, of this Eurobond on interbank liquidity? I am not seeing much diff from CBK's bulletin last week. And impact on the shorter and longer end of the yield curve?
3. Ha! If we have an animal called dim sum bond...maybe one day we may very well have an Afro bond?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@kizee1 - As I had earlier stated about the tbill madness at the moment, definitely MPC will hike CBR. Not bullish for equities and this will also squeeze the econ. I don't see MPC getting out of this tight corner soon. Inflation is scaring them. https://www.centralbank....results/91-days-t-bills
www.businessdailyafrica....6/-/exonu2z/-/index.html$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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@hisah, the KES has to be defended at all costs, atleast so they can manage/bring down the $2B Eurobond interest payments. That's their priority no.1. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
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By hiking CBR how does that affect t/bill rates; up or down? Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 972 Location: Home
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Othelo wrote:By hiking CBR how does that affect t/bill rates; up or down? Up.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:@hisah, the KES has to be defended at all costs, atleast so they can manage/bring down the $2B Eurobond interest payments. That's their priority no.1. The question of defending the shilling is a difficult one. Though that's where we should concentrate on, especially when we are in a 'global re-ordering' - read 'world war'. Demand for oil is rising, and is likely to be high for a while, to start with.
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Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
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holycow wrote:Othelo wrote:By hiking CBR how does that affect t/bill rates; up or down? Up. Ashante! Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Not looking fwd to MPC tomorrow. This article says it all. Rate hike. http://www.nation.co.ke/...8/-/2th06gz/-/index.html$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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A rate hike today would be interesting after all the hype about the Eurobond helping lower interest rates... What I am looking forward to is the guidance rate and how this will be digested by the banks. Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Othelo wrote:holycow wrote:Othelo wrote:By hiking CBR how does that affect t/bill rates; up or down? Up. Ashante! T/Bill rates are set by the market thr' auction. CBR rate is set by 'potent directors' of the Central Bank. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Mainat wrote:A rate hike today would be interesting after all the hype about the Eurobond helping lower interest rates...
What I am looking forward to is the guidance rate and how this will be digested by the banks. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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The War on Cash: Quote:Now, international organizations, tax-exempt billion-dollar foundations, and crony capitalist businesses and banks have banded together in an unholy alliance with national governments and their central banks in the drive toward a “cashless society.” Quote:One of the key initiatives promoted by the Alliance is to induce governments of developing countries to deliver welfare electronically. Thus according to the Alliance’s website, “When using cash, shifting humanitarian aid and emergency relief to electronic payments creates lasting benefits for people, communities and economies and is more transparent and efficient.” Currently featured on the Alliance’s website is a blog entry entitled “Is Cash the Enemy of Financial Inclusion” as well as a webinar recording ”E-payments Deliver 15% Greater Costs Efficiencies in Kenya – Is This The Future of Food Assistance? plan ” This initiative seems to be making headway in the developing world. In 2012 Nigeria began phasing in a plan to go completely cashless. On July 1, 2014 the final phase of the plan was implemented. Quote:Biometric tracking and data gathering by governments and its crony banks share the same objective as the war on cash: the abolition of financial and personal privacy. linkConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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[quote=hisah]Not looking fwd to MPC tomorrow. This article says it all. Rate hike. http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/2th06gz/-/index.html[/quote] Reads like....strike them with one hand(travel advisories),offer them 'support'(IMF) with the other, and you succeed in maintaining your status as the master while the borrower remains a slave. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Reads like....strike them with one hand(travel advisories),offer them 'support'(IMF) with the other, and you succeed in maintaining your status as the master while the borrower remains a slave. When kibs was in charge IMF had little limelight. But now, sigh.
Btw MPC has retained CBR at 8.5%. But Tbill rates still scaling up...   $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Reads like....strike them with one hand(travel advisories),offer them 'support'(IMF) with the other, and you succeed in maintaining your status as the master while the borrower remains a slave. When kibs was in charge IMF had little limelight. But now, sigh.
Btw MPC has retained CBR at 8.5%. But Tbill rates still scaling up... Why are they stalking us  Another round of SAPs? Baks had put them where they belong! On retaining the cbr at 8.5% while still accepting 91day T/Bills at 11.50%,the banks have another 2 months of partying,easy 3%...while it lasts As for its effects on inflation and KES,well it looks like a major gamble from them. @SufficientlyP
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