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Kenya airways Right Issue
obiero
#721 Posted : Monday, July 17, 2017 10:24:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,519
Location: nairobi
Spikes wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I am so glad I took my losses and got rid of this piece of crap 5 years ago though it's a pity I am a shareholder via GoK as a Taxpayer.

@vvs please read the circular, even if it's for the sake of it. GoK has gotten a very good deal and the other shareholders too. By logic, we should expect a rally today..


Kigeugeu kamili.....

Excuse me?

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
snifadog
#722 Posted : Monday, July 17, 2017 11:30:34 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/6/2016
Posts: 165
Location: Nairobi
What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks
obiero
#723 Posted : Monday, July 17, 2017 11:55:03 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,519
Location: nairobi
snifadog wrote:
What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks

Twelve months is too far.. By today, the fair value of KQ should read KES 8.5 at the least.. One needs to review the pro forma balance sheet to get a feel of things to come

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
the deal
#724 Posted : Monday, July 17, 2017 12:07:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
obiero wrote:
snifadog wrote:
What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks

Twelve months is too far.. By today, the fair value of KQ should read KES 8.5 at the least.. One needs to review the pro forma balance sheet to get a feel of things to come


Bwana @Obiero how do you arrive at this? Based on what valuation metric? PE Rato...Price To Book Value Ratio post balance sheet restructuring? I think the KQ stock is overvalued at the moment...it should be trading at around Ksh3-4...are you happy that GoK is now a majority shareholder? Given the track record of African Government owned airlines are you not scared?
kayhara
#725 Posted : Monday, July 17, 2017 12:23:20 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/5/2011
Posts: 1,059
The share will get a beating for a short while because many people read this line from BD
Quote:
If the plan is approved, the 70,000 Kenya Airways’ retail shareholders will be left with a tiny 1.24 per cent of the national carrier, down from 24 per cent — making them the biggest losers in the transaction.

Demand now at ksh 4.7 with low demand volume of 5,500 units, coming days will be very telling
To Each His Own
obiero
#726 Posted : Monday, July 17, 2017 2:43:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,519
Location: nairobi
the deal wrote:
obiero wrote:
snifadog wrote:
What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks

Twelve months is too far.. By today, the fair value of KQ should read KES 8.5 at the least.. One needs to review the pro forma balance sheet to get a feel of things to come


Bwana @Obiero how do you arrive at this? Based on what valuation metric? PE Rato...Price To Book Value Ratio post balance sheet restructuring? I think the KQ stock is overvalued at the moment...it should be trading at around Ksh3-4...are you happy that GoK is now a majority shareholder? Given the track record of African Government owned airlines are you not scared?

I'm not scared, as I am in both governments. I'll explain later.. Meanwhile, for the KES 8.5, I arrived there via indicative conversion price of KES 2.13 consolidated on a ratio of 1:4.. All the ordinary shares will be listed at the NSE. Hence, if the converted shares trade at KES 8.5, why would the minority stake trade any lower??

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
VituVingiSana
#727 Posted : Monday, July 17, 2017 3:00:10 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I am so glad I took my losses and got rid of this piece of crap 5 years ago though it's a pity I am a shareholder via GoK as a Taxpayer.

@vvs please read the circular, even if it's for the sake of it. GoK has gotten a very good deal and the other shareholders too. By logic, we should expect a rally today..

It's an awful deal for GoK [Taxpayers]. The better option would have been to put KQ into "Restructuring under Bankruptcy"and wipe out the existing shareholders while giving the creditors [including GoK] 100% of a "clean" KQ.

The country [Treasury/Taxpayers] would have been better off ditching many of the creditors, suppliers, employees, lawsuits, etc associated with "old KQ" for a "new KQ".
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#728 Posted : Monday, July 17, 2017 4:33:37 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
@Obiero - Do you have a detailed breakdown of which banks are exposed to Kenya Airways? And what amounts?

I have Equity, I&M, NIC & DTB in varying amounts. I hope 100% of their exposure to KQ has been NPL'd.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#729 Posted : Monday, July 17, 2017 5:03:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
obiero wrote:
snifadog wrote:
What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks

Twelve months is too far.. By today, the fair value of KQ should read KES 8.5 at the least.. One needs to review the pro forma balance sheet to get a feel of things to come


Bwana @Obiero how do you arrive at this? Based on what valuation metric? PE Rato...Price To Book Value Ratio post balance sheet restructuring? I think the KQ stock is overvalued at the moment...it should be trading at around Ksh3-4...are you happy that GoK is now a majority shareholder? Given the track record of African Government owned airlines are you not scared?

I'm not scared, as I am in both governments. I'll explain later.. Meanwhile, for the KES 8.5, I arrived there via indicative conversion price of KES 2.13 consolidated on a ratio of 1:4.. All the ordinary shares will be listed at the NSE. Hence, if the converted shares trade at KES 8.5, why would the minority stake trade any lower??




1. After consolidation there will be 7.2Bn trading listed ordinary shares
2. Shareholder Equity will be Ksh11Bn
3. KQ plans to borrow another Ksh10Bn from the already screwed banksLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
4. Book value per share after consolidation will be Ksh1.5


At Ksh8.5 I will be overpaying mahnsmile smile smile



Correct me if my numbers are wrong
lochaz-index
#730 Posted : Monday, July 17, 2017 5:17:41 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
the deal wrote:
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
obiero wrote:
snifadog wrote:
What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks

Twelve months is too far.. By today, the fair value of KQ should read KES 8.5 at the least.. One needs to review the pro forma balance sheet to get a feel of things to come


Bwana @Obiero how do you arrive at this? Based on what valuation metric? PE Rato...Price To Book Value Ratio post balance sheet restructuring? I think the KQ stock is overvalued at the moment...it should be trading at around Ksh3-4...are you happy that GoK is now a majority shareholder? Given the track record of African Government owned airlines are you not scared?

I'm not scared, as I am in both governments. I'll explain later.. Meanwhile, for the KES 8.5, I arrived there via indicative conversion price of KES 2.13 consolidated on a ratio of 1:4.. All the ordinary shares will be listed at the NSE. Hence, if the converted shares trade at KES 8.5, why would the minority stake trade any lower??




1. After consolidation there will be 7.2Bn trading listed ordinary shares
2. Shareholder Equity will be Ksh11Bn
3. KQ plans to borrow another Ksh10Bn from the already screwed banksLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
4. Book value per share after consolidation will be Ksh1.5


At Ksh8.5 I will be overpaying mahnsmile smile smile



Correct me if my numbers are wrong

@deal has it...8.5 would be an overpayment. Minority shareholders will gain on value but lose on market price...@obiero is mixing the two.

I find that the restructuring has too many moving parts more so on the part where KLM is concerned. Seems like a 'leap of faith' kind of plan.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
obiero
#731 Posted : Monday, July 17, 2017 6:14:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,519
Location: nairobi
the deal wrote:
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
obiero wrote:
snifadog wrote:
What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks

Twelve months is too far.. By today, the fair value of KQ should read KES 8.5 at the least.. One needs to review the pro forma balance sheet to get a feel of things to come


Bwana @Obiero how do you arrive at this? Based on what valuation metric? PE Rato...Price To Book Value Ratio post balance sheet restructuring? I think the KQ stock is overvalued at the moment...it should be trading at around Ksh3-4...are you happy that GoK is now a majority shareholder? Given the track record of African Government owned airlines are you not scared?

I'm not scared, as I am in both governments. I'll explain later.. Meanwhile, for the KES 8.5, I arrived there via indicative conversion price of KES 2.13 consolidated on a ratio of 1:4.. All the ordinary shares will be listed at the NSE. Hence, if the converted shares trade at KES 8.5, why would the minority stake trade any lower??




1. After consolidation there will be 7.2Bn trading listed ordinary shares
2. Shareholder Equity will be Ksh11Bn
3. KQ plans to borrow another Ksh10Bn from the already screwed banksLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
4. Book value per share after consolidation will be Ksh1.5


At Ksh8.5 I will be overpaying mahnsmile smile smile



Correct me if my numbers are wrong

Very wrong bro.. Please read the Project Safari circular. To answer your questions
1. Yes. Consolidation will reduce the available shares
2. 29.9B shares has equity value of 63B.. How will the reduced float of 7.4B shares result in market cap of 11.2B
3. Additional borrowing backed by guarantee will be at longer tenors and from valid banks, not the 3 nasty lenders who refused to convert
4. I won't even respond to that assessment

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
Ericsson
#732 Posted : Monday, July 17, 2017 9:33:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,684
Location: NAIROBI
http://www.businessdaily...19160-g0ihvm/index.html

Some commercial banks that national carrier Kenya Airways owes billions of shillings are holding out against the just-released rescue plan, putting the deal that offers the lenders a substantial stake in the airline at the risk of collapse.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Kausha
#733 Posted : Monday, July 17, 2017 9:39:11 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
obiero wrote:
snifadog wrote:
What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks

Twelve months is too far.. By today, the fair value of KQ should read KES 8.5 at the least.. One needs to review the pro forma balance sheet to get a feel of things to come


Bwana @Obiero how do you arrive at this? Based on what valuation metric? PE Rato...Price To Book Value Ratio post balance sheet restructuring? I think the KQ stock is overvalued at the moment...it should be trading at around Ksh3-4...are you happy that GoK is now a majority shareholder? Given the track record of African Government owned airlines are you not scared?

I'm not scared, as I am in both governments. I'll explain later.. Meanwhile, for the KES 8.5, I arrived there via indicative conversion price of KES 2.13 consolidated on a ratio of 1:4.. All the ordinary shares will be listed at the NSE. Hence, if the converted shares trade at KES 8.5, why would the minority stake trade any lower??




1. After consolidation there will be 7.2Bn trading listed ordinary shares
2. Shareholder Equity will be Ksh11Bn
3. KQ plans to borrow another Ksh10Bn from the already screwed banksLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
4. Book value per share after consolidation will be Ksh1.5


At Ksh8.5 I will be overpaying mahnsmile smile smile



Correct me if my numbers are wrong

Very wrong bro.. Please read the Project Safari circular. To answer your questions
1. Yes. Consolidation will reduce the available shares
2. 29.9B shares has equity value of 63B.. How will the reduced float of 7.4B shares result in market cap of 11.2B
3. Additional borrowing backed by guarantee will be at longer tenors and from valid banks, not the 3 nasty lenders who refused to convert
4. I won't even respond to that assessment


What is the post conversion NAV? That tells it all.
obiero
#734 Posted : Monday, July 17, 2017 10:20:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,519
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/KQ-recovery-plan-faces-banks-challenge/539546-4019160-g0ihvm/index.html

Some commercial banks that national carrier Kenya Airways owes billions of shillings are holding out against the just-released rescue plan, putting the deal that offers the lenders a substantial stake in the airline at the risk of collapse.

Fake news. This thing is signed sealed delivered

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
maka
#735 Posted : Monday, July 17, 2017 10:36:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/KQ-recovery-plan-faces-banks-challenge/539546-4019160-g0ihvm/index.html

Some commercial banks that national carrier Kenya Airways owes billions of shillings are holding out against the just-released rescue plan, putting the deal that offers the lenders a substantial stake in the airline at the risk of collapse.

Fake news. This thing is signed sealed delivered


New-York based White & Case (KQ’s international counsel) and Coulson Harney (their local lawyers) will also pocket a large portion of the Sh1 billion set aside for legal advisory work.
This bill includes the amount each company invoiced as well as the incidental costs incurred when the legal and transaction advisers were negotiating with the airline’s lessors, the government and the Kenyan banks, all of which KQ is footing.
possunt quia posse videntur
maka
#736 Posted : Monday, July 17, 2017 10:40:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
maka wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/KQ-recovery-plan-faces-banks-challenge/539546-4019160-g0ihvm/index.html

Some commercial banks that national carrier Kenya Airways owes billions of shillings are holding out against the just-released rescue plan, putting the deal that offers the lenders a substantial stake in the airline at the risk of collapse.

Fake news. This thing is signed sealed delivered


New-York based White & Case (KQ’s international counsel) and Coulson Harney (their local lawyers) will also pocket a large portion of the Sh1 billion set aside for legal advisory work.
This bill includes the amount each company invoiced as well as the incidental costs incurred when the legal and transaction advisers were negotiating with the airline’s lessors, the government and the Kenyan banks, all of which KQ is footing.



http://www.businessdaily...19044-pk2h7hz/index.html
possunt quia posse videntur
obiero
#737 Posted : Monday, July 17, 2017 10:43:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,519
Location: nairobi
maka wrote:
maka wrote:
obiero wrote:
[quote=Ericsson]http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/KQ-recovery-plan-faces-banks-challenge/539546-4019160-g0ihvm/index.html

Some commercial banks that national carrier Kenya Airways owes billions of shillings are holding out against the just-released rescue plan, putting the deal that offers the lenders a substantial stake in the airline at the risk of collapse.

Fake news. This thing is signed sealed delivered


New-York based White & Case (KQ’s international counsel) and Coulson Harney (their local lawyers) will also pocket a large portion of the Sh1 billion set aside for legal advisory work.
This bill includes the amount each company invoiced as well as the incidental costs incurred when the legal and transaction advisers were negotiating with the airline’s lessors, the government and the Kenyan banks, all of which KQ is footing.



http://www.businessdaily...9044-pk2h7hz/index.html[/quote]
@maka.. We, the shareholders will pay for the service delivered.. What's the issue.. The more I reflect on the circular, the more I thank goodness for Mbuvi Ngunze. He is wise beyond his years

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
muandiwambeu
#738 Posted : Monday, July 17, 2017 10:46:11 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
snifadog wrote:
What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks

Quite gloomy if u stick inside and wait to be properly clobbered by dilution** after kuslim.
You can only lay a claim to less than 5% of anything called this firm after the deal is sealed if you won't participate in the share offer deal whose pricing is yet to be determined and still a deal without guarantee to be favourable considering you will have to have a control of a further nothing.
Thereafter you will be in bed with partners whose interests are secured and may care less for your little concerns anyway. It's like being driven home by an exmathare. In case of winding up, thereafter in the given time, u will most and most definitely u end up Bing shafted twice and left high and dry.Sad Sad Sad
Further going by the current composition u will be worth something like 25cents for each kathing you own. Tafakari hayo.
And why ask if you can read what's in black and white so far?Sad
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
obiero
#739 Posted : Monday, July 17, 2017 11:07:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,519
Location: nairobi
muandiwambeu wrote:
snifadog wrote:
What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks

Quite gloomy if u stick inside and wait to be properly clobbered by dilution** after kuslim.
You can only lay a claim to less than 5% of anything called this firm after the deal is sealed if you won't participate in the share offer deal whose pricing is yet to be determined and still a deal without guarantee to be favourable considering you will have to have a control of a further nothing.
Thereafter you will be in bed with partners whose interests are secured and may care less for your little concerns anyway. It's like being driven home by an exmathare. In case of winding up, thereafter in the given time, u will most and most definitely u end up Bing shafted twice and left high and dry.Sad Sad Sad
Further going by the current composition u will be worth something like 25cents for each kathing you own. Tafakari hayo.
And why ask if you can read what's in black and white so far?Sad

@snifadog let not the wazua poet misguide you.. If the share was meant to trade at KES 0.25, what stopped it from going down today.. Further, it has been agreed that the Open Offer price shall be less than the conversion price and that Michael Joseph will determine the ratio along with at least 2/3 majority of the board. What else would a shareholder require??

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
muandiwambeu
#740 Posted : Monday, July 17, 2017 11:54:57 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
obiero wrote:
muandiwambeu wrote:
snifadog wrote:
What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks

Quite gloomy if u stick inside and wait to be properly clobbered by dilution** after kuslim.
You can only lay a claim to less than 5% of anything called this firm after the deal is sealed if you won't participate in the share offer deal whose pricing is yet to be determined and still a deal without guarantee to be favourable considering you will have to have a control of a further nothing.
Thereafter you will be in bed with partners whose interests are secured and may care less for your little concerns anyway. It's like being driven home by an exmathare. In case of winding up, thereafter in the given time, u will most and most definitely u end up Bing shafted twice and left high and dry.Sad Sad Sad
Further going by the current composition u will be worth something like 25cents for each kathing you own. Tafakari hayo.
And why ask if you can read what's in black and white so far?Sad

@snifadog let not the wazua poet misguide you.. If the share was meant to trade at KES 0.25, what stopped it from going down today.. Further, it has been agreed that the Open Offer price shall be less than the conversion price and that Michael Joseph will determine the ratio along with at least 2/3 majority of the board. What else would a shareholder require??

Joining @Obieros choir? @snifdog, sniff alittle of this seriocomical hilarious choir and see it lacks in substance andif tunes. If only the choir master could tell you all his other members are scheming on naivety and ignorant congregants.
A poem is met to be digested and be internalized not to tantalize and lure unwitting passersby to slaughter.
@obi please why not answer @snifadog without throwing unnecessary tantrums and innuendos and let him decide has a sober investor as is the spirit of this fora. Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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