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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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Monk
#3631 Posted : Friday, August 21, 2020 6:12:45 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/1/2009
Posts: 272
mnandii wrote:


Williamson Tea. We got the bottom right using Elliott Waves. Now rising toward our initial target of 166.12


Heading down ex-Div...
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Ericsson
#3632 Posted : Monday, August 24, 2020 9:31:17 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
mnandii wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
mnandii wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Applying Elliott waves can sometimes result in unbelievable forecasts. But Elliott Waves is simply the rigorous application of rules and guidelines and you have to then follow where they lead you.

So I am surprised by the forecast I am getting on KENYA AIRWAYS (KQ)



From a top of 18.43 on 20th DEC. 2017 KQ fell in three waves to complete an ABC pattern ending at 1.89. By rules and guidelines of Elliott Waves, three wave moves are usually more than fully retraced by the subsequent wave pattern.

In our case here KQ has found a bottom at 1.89. I now expect KQ to rally to an interim target of 12.90 being the end of blue wave B. An immediate move to 5.5 should be good indication that the rally scenario is playing out. As the pattern stand now, blue wave C is Fibonacci 1 times blue wave A. So I am bullish KQ. The very negative news on KQ should serve as sentiment extreme from whence KQ should rebound. [ Buy when there is blood on the streets]

If on the other hand KQ manages to fall further below 1.35 then there will be no helping it. My Elliott forecast will have been invalidated and I will look to apply an alternate.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly You have made @Obiero's weekend!
I would sure like to mark this post to review in 8 months.
"Buy when there is blood on the streets" refers to good firms being (temporarily) pummeled not dead horses being whipped.
Can we revisit this on 2nd Oct 2020? Do feel free to remind me if I forget.


This was a specific forecast for those who don't bother to research.
There are several others and especially Safaricom which has quite clear Elliott wave patterns.

Safaricom is already falling toward my target of 14.00. If you insist on holding the share then you might as well forget about it for some 1 to 2 years before it can find a bottom.
Within what timeframe do you think it will get to 14? Let's mark the date.

@mnandii - Have you figured out the timeframe in which Safaricom will get to 14? I want to mark the date smile


As I have stated before, with Elliott Waves we look more to the structure of the developing pattern as time prediction is not its forte. However, even the patterns can give good judgement to the estimated time for a given prediction to work out.

So, I want to state that I expect sub 14.00 in safcom soon buit not beyond September 2020. NB: Kindly don't quote me on time basis.


As days go by 14.00 for safaricom is becoming a mirage.
Counter is trading at price the ksh.14


Soon.
Patience.
Or Buy and lose


Stuck at 28.
I think clearer projection will be once they release HY results in November
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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mnandii
#3633 Posted : Sunday, August 30, 2020 5:40:38 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


This has been my preferred Elliott Wave count on the NSE 20 share index for sometime. I am however relegating it to an alternate count after considering the structure that the latest developments have made apparent now.

By the count NSE 20 share index has been falling in a zigzag combination WXY whereby W and X are complete. Wave Y is progressing with wave [a] and [b] of Y complete and the impulse waves (i) to (v) of [c] progressing. The Friday 28th August sharp rise would by this thinking suggest a completion of wave (i) to (iii) with the rise being part of wave (iv) then an expected wave (v) down to levels below 1700.

As stated before this is now my alternate count.
My preferred count and what I'll work with from now henceforth is suggestive of an ending diagonal as expounded below.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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  | | Edit by user: Sunday, August 30, 2020 5:43 PM | Reason: Not specified
mnandii
#3634 Posted : Sunday, August 30, 2020 6:36:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
An Ending Diagonal


....................................



The preferred Ending Diagonal count.

This count is preferred over the previous because wave 3 counts best as a zigzag combination [w] [x] [y]. Wave [w] of 3 is clearly a 5-3-5 making the first zigzag.
Wave [y] of 3 is another zigzag. A 5-3-5 waves (a)(b) and (c). In fact wave (c) of [y] of 3 is a Fibonacci 61.8% of (a), a golden ratio. NB: The Fibonacci ratio is the basis of Elliott Waves.
We have completed waves 1, 2 and 3 of the diagonal. The recent sharp rise should be wave 4 in progress. The structure of a diagonal suggests that wave 4 should overlap wave 1. By this token I expect the NSE 20 share index to rise to at least 2400 (2387.82 to be exact).

So in the next 1 month or so the NSE 20 share index should stage a relief rally toward the 2400 target. A sharp fall below 1700 will require a re-assessment of the counts.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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VituVingiSana
#3635 Posted : Sunday, August 30, 2020 11:25:38 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
@mnandii

How are your individual stocks' predictions doing?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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mnandii
#3636 Posted : Monday, August 31, 2020 6:24:15 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


The NSE 20 Share Index leads.
The economy follows.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3637 Posted : Wednesday, September 09, 2020 7:28:10 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


EQUITY BANK
That (A)(B)(C) you see is an Elliott Wave regular flat pattern people. Equity has bottomed at 27.88. It's very likely to climb back above 55. Buy and hold.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3638 Posted : Wednesday, September 09, 2020 7:32:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
KCB bank has also likely bottomed at 30.00 though its chart is not as clear as Equity Bank's. I say buy and hold
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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VyaBureSiachi
#3639 Posted : Friday, September 11, 2020 12:45:54 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 2/27/2018
Posts: 59
Location: Cambrian Dc
mnandii wrote:


Bamburi Cement. A bottom is still elusive. Should fall further .

Any update, sir?
If the radiance of a thousand suns were to burst at once into the sky that would be like the splendour of the mighty one.
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Ericsson
#3640 Posted : Friday, September 11, 2020 4:04:19 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
mnandii wrote:
KCB bank has also likely bottomed at 30.00 though its chart is not as clear as Equity Bank's. I say buy and hold


The bus has left
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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