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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
mnandii
#3611 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 11:22:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
VituVingiSana wrote:
@mmnandii - Let's pick specific stocks. I am only interested in what I own.
Centum, KenRe, Unga, I&M, C&G and SCB [my major holdings = 85%]

NBV, HAFR, etc are of zero interest to me.
http://wazua.co.ke/forum...8011&p=5#post900230


Okay. I'll look up the shares
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#3612 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 12:26:59 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Few people give The Wave Principle any quotient of validity. But study is important to dispel incredulity.

PART III of THE WAVE PRINCIPLE OF HUMAN SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR AND THE NEW SCIENCE OF SOCIONOMICS by Rober Prechter begins thus:


Quote:

PART III
THE BASIS OF THE WAVE PRINCIPLE IN BIOLOGY, PSYCHOLOGY AND SOCIOLOGY

The formal construction of the stock market's path implies a mechanism of impulsive cooperation on the part of the market participants and therefore of society at large. Because aggregate stock price movement is intricately patterned, there must be primary causes of its behaviour, forces that shape it. Part III argues that the primary mover of aggregate stock market prices is mass emotional change, which itself must be, and demonstrably is, independent of outside influence. The specifics of market action are determined by the naturally occurring direction, speed and extent of social mood changes.

If the Wave Principle were the only basis for making this claim, then proof would rest entirely upon demonstrating the validity of the Wave Principle. I believe the literature (including Chapters 5 through 7 of this book) has done a fair job of doing so. For many people, though, that is not enough to dispel skepticism. Is there any other basis to believe that mass emotional change is independent of social events and conditions? Are there biological and psychological sources of these emotional imperatives? Science provides insights that respond to this question in the affirmative


The Wave Principle is not merely another theory without basis. Painstaking work and research has been done to prove its validity. The Wave Principle validates itself. Whats more, it has a basis in science, which is gives it even better foundation.

The book I have quoted is 450 pages of pure insight. Any intellectually inclined individual would salivate for such information. I encourage you to take a step into this fascinating world.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Ericsson
#3613 Posted : Wednesday, August 05, 2020 8:29:38 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mnandii wrote:


SAFARICOM. Still falling. My target of sub 14.00 remains.

Do fundamentalists realize that the share has been falling despite the stellar results announced recently? Why has the good results not propped up the share as we were made to believe?

The only reason is that fundamentals do not determine the direction of a market. Causality is the opposite way: the market direction determines the direction of fundamentals


I don't think anyone expects stellar H1 results due in November.
The KES depreciation is also messing up the bulls.
That said, it would be interesting to see Scom retreat back to 14 levels. The fear gauge would be at an all time high.


Mimi naingoja at maximum price of 18
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
heri
#3614 Posted : Thursday, August 06, 2020 3:06:35 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 869
Location: nairobi
mnandii wrote:
obiero wrote:
mnandii wrote:
When the CEO of a company appears in the front pages of a magazine celebrating success, consider that a MAJOR TOP in that company's share price. SELL Safaricom and target to buy it at sub-10 bob!

BOB COLLYMORE: JOY AND PAIN OF RUNNING SAFARICOM

We may not get to KES 10 but KES 16 shall print before end of next week


Remember the way Safcom played around 2 - 2.50 for sometime? A similar scenario is in the offing for the sub - 10 bob. Safcom is FIVE Waves Up. A major correction is due.

I'll be posting charts soon.


Did we ever see this ?
heri
#3615 Posted : Thursday, August 06, 2020 3:11:19 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 869
Location: nairobi
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Five waves up in Safaricom. Expecting a move down to 14.35 to make wave 'A'.



very nice. Wave C takes us all the way to 10Pray Pray


Likely below 10. See how wave 2 retraced alot of wave 1.




Did we ever see these prices predicted in 2017 ?
Monk
#3616 Posted : Friday, August 07, 2020 9:38:10 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/1/2009
Posts: 272
@mnandii KCB is currently on a free fall :(. Where do you foresee it bottoming out?
VituVingiSana
#3617 Posted : Friday, August 07, 2020 11:08:37 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
Fundamental Investing primarily relies on PERFORMANCE (profits, assets, cashflow) which does not always correlate with the share price especially in the short term.

@mmandii - It seems that Elliott and Charts are about the "price" more than the underlying financial performance. Do I have this right?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
wukan
#3618 Posted : Saturday, August 08, 2020 8:33:09 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
VituVingiSana wrote:
Fundamental Investing primarily relies on PERFORMANCE (profits, assets, cashflow) which does not always correlate with the share price especially in the short term.

@mmandii - It seems that Elliott and Charts are about the "price" more than the underlying financial performance. Do I have this right?


Charts converge all the information. If you do your fundamentals and decide to buy/sell it will reflect in the price. Your behavior will reflect in the chart. When you are unsure about the fundamentals then you will slow down in purchase or sell the securities and that will reflect in the impulse waves on the charts.
VituVingiSana
#3619 Posted : Sunday, August 09, 2020 7:00:52 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
wukan wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Fundamental Investing primarily relies on PERFORMANCE (profits, assets, cashflow) which does not always correlate with the share price especially in the short term.

@mmandii - It seems that Elliott and Charts are about the "price" more than the underlying financial performance. Do I have this right?


Charts converge all the information. If you do your fundamentals and decide to buy/sell it will reflect in the price. Your behavior will reflect in the chart. When you are unsure about the fundamentals then you will slow down in purchase or sell the securities and that will reflect in the impulse waves on the charts.
So fundamentals precede the charts. In other words, fundamentals are the now, charts are history.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
wukan
#3620 Posted : Monday, August 10, 2020 3:51:11 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
VituVingiSana wrote:
wukan wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Fundamental Investing primarily relies on PERFORMANCE (profits, assets, cashflow) which does not always correlate with the share price especially in the short term.

@mmandii - It seems that Elliott and Charts are about the "price" more than the underlying financial performance. Do I have this right?


Charts converge all the information. If you do your fundamentals and decide to buy/sell it will reflect in the price. Your behavior will reflect in the chart. When you are unsure about the fundamentals then you will slow down in purchase or sell the securities and that will reflect in the impulse waves on the charts.
So fundamentals precede the charts. In other words, fundamentals are the now, charts are history.


Human behaviour is what precedes everything and you are going to see it in totality in charts which you can use to predict price direction and momentum. E.g. the candlestick charts were codified by a Japanese rice trader(Munehisa Homma) who observed the same set of behaviour in the rice market that emotions have a decisive influence on the price of rice. Fundamentals is just one of the ingredients of the market and as you might have observed in this bear run it's not the most decisive factor. Charts are not history just predictive models based on historical information.
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