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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
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S.Mutaga III
#351 Posted : Thursday, November 29, 2012 2:16:16 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
sparkly wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
wilyum wrote:
headed back down,let it touch 14 and i reload.

i have always said that am a very patient man...am waiting for 14 too to average down.


Hope you will get there, but people who set specific price targets rarely have their way.

KCB touched 14.80 this year but people were saying they were waiting for 12. That didn't happen but anyone who bought between 14.8 and 20 made good money.

If a stock is selling at a discounted price it is much better to set a range for buying IMO.

Fair price of HF IMO is 27. My target for capital gains is 50% so i can buy at any price below 18.

So far my buys have been between 13.25 and 15.25 so in a way i achieve the same objective without timing the market.

you dont seem to get the logic.If I say that I will start buying at price X,I dont mean that I will only buy at price X.Any price lower than X will be a buy.Plus,if I buy at price X,my second purchase should be (X - Y),to average down.It makes more business sense to me
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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King G
#352 Posted : Thursday, November 29, 2012 2:32:28 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2012
Posts: 3,855
Location: Othumo
am with @sparkly on this one. have both entry and exit targets and maintain that even if it is just part of your portfolio.
Thieves
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S.Mutaga III
#353 Posted : Thursday, November 29, 2012 2:52:14 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
King G wrote:
am with @sparkly on this one. have both entry and exit targets and maintain that even if it is just part of your portfolio.

i have never quite understood the point of having an exit target.If you set that target,and it is reached,you may sell prematurely because you have not evaluated the company and its business in light of prevailing market conditions.Also,the stock may fail to reach your target before reversing the trend.I use rather mechanical means.First I approximate the fair value of a company.Then when the fair value is reached,I dont sell but track using trail stops to lock in gains.This enables me to take full advantage of a rally.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Mucene
#354 Posted : Thursday, November 29, 2012 6:25:36 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/4/2012
Posts: 155
Location: Kenya
@sparkly a good strategy you have there
If you don't want to go to plan B have a good plan A.
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murchr
#355 Posted : Wednesday, December 05, 2012 6:37:15 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Simplified wrote:
Applause a high of 16.50 today... and the trek up has just started...I wonder if 19 will print.Got 85% of my portfolio on this one


I guess yu have to wait another year, if u havent jumped the ship yet
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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dave.kim
#356 Posted : Monday, December 10, 2012 11:26:23 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/25/2010
Posts: 176
I was bugged by the fact that 2010 operating cash flow was so high (6,305,151) and for 2011 was negative (-2,562,347) so i decided to check the break down on the annual report. I found out that Increase in funds from corporate bonds 7,030,900 in 2010 is what led to the high Op. cashflow. Shouldn't that figure be considered as finance cash flow. Without this, the cash flow would also have been negative. These guys are giving out more mortgages than the deposits they are receiving.
Rule No.1 is never lose money. Rule No.2 is never forget rule number one
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, December 10, 2012 11:35 PM | Reason: Not specified
dave.kim
#357 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 7:41:34 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/25/2010
Posts: 176
I continued doing my homework and checked the financials from 2007 and the cash flow has been negative ever since. These guys have been spending more money than they are making.Thats it!Am cashing out
Rule No.1 is never lose money. Rule No.2 is never forget rule number one
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Mukiri
#358 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 8:58:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
dave.kim wrote:
I continued doing my homework and checked the financials from 2007 and the cash flow has been negative ever since. These guys have been spending more money than they are making.Thats it!Am cashing out


In December? Boss, you are brave! If what you say is true, I'll wait for a 17 thereabouts mid to end of next month.

Proverbs 19:21
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guru267
#359 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 9:32:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
dave.kim wrote:
I continued doing my homework and checked the financials from 2007 and the cash flow has been negative ever since. These guys have been spending more money than they are making.Thats it!Am cashing out


Are you sure you can really read a cashflow statement??

On a cashflow statement there are two sections "cash from operations" and the "closing cash balance"

The cash from operations should always be positive.. That said, the cash balance can be negative every year without causing any problems!

So from a cashflow point of view there are no problems with HFCK!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, December 11, 2012 9:33 PM | Reason: Not specified
guru267
#360 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 9:37:13 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Mukiri wrote:
dave.kim wrote:
I continued doing my homework and checked the financials from 2007 and the cash flow has been negative ever since. These guys have been spending more money than they are making.Thats it!Am cashing out


In December? Boss, you are brave! If what you say is true, I'll wait for a 17 thereabouts mid to end of next month.


Should i be made to believe that some investors are not aware of the cash position/solvency of their investments BEFORE investing??

Half baked investing if i ever seen some!!Shame on you
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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