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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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mnandii
#3551 Posted : Saturday, July 25, 2020 9:22:28 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


We made a forecast for Williamson Tea to rise. Well, it is rising, and now quite close to our target of 166 to confirm a new bullish stance.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3552 Posted : Saturday, July 25, 2020 10:23:32 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:


We have maintained that the NSE 20 share index should fall below 1900 [targets down lie at 1700 or below]. Seems there's a small triangle formation at about 1950s before the downtrend resumes


NSE 20 share index at 1886. New lows about to print as Kshs goes beyond 108.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Ericsson
#3553 Posted : Saturday, July 25, 2020 10:30:50 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:


We have maintained that the NSE 20 share index should fall below 1900 [targets down lie at 1700 or below]. Seems there's a small triangle formation at about 1950s before the downtrend resumes


NSE 20 share index at 1886. New lows about to print as Kshs goes beyond 108.



Ksh gained ground on Thursday and friday due to reduced demand in the oil sector.
Cbk also intervened by selling dollars
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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VituVingiSana
#3554 Posted : Monday, July 27, 2020 12:12:35 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Applying Elliott waves can sometimes result in unbelievable forecasts. But Elliott Waves is simply the rigorous application of rules and guidelines and you have to then follow where they lead you.

So I am surprised by the forecast I am getting on KENYA AIRWAYS (KQ)



From a top of 18.43 on 20th DEC. 2017 KQ fell in three waves to complete an ABC pattern ending at 1.89. By rules and guidelines of Elliott Waves, three wave moves are usually more than fully retraced by the subsequent wave pattern.

In our case here KQ has found a bottom at 1.89. I now expect KQ to rally to an interim target of 12.90 being the end of blue wave B. An immediate move to 5.5 should be good indication that the rally scenario is playing out. As the pattern stand now, blue wave C is Fibonacci 1 times blue wave A. So I am bullish KQ. The very negative news on KQ should serve as sentiment extreme from whence KQ should rebound. [ Buy when there is blood on the streets]

If on the other hand KQ manages to fall further below 1.35 then there will be no helping it. My Elliott forecast will have been invalidated and I will look to apply an alternate.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly You have made @Obiero's weekend!
I would sure like to mark this post to review in 8 months.
"Buy when there is blood on the streets" refers to good firms being (temporarily) pummeled not dead horses being whipped.
Can we revisit this on 2nd Oct 2020? Do feel free to remind me if I forget.


This was a specific forecast for those who don't bother to research.
There are several others and especially Safaricom which has quite clear Elliott wave patterns.

Safaricom is already falling toward my target of 14.00. If you insist on holding the share then you might as well forget about it for some 1 to 2 years before it can find a bottom.
Within what timeframe do you think it will get to 14? Let's mark the date.

@mnandii - Have you figured out the timeframe in which Safaricom will get to 14? I want to mark the date smile
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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mnandii
#3555 Posted : Thursday, July 30, 2020 10:40:01 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


Wrong move @Michael Joseph.
The bear market Safaricom is facing will soil your name and erase your previous commendable legacy. And this after coming from KQ which is insolvent!
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Ericsson
#3556 Posted : Thursday, July 30, 2020 10:45:20 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
mnandii wrote:


Wrong move @Michael Joseph.
The bear market Safaricom is facing will soil your name and erase your previous commendable legacy. And this after coming from KQ which is insolvent!


How sure are you he will remain the chairman of KQ post nationalization.
Chairman of Safaricom that was in the plan and was mentioned during the transition after passing on of Bob Collymore.
Safaricom is still growing and there are strategic directions he wants to shepherd it.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Ericsson
#3557 Posted : Thursday, July 30, 2020 10:46:54 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Applying Elliott waves can sometimes result in unbelievable forecasts. But Elliott Waves is simply the rigorous application of rules and guidelines and you have to then follow where they lead you.

So I am surprised by the forecast I am getting on KENYA AIRWAYS (KQ)



From a top of 18.43 on 20th DEC. 2017 KQ fell in three waves to complete an ABC pattern ending at 1.89. By rules and guidelines of Elliott Waves, three wave moves are usually more than fully retraced by the subsequent wave pattern.

In our case here KQ has found a bottom at 1.89. I now expect KQ to rally to an interim target of 12.90 being the end of blue wave B. An immediate move to 5.5 should be good indication that the rally scenario is playing out. As the pattern stand now, blue wave C is Fibonacci 1 times blue wave A. So I am bullish KQ. The very negative news on KQ should serve as sentiment extreme from whence KQ should rebound. [ Buy when there is blood on the streets]

If on the other hand KQ manages to fall further below 1.35 then there will be no helping it. My Elliott forecast will have been invalidated and I will look to apply an alternate.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly You have made @Obiero's weekend!
I would sure like to mark this post to review in 8 months.
"Buy when there is blood on the streets" refers to good firms being (temporarily) pummeled not dead horses being whipped.
Can we revisit this on 2nd Oct 2020? Do feel free to remind me if I forget.


This was a specific forecast for those who don't bother to research.
There are several others and especially Safaricom which has quite clear Elliott wave patterns.

Safaricom is already falling toward my target of 14.00. If you insist on holding the share then you might as well forget about it for some 1 to 2 years before it can find a bottom.
Within what timeframe do you think it will get to 14? Let's mark the date.

@mnandii - Have you figured out the timeframe in which Safaricom will get to 14? I want to mark the date smile


@vvs if share price reaches 20 jump in.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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WWW
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mnandii
#3558 Posted : Thursday, July 30, 2020 10:49:34 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
VituVingiSana wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Applying Elliott waves can sometimes result in unbelievable forecasts. But Elliott Waves is simply the rigorous application of rules and guidelines and you have to then follow where they lead you.

So I am surprised by the forecast I am getting on KENYA AIRWAYS (KQ)



From a top of 18.43 on 20th DEC. 2017 KQ fell in three waves to complete an ABC pattern ending at 1.89. By rules and guidelines of Elliott Waves, three wave moves are usually more than fully retraced by the subsequent wave pattern.

In our case here KQ has found a bottom at 1.89. I now expect KQ to rally to an interim target of 12.90 being the end of blue wave B. An immediate move to 5.5 should be good indication that the rally scenario is playing out. As the pattern stand now, blue wave C is Fibonacci 1 times blue wave A. So I am bullish KQ. The very negative news on KQ should serve as sentiment extreme from whence KQ should rebound. [ Buy when there is blood on the streets]

If on the other hand KQ manages to fall further below 1.35 then there will be no helping it. My Elliott forecast will have been invalidated and I will look to apply an alternate.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly You have made @Obiero's weekend!
I would sure like to mark this post to review in 8 months.
"Buy when there is blood on the streets" refers to good firms being (temporarily) pummeled not dead horses being whipped.
Can we revisit this on 2nd Oct 2020? Do feel free to remind me if I forget.


This was a specific forecast for those who don't bother to research.
There are several others and especially Safaricom which has quite clear Elliott wave patterns.

Safaricom is already falling toward my target of 14.00. If you insist on holding the share then you might as well forget about it for some 1 to 2 years before it can find a bottom.
Within what timeframe do you think it will get to 14? Let's mark the date.

@mnandii - Have you figured out the timeframe in which Safaricom will get to 14? I want to mark the date smile


As I have stated before, with Elliott Waves we look more to the structure of the developing pattern as time prediction is not its forte. However, even the patterns can give good judgement to the estimated time for a given prediction to work out.

So, I want to state that I expect sub 14.00 in safcom soon buit not beyond September 2020. NB: Kindly don't quote me on time basis.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, July 30, 2020 10:54 AM | Reason: typo
mnandii
#3559 Posted : Thursday, July 30, 2020 10:53:09 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:


Wrong move @Michael Joseph.
The bear market Safaricom is facing will soil your name and erase your previous commendable legacy. And this after coming from KQ which is insolvent!


Investors should also remember that the CEO of Safaricom currently is a SHORT guy. The bear market chose the right candidate to steer Safaricom through the turbulence ahead.

Short the stock!
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3560 Posted : Thursday, July 30, 2020 10:56:01 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Ericsson wrote:


@vvs if share price reaches 20 jump in.


Will be too early
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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