Schools are burning now. Most people( even theories) can't connect the burning of schools to the Stock Market. Yet, they are of the same causality.

I did anticipate the decline in our stock market more than a year ago (see the very first post of this wazua.co.ke thread). Now the the NSE 20 share index is declining massively.

I've also posted notes here on the Socionomic aspects of the declining social mood (as measured by the declining stock index). I also indicated that the fact of Universities being opened in almost every corner of Kenya, the winning by the Teachers Union of a tremendous increase in salary for teachers and the selling of a private school at an extremely high price marked the topping process in education matters. The bear market in education was the next logical expectation. Even now there is alot of interest in higher education but when the bear catches proper, then, expect education to be shunned.

So, how do we connect the burning of schools to our stock market and then to society as a whole? Simple. The NSE 20 share Index is falling, meaning that negative social mood (the Index is sensitive to mood) is taking over at large degree.

The youth respond quicker to changes in social mood (remember they set the trend in fashion for example) and that is why one of the negative consequence of a decline in social mood , i.e. the tendency to destroy (by burning) has manifested itself first in schools (where most youths can be found). This means that in Kenya, going forward, negative mood will entrench itself and the rest of society will also show the destructive impulses that the youth are exhibiting. I have argued here before that come 2017, and IF the the stock market will be shuttling to below 2000 levels (which I expect to happen) then the next General Elections will be bloody i.e far worse than the 2007 -2008 one.

The beauty of socionomics is that you get to anticipate events before they happen and you can therefore prepare yourself adequately.

Do read:

-THE WAVE PRINCIPLE OF HUMAN SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR by ROBERT PRECHTER.

-CONQUER THE CRASH by ROBERT PRECHTER.

www.socionomics.net

For the first time in years I feel quite bullish about the market. The 2020's will be roaring for East africa.
1. The recent downward trend in prices will slowly attract risk capital to equities. There is more upside reward.
2. Opus dei has also shed his cautious approach to monetary stance.
3. Ouru is starting to get right on the right fiscal stimulus transmission and prioritizing low capital but high return projects. He now looks quite in charge politically to check on leakages.
4. Geopolitics of US UK v China favors Kenya. IMF and world bank, eurobond investors have been quite tame with us. Battles of the moneyed are sweet.
5. informal sector went through the interest rate cap stress test and built the resilience.