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Realities of Forex Investment
lochaz-index
#3491 Posted : Wednesday, July 27, 2016 6:07:02 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
alutacontinua wrote:
BOJ really causing volatility this week.....lots of rumours doing the rounds about helicopter money and size of stimulus package. Looks like Abe is set to announce a stimulus package of 27T wondering if 50-Year JGBs could be part of it.....


Financial twilight zone knows no bounds. 'Helicopter money' as it is being touted is another colossal failure waiting to happen.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
alutacontinua
#3492 Posted : Thursday, July 28, 2016 5:46:54 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
Brief analysis of the markets post FOMC......

"The dollar continued to be sold in Asian and early European trade in post FOMC reaction as markets become more and more convinced that the Fed has no intention of hiking rates in september despite issuing a generally upbeat communique yesterday.

The FOMC statement yesterday noted that "On balance, payrolls and other labor market indicators point to some increase in labor utilization in recent months" and "household spending has been growing strongly." However the FED tempered expectations by cautioning that "Market based measured of inflation compensation remain low; most survey based measures of longer term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months."

The later sentence provided US monetary officials with plenty of wiggle room to hold rates steady until December at very earliest. And in all fairness to FOMC policymakers there was very little chance that US officials would make any interest rate changes ahead of the US election in November.

Although the FED maintains its apolitical status, the wildly polarizing tone of this years election has no doubt made most FED officials highly fearful of causing further turbulence in what already could prove to be a very volatile environment for the capital markets.

Therefore after a knee jerk reaction higher, the buck started to slip against all majors in late North American trade yesterday and has continued to drift lower as EUR/USD popped back above 1.1100 figure and USD/JPY dropped below 105.00"

Looks like BOJ monetary policy statement and conference tomorrow morning will be the key driver of the markets in the coming sessions.

The FED has moved from 4 rate hikes this year to markets now pricing 1 (as stated in the article above it will also be highly unlikely due to November elections). Looks like the dollar swings will be with us until December which in my 2 cents looks like a high probability.
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
alutacontinua
#3493 Posted : Friday, July 29, 2016 6:44:07 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
Its been an interesting close to the week with US advanced GDP coming in at 1.2% vs. 2.6-3.0% expected further pushing rate hike expectations. Probabilities of a September rate hike are now down to 12% from 28%.

BOJ caused lots of jitters today with Yen volatility being its highest since 2008. Kuroda disappointed Yen bears and with the bad GDP data USDJPY is currently down 2.8% for the day.

Interesting points to note are that BOJ have stated they are closely monitoring FX moves and are willing to take necessary steps if need be. (Bazookas from verbal interventions are more than likely going to happen more often)
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
alutacontinua
#3494 Posted : Tuesday, August 02, 2016 6:53:27 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
USDJPY approaching 100....Caution ahead as BOJ could decide to intervene.
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
hisah
#3495 Posted : Tuesday, August 02, 2016 7:18:17 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
alutacontinua wrote:
USDJPY approaching 100....Caution ahead as BOJ could decide to intervene.

I don't think they'll intervene until the market tests 95.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
RFE_20354
#3496 Posted : Wednesday, August 03, 2016 10:45:05 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 7/4/2016
Posts: 18
With the negative interest rates doing little to help in bringing inflation up, what would be the effect of positive interest rates? Wouldn't they help in catching the markets unawares and making the Yen cheap therefore reducing Abe's headache?

NB: I acknowledge that positive rates are only applicable in markets with high inflation, but the negative rates are not helping Japan at all, in any case they seem to be doing more damage. My 2 cents.
lochaz-index
#3497 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2016 8:10:55 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
lochaz-index wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
murchr wrote:
What is the expected impact of the shilling downgrade? Strong $$

Eurobond 2.0 out the window. Premium rates will be demanded by the bond market.

Capital flight into the USD is a global trend that KE can't escape.

Which way, austerity to cut gok recurrent budget or print to stimulate the slumping private sector? Election looms so the latter is likely. Inflation will chew KES 'strength'.

BNP Paribas warns Kenya risks foreign debt default

@murchr this is what I meant with the looming strong USD expected post BREXIT. Nobody is planning for supersized USD strength as the wheels come off in euroland. Confidence is a very expensive commodity. Sovereign debt fallout is real and will be chaotic as the USD inflates!

I don't like where this is headed nor what is inevitably coming our way. We managed to double our total debt in under 4 years. If we are already on an exponential debt growth pattern then this could get ugly pretty fast.

Combining our seemingly insatiable appetite for debt, an increasingly larger interest component as a % of debt repayments, premium borrowing rates and a KES devaluation is a disaster in the making. Using an exponential doubling time as the base case,we might be looking at a debt burden of 7trillion (bigger than our GDP) as early as 2018. The guys at BNP Paribas are overly generous by stating a default is five years away if the situation isn't rectified pronto.

The euro bond appears to have aborted which could mean our debt mix will get worse in the course of this year as the govt undertakes patchwork borrowing antics. T-bills/bonds yield spike is a certainty before the year is out.

That said, has Treasury repaid the overdraft for the last financial year? Cbk and the mandarins at treasury are still at loggerheads in an austerity vs expansionist fight. Turning on the spigots needs the Cbk to be agreeable to the whims of the executive...I am not sure that is the case now. At some point one of them will have to drop their stance.

Treasury crossed into the new financial year with an overdue overdraft. 60b borrowed from China helped repay part of the monies. Talk of digging new holes to fill up the old ones. These sort of distress signals are extremely unsettling.
http://www.businessdaily...7656-6132b7z/index.html
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
RFE_20354
#3498 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2016 1:53:51 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 7/4/2016
Posts: 18
I love being contrarian and i predict BOE holding the rate as it is. A cheap pound is better for them.
RFE_20354
#3499 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2016 2:12:19 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 7/4/2016
Posts: 18
RFE_20354 wrote:
I love being contrarian and i predict BOE holding the rate as it is. A cheap pound is better for them.


I think the jumped the gun too early. They should have waited until a clear path on life after Brexit becomes clear. The only reason the pound is down is uncertainty in the market.
Othelo
#3500 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2016 2:45:34 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
RFE_20354 wrote:
RFE_20354 wrote:
I love being contrarian and i predict BOE holding the rate as it is. A cheap pound is better for them.


I think the jumped the gun too early. They should have waited until a clear path on life after Brexit becomes clear. The only reason the pound is down is uncertainty in the market.


C&P from BBC Business news:
>>>>>>>>

UK interest rates have been cut from 0.5% to 0.25% - a record low and the first cut since 2009.

The Bank of England announced a range of measures to stimulate the UK economy including buying £60bn of UK government bonds and £10bn of corporate bonds.

The Bank also announced the biggest cut to its growth forecasts since it started making them in 1983.

It has reduced its growth prediction for 2017 from the 2.3% it was expecting in May to 0.8%.

The decision to cut interest rates to 0.25% was approved unanimously by the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and is the first change in interest rates since March 2009.
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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