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karanjakinuthia
#341 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2010 2:02:31 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
A view from Moody's.

"This report, the first of a two-part series, is based on a presentation that was made to investors in various European cities throughout April 2010 and will assess the risk of contagion to banking systems emanating from these sovereign concerns. The second part of this series – which will be published shortly – will assess the exposures and capital implications for major European banking systems to the four Southern European countries...."

Read more:

http://ftalphaville.ft.c...urozone-bank-contagion/

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karanjakinuthia
#342 Posted : Friday, May 07, 2010 5:55:01 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
@Guru267, please inbox me at karanjakinuthia@hotmail.com to discuss a matter.
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karanjakinuthia
#343 Posted : Friday, May 07, 2010 6:10:24 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Could Fat Finger please stand up!

"NEW YORK — In a late-day plunge eerily reminiscent of famous Wall Street stock market meltdowns in 1987 and the fall of 2008, the Dow Jones industrials nosedived almost 1,000 points Wednesday in a volatile day that began with heavy selling on Greek debt fears and was followed by a waterfall decline that was allegedly caused by erroneous trades and "unusual trading activity."

In a roughly 15-minute span that began around 2:30 p.m. on Wall Street, the Dow, which was already down almost 300 points, suffered the bulk of its biggest-ever intraday dive, falling as much as 998.50 points, or 9.2%, to 9869.62. The violent drop was followed by a rebound nearly as steep, with the Dow finishing down 347.80 points, or 3.2%, to 10,502.32...."

Read more:

http://www.usatoday.com/...-07-dowcrash07_CV_N.htm

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guru267
#344 Posted : Friday, May 07, 2010 6:28:02 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
the world markets have gone into free fall with the dow jones falling 347 points or 3.2% with the low for the day being 900 points or 8.8% this being caused by a hedge fund liquidation...

The panic being caused by a possible contagion from greece, possible bank default and the imminent downgrade of portugal that threatens a massive liquidity crisis.

the NIKKEI in japan has fallen this morning almost 4% with the japanese government pumping $20billion to prevent a further fall and panic...

this rapid fall in markets and the Euro is set to cause panic among retail investors and fund managers worldwide

the only way one would convince me that the NSE will be spared is the use of the decoupling theory where Kenya can still post growth amid a European decline and it remaind to be seen how this is possible...

Kenya's top earners include horticulture, tourism, agricultural exports, diaspora remittances and all these are directly linked with Europe so my advice is to sell out all companies linked to Europe for example KQ and the agricultural stocks because demand from Europe is going to fall drastically with all the austerity measures that have been passed in greece and soon throughout Europe...

WE ARE ABOUT TO START CALLING CASH "KING" IF EUROPE DOES NOT SORT OUT ITS MESS VERY SOON..

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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karanjakinuthia
#345 Posted : Friday, May 07, 2010 7:02:07 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
The little big secret is that the debt market dictates interest rates, not central banks. Despite popular belief, central banks follow the market.

The European Central Bank's indication that it will maintain its interest rate at 1% was fell on deaf ears yesterday. Traders were focused on their terminals as contagion spreads to other Club Med nations whose interest rates on sovereign debt are spiking.

"LONDON, May 5 (Reuters) - The premium investors demand to hold 10-year euro zone peripheral government bonds instead of German benchmarks rose on Wednesday while the two-year Schatz yield hit a record low as fears of contagion from the Greek crisis spread.

The selloff in peripheral sovereign debt drove Bund futures to their highest level since March 2009...."

Read more:

http://www.reuters.com/a...e/idUSLDE6440PE20100505

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Scubidu
#346 Posted : Friday, May 07, 2010 8:07:28 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@kk. The little big secret seems difficult to swallow, perhaps needs further explanation.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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karanjakinuthia
#347 Posted : Friday, May 07, 2010 1:11:14 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
@Scubidu. You will recall in days past when markets were calm like Zanzibar's coastline, market participants would wait with bated breath for the Fed and ECB interest rate announcements. This would be the base with which the markets would set their interest rates (credit card, mortgage, lending, savings etc)

The truth of the matter is that the bond markets set interest rates. The central banks follow the market but make it seem as though they are setting rates.

Despite the best intentions of the ECB, interest rates are being determined by the bond markets based on probability of default. The unchanged 1% rate announcement was akin to the weather forecast; a novelty. A likely scenario is for the ECB to follow Europe's interest rate march upwards.
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sheep
#348 Posted : Friday, May 07, 2010 4:01:33 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
Mambo bad in the international markets.Is this a double dip recession?
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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karanjakinuthia
#349 Posted : Saturday, May 08, 2010 6:27:34 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
@ Sheep. Those nations that are rammed by the Debt Crisis will face recessions or depressions. It seems that the Club Med countries are in the path of the storm. Therefore, the inviting conclusion is that in the medium term, southern Europe will face the aforementioned conditions.

The Euro will crack under the pressure. No mechanism has been established to allow individual countries to devalue their currencies or adjust interest rates. That was the model in the U.S. pre-1933 where 12 regional banks as part of the Federal Reserve system were allowed to adjust interest rates; attracting and repelling capital where necessary.

Britain and the U.S. are also under threat.

Let us hope that our politicians are taking notes in the years leading up to the common East African common currency and monetary union.

Pay keen attention to gold. It is playing its historical role as a personal reserve currency and a hedge against destabilisation of the nation state. Gold in Euro terms is at all time high of €949.04 whilst British Pound gold is at £818.58.

If you are interested in investing in gold, please inbox me at karanjakinuthia@hotmail.com
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karanjakinuthia
#350 Posted : Saturday, May 08, 2010 6:51:51 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Banks and governments in these five shaky economies owe each other many billions of euros — converted here to dollars — and have even larger debts to Britain, France and Germany :

http://tinyurl.com/2w4p737


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