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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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mnandii
#3471 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2020 6:58:43 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
VituVingiSana wrote:
slick wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Hehehehe

My people on the NSE, are you seeing what Bitcoin is doing?



Kenyan markets are too slow and one has to wait a looooong time to make decent gains.

Offshore markets especially cryptos and US stock market are highly volatile and make big moves and if you understand the dynamics and shenanigans of Wall Street and make short term leveraged trades,one can make a lot of $$$$$$ Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly in a very short time.
Can't these trades go either way?
Lose $$$$$$ in a very short time.

Is why you need Stop Losses. If the trade goes against you to a certain level then you know you may need to re-assess your forecast and adjust accordingly. This is where Elliott waves trumps other methods of analyses. Coz it gives you a target which if met then it means that your preferred Elliott count may not be the one.

E.g. One rule of Elliott Waves is that a second wave must not retrace more than 100% of the first wave. If that happens then your count requires a re-assessment.


Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3472 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2020 7:06:24 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


BAT broke below our channel. Suggestive of a third wave DOWN. Still has a long way DOWN to go.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3473 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2020 7:13:18 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
EQUITY BANK
The recent rally has almost been wholly retraced. Targets below 30.00

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3474 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2020 7:16:41 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
STANDARD CHARTERED BANK

Sharp drop below 174. Should fall much further DOWN.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3475 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2020 7:20:19 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
EAST AFRICAN BREWERIES LTD (EABL)
Wave (iii) DOWN in progress. Should fall much further.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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lochaz-index
#3476 Posted : Wednesday, May 20, 2020 8:48:26 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
mnandii wrote:


The NSE 20 Share Index should resume its FALL anytime now. The next target is 1720s.

May has seen sideways action so far for most markets. Weakness however is apparent in many of them. Like the NSE20 they will likely test the March lows. Eabl has already put out a profit warning for FY2020 and we are only in Q2 while banks are reluctant to release Q1 results...ridiculous prices coming up.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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lochaz-index
#3477 Posted : Wednesday, May 20, 2020 10:51:39 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:


The NSE 20 Share Index should resume its FALL anytime now. The next target is 1720s.

May has seen sideways action so far for most markets. Weakness however is apparent in many of them. Like the NSE20 they will likely test the March lows. Eabl has already put out a profit warning for FY2020 and we are only in Q2 while banks are reluctant to release Q1 results...ridiculous prices coming up.

So far stanbic is down 35% while NCBA is down 24% for Q1. Q2 will be a horror show. Given that the ratings downgrade of KE banks will continue on account of sovereign debt holdings (as risk of default increases) and increasing NPLs, banks will be caught in a tight spot where any further lending (to private or public sector) will have an assymetric risk:return ratio that isn't worth pursuing. A potential cash is king scenario (liquidity preference) for lenders with perhaps a spillover to the stock market thereby creating a floor.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Ericsson
#3478 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2020 9:14:04 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
mnandii wrote:


Diamond Trust Bank appears set to fall much further. Sub 50.00s on the cards.
If however it rises above 89.10 then I will re-assess. This however is a remote possibility


Yesterday closed at 71
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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mnandii
#3479 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2020 6:31:43 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Applying Elliott waves can sometimes result in unbelievable forecasts. But Elliott Waves is simply the rigorous application of rules and guidelines and you have to then follow where they lead you.

So I am surprised by the forecast I am getting on KENYA AIRWAYS (KQ)



From a top of 18.43 on 20th DEC. 2017 KQ fell in three waves to complete an ABC pattern ending at 1.89. By rules and guidelines of Elliott Waves, three wave moves are usually more than fully retraced by the subsequent wave pattern.

In our case here KQ has found a bottom at 1.89. I now expect KQ to rally to an interim target of 12.90 being the end of blue wave B. An immediate move to 5.5 should be good indication that the rally scenario is playing out. As the pattern stand now, blue wave C is Fibonacci 1 times blue wave A. So I am bullish KQ. The very negative news on KQ should serve as sentiment extreme from whence KQ should rebound. [ Buy when there is blood on the streets]

If on the other hand KQ manages to fall further below 1.35 then there will be no helping it. My Elliott forecast will have been invalidated and I will look to apply an alternate.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly You have made @Obiero's weekend!
I would sure like to mark this post to review in 8 months.
"Buy when there is blood on the streets" refers to good firms being (temporarily) pummeled not dead horses being whipped.
Can we revisit this on 2nd Oct 2020? Do feel free to remind me if I forget.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3480 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2020 6:45:49 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


I believe my bullish forecast on KQ has worked wonders. And most people are quite surprised by the recent rise despite KQ posting major losses.

All we had to do to catch a bottom was to count ABC! See, quite easy.

Now the small Downward retracement is making people jittery, some will even sell at a loss. I say, stay PUT. See how strong the turn UP for KQ was? I expect it to rise further UP.
When (If) it moves above Ksh 5.50 then our bullishness will even be more firmed. KQ will likely defy the rest of the market and rise above Ksh 13.00.

On the other hand, a disclaimer is necessary. If KQ falls below Ksh 0.829 then we'll have to abandon this forecast. THIS however, judging by the structure of the recent rise and the Elliott Wave counts, is a remote possibility.

CONCLUSION: Do not sell KQ. Buy more.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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