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Scubidu
#331 Posted : Wednesday, May 05, 2010 9:29:28 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@guru267. wow, i didn't think u'd respond to movements in international markets so quickly. Is it wise to do that? Seems like way to many variables to factor in to a decision (not including the local factors).

@kk. Remember those US Bonds that CBK bought through the RAMP program, there maybe a good reason for that. Stumbled onto an interesting article about US treasury yields.

http://www.bespokeinvest...pposed-to-be-rising.html
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
karanjakinuthia
#332 Posted : Wednesday, May 05, 2010 4:50:06 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
@ Scubidu. The author provides a limited timeline over which to comprehensively analyse.

A long term chart filters noise and brings to the fore the steady uptrend from 1981. Once that line-in-the-sand is broken, look down below.

In the medium term, U.S. Treasuries are set to benefit from safe harbour status as contangion fears plague Euro bonds. Please note the spike high in 2008 as investors abandoned many a market amidst the financial storm.

However, over the long term, the debt tsunami will set course for the U.S. mainland. Debt investors will then seek shelter in stocks, commodities, real-estate, the Aussie, Swissie and Canadian Dollar.

http://www.mrci.com/beta...p;source=/pdf/us.pdf%22

karanjakinuthia
#333 Posted : Wednesday, May 05, 2010 4:53:03 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Gold in recent times has risen on the back of the U.S. Dollar's fall and vice versa; picture a see-saw. The Debt Crisis emanating from Europe has flipped that correlation, gold is rising along with the Dollar. This was the case in the 1931 Currency Crisis when the Dollar was interchangeable to gold at $20.67.

Other assets to have appreciated during that tumultuous period were the U.S. stock markets as a port of safety from debt defaults in both Europe and South America.

"UGANDA on Tuesday opened its first gold refinery, hoping to tap into processing the precious metal from neighbouring producing countries.

The refinery, established by Russian-owned Victoria Gold Star Limited, has a capacity to process 1.2 tonnes of raw gold per month, the company's managing director told Reuters.

Yuri Bogoroditskiy said the company was attracted to Uganda because of its location and relative political stability.

"Uganda is at the centre of the producers of gold: eastern D R Congo, Tanzania, Rwanda and Kenya," Bogoroditskiy said....

Read more:

http://www.newvision.co.ug/D/10/10/718440
young
#334 Posted : Wednesday, May 05, 2010 5:10:35 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,075
Location: Lagos, Nigeria

Uganda = Oil + Gold ?

Hakuna Matata !!!
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
guru267
#335 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2010 6:08:01 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Scubidu wrote:
@guru267. wow, i didn't think u'd respond to movements in international markets so quickly. Is it wise to do that? Seems like way to many variables to factor in to a decision (not including the local factors)


@scubidu i didnt say that i was liquidating all my investments but it would be very wise to reduce your exposure to risk at this stage especially since most of us have made some good money in the past year....

The risk of a sovreign debt crisis throughout Europe is extremely high and the problem here is that if any other one country needs to be bailed out we will have an economic crisis worse than the one 2008-2009... all European markets had another disastrous day yesterday with huge selling pressure....

Though some other analysts view this huge sell off as an over reaction since the nature of the Greek debt is very different from the nature of debt of the rest of Europe hence little chance of other countries defaulting...

The Effect on the NSE will not be terrible especially with companies that have limited or no overseas exposure..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
karanjakinuthia
#336 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2010 7:11:16 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Greece had a choice between a red and blue pill to treat its debt malaise. The red pill has after effects of debt default which equates a swift economic collapse, flight of capital then recovery. The blue pill, a bailout package which includes public sector austerity measures, higher taxes and unemployment; therefore a long protracted depression. It has picked blue.

Consider for a moment, if neither the government nor the private are spending, then who is?

If capital flees Greek stock and debt markets to overseas markets, how will investment flourish?

If both capital expenditure and investment are non-existent, how will the populace obtain employment?

The Euro breached the $1.29 level to the dollar, opening the door to the 1.23 level which was the low in October 2008.

"ATHENS -- Greek protesters set fire to a bank, killing three people, on Wednesday in the most violent reaction to date to the government's austerity plan.

Groups of masked youths hurled petrol bombs, stones and sticks at riot police as nearly 50,000 striking workers and public servants marched to parliament, where a bill dictating pay cuts and tax hikes was due for debate..."

Read more: http://www.financialpost...d=2989213#ixzz0n7t6S4bO

karanjakinuthia
#337 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2010 7:15:25 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
karanjakinuthia
#338 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2010 7:28:20 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Markets are intriguing.

The tremors from the financial crisis have migrated as follows:

Sub-prime real estate -> Investment Banks -> Banks -> All Markets -> Municipalities -> States -> Nations -> Debt Markets -> Banks -> ????

"The spectre of counterparty risk, last seen in dramatic form in the wake of the Lehman collapse, is returning to the European banking sector in an early warning sign that some banks may collapse in the wake of the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis.

Banks are now more reluctant to lend to each other than at any point since the problems of Greece first blew up last October, according to analysts at Tullett Prebon and Icap, the interdealer brokers...."

Read more:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/...49a.html?nclick_check=1

guru267
#339 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2010 12:11:20 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
karanjakinuthia wrote:
Divest in Europe Now!


@KK very true Europe and all countries exposed to europe...

the NSE has had zero reaction and is still headed up but the JSE is not being spared and i find that very wierd
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
karanjakinuthia
#340 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2010 1:45:37 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
@ Guru267. The NSE topped out on 27th of April at 4289 points but is yet to provide an indication of a further rise or decline.

The JSE is much more correlated to the London Stock Exchange due to a sizeable portion of cross-listings.

Fear is the primary force behind market moves at the moment. The invisible hand is nudging market particants towards ports of safety regardless of long term fundamentals (remember 2008?).

Those that brand the current turmoil as a storm in a tea cup have not read their history books. Sovereign Debt Crises are the big kahuna.

A break in a chain-link is often at the weakest point. Greece is Europe's weak link.

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