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How to tell NSE has bottomed out

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youcan'tstopusnow		#661 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 2:00:49 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa		hisah, kwani this downturn has no 'relief rally' or 'oversold positions'? The hammering has been relentless! GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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QW25081985		#662 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 2:09:43 PM
Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani		youcan'tstopusnow wrote: hisah, kwani this downturn has no 'relief rally' or 'oversold positions'? The hammering has been relentless! technically speaking the market has had it 'relief' i remember there was a time we ranged for months on the 3500 support . that in itself is a relief. and that why i said the break of the 3500 level will be very nasty. here's an example what happens when a runner takes a break from running for a short time and then continues to run he runs with even more voguer right ??? yes . and that what the market is goin. it had gotten all the energy it needs while it was ranging and now its falling like a rock. a relief can be a rally or (as happened in this case) it can be a ranging period. so if you ask me this market is very normal and healthy. lets wait for the index at 3k level and pounder our next move .
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Pierce		#663 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 2:10:13 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/16/2009 Posts: 1,464		cnn wrote: Aguytrying wrote: KENOL KOBIL FINALLY TOUCHES 10 BOB. For the first time since going ex- dividend, kenol kobil today traded at 10 shillings. there have been camps in favour and agianst this since it went ex-div. Market players await to see the direction it will take with many calling for "KK's "(as it is fondly known as-in investing circles) head. reporting for wazua news, agtyg. dont gag the media. i have been dancing on other peoples graves,turns out i am also mortal..9 bob is the red line. I like This sound really like the 'end times'. Shall leave my 'entire' KQ holding for Piercelets grandchildren to inherit........year 2085 when it will go back to my break even price 65.
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ecstacy		#664 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 4:10:03 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449		New action Fri/Mon after Obama gives speech on urgent measures to create jobs in the US on Thurs. Can go either way but worse if he doesn't deliver anything solid. Throwing money at the financial woes in 2008 worked, got some relief..now it does look like that won't work and it's not yet clear what will. Germany & Obama's team, it's up to you.
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hisah		#665 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 5:14:27 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		@QW - finally AK prints 5.45. As expected that order @5.55 has been filled. Lower we go and I expect the order @5.30 to get filled. @youcant - KCB closes below 19.50. Uptrend line broken! 18 coming soon... At least NSE can be said to have a target @3000, but NBK... Yawa! This one's hard to say if we are still in the sky and how high! Centum still on a free-fall - I wonder what's with the spooking move... SCB - finally sub 200... but the sista BBK has been hammered more. Ekwety @18 - still no breaks. HFCK - @15.65 still on freefall (almost 50%) dive from the 2011 high. Coop - finally sub 14. Next stop 12... Banks and their cousins investment firms are taking it in the chin... KK - as @aguy said closed @10 with a low of 9.80... people are still waiting for this counter to remain bullish profits were long take @12. I stated this when I started this thread. I expected total to bounce on the rotation, but Mr Market was spooked by the US downgrade. However, I expect total to bounce more than KK when the rebound comes since it is excessively sold than KK. KPLC - @18.40 - well below the rights price @19.50 Olympia - soon to join mpesa at 2-3 range... Speaking of mpesa, today there was a giant volume injection (88M). In 2 days the volume now stands at 122M. This one is building a floor... I don't think such volume is last minute dash for dividends book closure. Very limited downside here. I'd be shocked to see 2.50 broken. Though a break would be welcome. TA fans check the long term SMA's clustering together, if that 50SMA cross the 200SMA, kwisha - cross of death i.e. very bearish... But the RSI is very oversold. Interesting to note that the French index (CAC) is almost like NSE in terms of the SMA clustering... 9 months NSE chart - courtesy mystocks.co.ke http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=%5EN20I $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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youcan'tstopusnow		#666 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 6:06:16 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa		hisah wrote: Centum still on a free-fall - I wonder what's with the spooking move... Ekwety @18 - still no breaks. These 2 may just go on to test sub 15 and 18 respectively. But the volumes are still nothing to write home about GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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hisah		#667 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 6:53:25 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		youcan'tstopusnow wrote: hisah wrote: Centum still on a free-fall - I wonder what's with the spooking move... Ekwety @18 - still no breaks. These 2 may just go on to test sub 15 and 18 respectively. But the volumes are still nothing to write home about @youcant - you lost me here. Which 2 are you referring too? Centum is @15.10 and member @18.00 $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah		#668 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 6:55:04 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		@youcant - oh, I see what you mean. I'm sleepy now so did see the 'sub' statement properly $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah		#669 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 7:58:51 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		Mpesa stock getting bashed by media http://bit.ly/n7YuNj 122M shares traded in 2 days in a bear market approx 366M @3/share excluding commissions etc... Mr Market $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mlennyma		#670 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 8:24:33 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi		Analysts are saying stocks have bottomed but am telling them their guess is just like mine not yet i need more blood. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Sober		#671 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 10:13:04 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604		mlennyma wrote: Analysts are saying stocks have bottomed but am telling them their guess is just like mine not yet i need more blood. when the index hit 3500 i though we were there only to be surprised by a new low. i am now confused and treat every week as a lowest. look at Total Kenya or Pan Africa and you understand what i am saying. African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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the deal		#672 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 11:07:26 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery		sparkly wrote: the deal wrote: To support my Safaricom bellweather theory...last time the NSE bottomed out was Jan 2009...the index was at 2300...Safaricom was at 2.53...the index then gained 1200 points to reach 3500 by October 2010...Safcom was at 5.95...the share seemed to peak at that level although the bourse went on to rally above 4000, the weakness in the momentum was there to see...if u remember there was a mini bear come Nov-Dec this was followed by a sharp rally in January where the NSE picked at 4600...Safaricom was at 4.70...since then Safaricom and NSE has never seen those levels again...so depending where Safaricom's out in the next few month or years thats where the NSE will bottom out...my 2 cents.. @Thedeal is it a case of safcom following the mkt, or the mkt following safcom? Safcon is the trendsetter
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Cde Monomotapa		#673 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 11:53:52 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964		A touch of sub 10 @KK. Any takers?
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Muthawamunene		#674 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 12:23:56 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2011 Posts: 264 Location: Nairobi		thentum?? ekwe tee??
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JabaBoeku		#675 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 12:25:39 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 4/28/2008 Posts: 53		Safcon is the trendsetter! I concur.
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QW25081985		#676 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 12:35:51 PM
Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani		Sober wrote: mlennyma wrote: Analysts are saying stocks have bottomed but am telling them their guess is just like mine not yet i need more blood. when the index hit 3500 i though we were there only to be surprised by a new low. i am now confused and treat every week as a lowest. look at Total Kenya or Pan Africa and you understand what i am saying. @ sober . you just made my ay , lol . you want to tell me everyday you wake up you think we will bottom , lol . You need to learn even if alittle bit of technical analysis . You are investing thousands upon thousand of you hard earned money in the market and you dare guess !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!. No pun intended but thats pretty much careless investing !!!!
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QW25081985		#677 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 12:37:34 PM
Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani		the deal wrote: sparkly wrote: the deal wrote: To support my Safaricom bellweather theory...last time the NSE bottomed out was Jan 2009...the index was at 2300...Safaricom was at 2.53...the index then gained 1200 points to reach 3500 by October 2010...Safcom was at 5.95...the share seemed to peak at that level although the bourse went on to rally above 4000, the weakness in the momentum was there to see...if u remember there was a mini bear come Nov-Dec this was followed by a sharp rally in January where the NSE picked at 4600...Safaricom was at 4.70...since then Safaricom and NSE has never seen those levels again...so depending where Safaricom's out in the next few month or years thats where the NSE will bottom out...my 2 cents.. @Thedeal is it a case of safcom following the mkt, or the mkt following safcom? Safcon is the trendsetter why just safaricom ??? all stocks that are traded heavily by foreigners are good trendsetters .
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QW25081985		#678 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 12:54:50 PM
Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani		hisah wrote: @QW - finally AK prints 5.45. As expected that order @5.55 has been filled. Lower we go and I expect the order @5.30 to get filled. @youcant - KCB closes below 19.50. Uptrend line broken! 18 coming soon... At least NSE can be said to have a target @3000, but NBK... Yawa! This one's hard to say if we are still in the sky and how high! Centum still on a free-fall - I wonder what's with the spooking move... SCB - finally sub 200... but the sista BBK has been hammered more. Ekwety @18 - still no breaks. HFCK - @15.65 still on freefall (almost 50%) dive from the 2011 high. Coop - finally sub 14. Next stop 12... Banks and their cousins investment firms are taking it in the chin... KK - as @aguy said closed @10 with a low of 9.80... people are still waiting for this counter to remain bullish profits were long take @12. I stated this when I started this thread. I expected total to bounce on the rotation, but Mr Market was spooked by the US downgrade. However, I expect total to bounce more than KK when the rebound comes since it is excessively sold than KK. KPLC - @18.40 - well below the rights price @19.50 Olympia - soon to join mpesa at 2-3 range... Speaking of mpesa, today there was a giant volume injection (88M). In 2 days the volume now stands at 122M. This one is building a floor... I don't think such volume is last minute dash for dividends book closure. Very limited downside here. I'd be shocked to see 2.50 broken. Though a break would be welcome. TA fans check the long term SMA's clustering together, if that 50SMA cross the 200SMA, kwisha - cross of death i.e. very bearish... But the RSI is very oversold. Interesting to note that the French index (CAC) is almost like NSE in terms of the SMA clustering... 9 months NSE chart - courtesy mystocks.co.ke http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=%5EN20I No no no no . let me correct you there . Co-ops next stop is ipo price of 9.50 with the break of 14.00 thats how bearish it is. i amnt moved by safaricom before book closure if this buying is real lets wait and see if it'll be there after book closure. Equity still has to print my 13.00 price they will buy to lock in the bargain.. as for access kenya i was targeting 3.00 but with volumes of even 10k per day my dream isnt coming. for KK a close below 10.00 anything goes even those who are calling for 8.00 might get it ..
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vestor		#679 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 1:33:47 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 11/9/2010 Posts: 132		If M-PESA is a trendsetter, are we about to turn around or is this the lull before a storm ? There are no offers on this counter, and the highest bid is at 3.20
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QW25081985		#680 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 1:35:30 PM
Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani		vestor wrote: If M-PESA is a trendsetter, are we about to turn around or is this the lull before a storm ? There are no offers on this counter, and the highest bid is at 3.20 think book closure , my friend .
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