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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Real estate is unravelling as expected. Negative social mood = Bear market = Fall in real estate Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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wukan wrote:sparkly wrote:hisah wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:The market has managed to claw back above the 3300 level. Will be watching closely to see what type of breakout(which I suspect is a fakeout) this is but at least now the bulls have a seat at the table as they duke it out with the bears...previously it was all bear territory. Bulls driven by the less than calamitous haircuts on banks' earnings.
This is keeping up with the global trend:US stocks retracing (European, emerging and frontier markets rallying), same as the dollar index and bond yields tanking. Markets however are fickle, all it takes is a single risk event to wipe out those gains. The more worrying scenario however which I think is the case for 2017 is that the markets are coiling before the real moves. How long this coiling occurs is the likely length of the window for this NSE20 bull and many others - likely to last no more than a few months at best.
The real move looks to be dollar up, yields up(this will be very nasty and violent) and probably US stocks up at least on the 1 year horizon. Obviously the first two trends spell doom for all of European, emerging and frontier markets(including KE). This is not a trend KE can untether itself from.
As long the coiling is taking place, NSE20 will rally but when it reverses be prepared for a bloodbath. The 2017 reversals have been an almighty effort to erase the 2016 tanking in the aftermath of Brexit. The market is failing to form the double bottom or triple bottom which would give a solid bull. In a double bottom scenario market should have re-tested the 2700 levels to shake out the last optimists. A current rally on this pattern takes us to around 4500 around the year 2020 which coincidentally is also the around the time when most the super-tall skyscrapers top out. Enjoy the ride  Look at the chart keenly and notice the double bottom...  True, double bottom of sorts if one looks at 2011/2 and 2016/7. The alternative wave count triple bottom theory. The 2700 level re-tested to around 2645. This is an interesting area to watch the market. Quote:State officials have remained mum on a new appointment or renewal of the governor’s term, which is critical for policy predictability.
The governor’s term is renewable only once, in line with the law.
“You know I could spend all my day on the phone waiting for a phone call; that doesn’t help. Let me get the work done. There is so much to be done and if on that day I have to walk away from the job, that’s fine. It’s not the end of the world, the institution will remain,” said Dr Njoroge. https://www.businessdail...116-10uwubyz/index.html
 Monk does not like speculators Quote:“I never worry about these things. You cannot worry about things that you can’t change. I worry more about the things that are in my control. That is the only thing that matters, and in effect in terms of speculating, I have learnt that speculation doesn’t always lead you anywhere. If anything, it raises your anxiety level and I do want my blood level to be sort of more or less same, not spiking every now and then,” he told reporters. I see no double bottom. Instead I expect the NSE 20 share index to accelerate more downward. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,654
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wukan wrote:sparkly wrote:hisah wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:The market has managed to claw back above the 3300 level. Will be watching closely to see what type of breakout(which I suspect is a fakeout) this is but at least now the bulls have a seat at the table as they duke it out with the bears...previously it was all bear territory. Bulls driven by the less than calamitous haircuts on banks' earnings.
This is keeping up with the global trend:US stocks retracing (European, emerging and frontier markets rallying), same as the dollar index and bond yields tanking. Markets however are fickle, all it takes is a single risk event to wipe out those gains. The more worrying scenario however which I think is the case for 2017 is that the markets are coiling before the real moves. How long this coiling occurs is the likely length of the window for this NSE20 bull and many others - likely to last no more than a few months at best.
The real move looks to be dollar up, yields up(this will be very nasty and violent) and probably US stocks up at least on the 1 year horizon. Obviously the first two trends spell doom for all of European, emerging and frontier markets(including KE). This is not a trend KE can untether itself from.
As long the coiling is taking place, NSE20 will rally but when it reverses be prepared for a bloodbath. The 2017 reversals have been an almighty effort to erase the 2016 tanking in the aftermath of Brexit. The market is failing to form the double bottom or triple bottom which would give a solid bull. In a double bottom scenario market should have re-tested the 2700 levels to shake out the last optimists. A current rally on this pattern takes us to around 4500 around the year 2020 which coincidentally is also the around the time when most the super-tall skyscrapers top out. Enjoy the ride Look at the chart keenly and notice the double bottom... True, double bottom of sorts if one looks at 2011/2 and 2016/7. The alternative wave count triple bottom theory. The 2700 level re-tested to around 2645. This is an interesting area to watch the market. Quote:State officials have remained mum on a new appointment or renewal of the governor’s term, which is critical for policy predictability.
The governor’s term is renewable only once, in line with the law.
“You know I could spend all my day on the phone waiting for a phone call; that doesn’t help. Let me get the work done. There is so much to be done and if on that day I have to walk away from the job, that’s fine. It’s not the end of the world, the institution will remain,” said Dr Njoroge. https://www.businessdail...116-10uwubyz/index.html
Monk does not like speculators Quote:“I never worry about these things. You cannot worry about things that you can’t change. I worry more about the things that are in my control. That is the only thing that matters, and in effect in terms of speculating, I have learnt that speculation doesn’t always lead you anywhere. If anything, it raises your anxiety level and I do want my blood level to be sort of more or less same, not spiking every now and then,” he told reporters. 4 more years. Speculators let us meet behind the tent Quote:“In exercise of the powers conferred to me by section 13 (2) of the Central Bank of Kenya Act, I Uhuru Kenyatta President and Commander of the Republic of Kenya Defence Forces re-appoint Patrick Ngugi Njoroge to be the governor of the Central Bank of Kenya for a period of four years with effect from the 11th June 2019,” said President Kenyatta.
Dr Njoroge, 58, will now serve until June 2023.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,654
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mnandii wrote:Real estate is unravelling as expected. Negative social mood = Bear market = Fall in real estate High end real estate is getting torched.After the requirement for registration of expatriates things have gone south. Affordable housing will torch most middle income rentals. Landlords will be burnt to recognition. Machakos county Mavoko Quote:PROPOSED MIXED USE DEVELOPMENT COMPRISING 26 BLOCKS OF 16 STOREY APARTMENTS, 2 BLOCKS OF 20 STOREY APARTMENTS AND 2 BLOCKS OF STRATA-LANDED CLUB HOUSES (TOTAL 8828 UNITS) WITH 60 COMMERCIAL SHOPS AT GROUND FLOOR OF THE 20 STOREY BUILDINGS, 1 BASEMENT CAR PARK AT EVERY BLOCK APART FROM THE CLUBHOUSE.
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/15/2008 Posts: 238
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So, cash is still King (👑)? Where's the stashed cash that demonetization was to expose? We should have started seeing the effects. Or is this a case of lip service and all the big kahunas had already turned their money to hard currencies like the dollar. Or maybe used the money to buy out other companies like KQ, NIC, et al Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 1/15/2019 Posts: 33
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Government is in the position to burst economy, but it can also impact negative trends in one business segments. So, I see this situation. There is regulation that is probably unfavourable for many people, this is why many decided to move this business to other areas. Who is gaining then?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote: For wave [c] of Y (see extreme right), we have completed green labelled waves (i)(ii)(iii) and (iv). The market appears to be now falling in a fifth wave (v) and is in fact accelerating downwards. The distance between the end of wave (iv) @ about 3070 and my upper target of 1700 appears too long which could imply that wave (v) will extend. Additionally this also raises the possibility that wave [c] of Y (and the index at large) may bottom at the upper target of 1700 and not further below. Using Fibonacci ratios(the guideline is that wave one through to the end of wave three should be in golden ratio proportions to wave five) then: Wave (i) to (iii) = approx. 4060 - 2745 = 1315. Targets using this guideline are: 1. 3065 {end of wave (iv)} - (0.5 X 1315) = 24082. 3065 {end of wave (iv)} - (0.618 X 1315) = 22523. 3065 {end of wave (iv)} - (1 X 1315) = 1750 Near our other target. 4. 3065 {end of wave (iv)} - (1.618 X 1315) = 937 which is very unlikely. Back in May, 2019 Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 Mayoo! She's accelerating DOWNWARD! And some people think that stocks are at a bargain? That it's time to buy?    Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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And I hear there are many distressed properties in the market now. Back in 2015s when I made a relation btw the stock market and real estate (I made a prediction that if the NSE 20 share index falls significantly then we were to expect a similar drop in real estate) no one believed. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/8/2018 Posts: 507 Location: Nairobi
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mnandii wrote: Mayoo! She's accelerating DOWNWARD! And some people think that stocks are at a bargain? That it's time to buy? NSE slide sees dividend beat Treasury bill yieldsQuote:
The prevailing yields on the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day T-bills stand at 6.59 percent, 7.37 percent and 8.99 percent respectively. NSE data shows as per Monday’s share prices, 17 firms had dividend yields that were at least matching or beating the lowest T-bill rate.
The rise in the dividend yields (dividend per share as a percentage of share price) is as a result of falling share prices at the NSE, with the benchmark NSE 20 share index trading at nine-year lows at 2646 points.
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Five out of the 11 listed banks have a dividend yield that is at least higher than the lowest T-bill yield of the 91-day paper, withBarclays Kenya (10.48 percent) and Standard Chartered (9.69 percent) offering a higher yield than the one-year T-bills.
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Other firms offering a dividend yield higher than the one-year T-bill include Kapchorua Tea at 10.93 percent, Williamson Tea at 12.16 percent, Nation Media Group at 10.78 percent, Umeme at 10.13 percent and Kenya Re at 11.31 percent.
ScanGroup has the highest dividend yield in the market at 34.78 percent, but this is on account of a special dividend of Sh3 per share that declared in April on top of an ordinary dividend of Sh1 per share.
Some of the firms offering high dividend yields have seen their share prices tumble in spite of recording a good financial performance. They have been dragged down by the overall bearish sentiment in the market.
As you wait to perfectly time the bottom, let the rest of us begin taking bits off the market. If it continues heading south, we'll increase buying margins. Either way, buying season is here.
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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