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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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And when the Ugali isn't sufficient for me & family...wageni wajipange - Kenyan Embassy in US advises Kenyans who may be impacted by expected immigration reforms http://www.jambonewspot....ted-immigration-reforms Bright side? Brain-drain reversal [Re-calling the troops]
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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@Hisah, I do see the arbitrage. Gold is perhaps the most emotive market on the planet. It speaks to the heart of history and stability of government. Swings such as those witnessed since August 2011 are reminiscent of the 2006 and 2008 pauses which at the time got the gold bears out from the woods. Markets do their utmost to ensure that they shake out as many players as possible on their way to their maximum price point. Gold miners have the habit to playing catch-up like little sister, silver, appreciating by several multiples as gold ascends. We have to see what holds for gold on 4th of March and 22nd of March, 2013. hisah wrote:@kk - do you see the arbitrage presented by that gold spot vs gold miners spread...  The gold slugging headlines are back on the mainstream media. 'gold is a bubble', 'gold tech readings experience the 'cross of death' hinting more downside risks' etc. Gold fear is back and weak retail hands are being smoked out (capitulation) as they run for the hills. A cursory scan shows fewer hedge funds are in gold now than pre GFC. Yet the lamestream media calls it a bubble. But going by the vol spike in silver as $29 floor broke down on Wed, it's easy to predict someone is accumulating. That vol spike was similar to that time when silver rallied from $26 to $50. Points to remember, a large VIX call options contract expiring in April as well as XLF, but a put option were purchased in Feb. Someone expects some big market volatility between now and April. Btw that Calif tax article you posted above is a sure way of killing state revenues for CA. Horrible tax move it is.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:hisah wrote:Breaking just now - MOODY'S STRIPS THE UK OF ITS AAA RATING http://www.businessinsid...f-its-aaa-rating-2013-2 So Moody's has downgraded the UK. Will the UK sue them like its US sister did to S&P while banning Egan Jones from rating any junk debt (gubberment bonds) issued by the crumbling gubberment debt printing machine. Interesting but as long as all the Allies in Ideology & Commerce [USD, GBP, EUR, JPY] remain unstable, there's nothing 'stable' about the rating outlook(s). You might also consider ZAR shorts too. Quick fix? Cut deal with Iran, lift sanctions letting oil flow again breaking the 'supply constraints' charade in the mkts to ease the indirect tax & burden on main-street which by extension stems the rate of econ. decline but err.... Over to B.O & Co. Too proud to cut a deal with the Iranians.
As for ZAR, I flagged it last year and made some with ZARUSD hitting 9.00. I still expect it to test 9.50 or worse 10 this year due to their econ shrinking esp exports & imported inflation spike. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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karanjakinuthia wrote:@Hisah, I do see the arbitrage. Gold is perhaps the most emotive market on the planet. It speaks to the heart of history and stability of government. Swings such as those witnessed since August 2011 are reminiscent of the 2006 and 2008 pauses which at the time got the gold bears out from the woods. Markets do their utmost to ensure that they shake out as many players as possible on their way to their maximum price point. Gold miners have the habit to playing catch-up like little sister, silver, appreciating by several multiples as gold ascends. We have to see what holds for gold on 4th of March and 22nd of March, 2013. hisah wrote:@kk - do you see the arbitrage presented by that gold spot vs gold miners spread... The gold slugging headlines are back on the mainstream media. 'gold is a bubble', 'gold tech readings experience the 'cross of death' hinting more downside risks' etc. Gold fear is back and weak retail hands are being smoked out (capitulation) as they run for the hills. A cursory scan shows fewer hedge funds are in gold now than pre GFC. Yet the lamestream media calls it a bubble. But going by the vol spike in silver as $29 floor broke down on Wed, it's easy to predict someone is accumulating. That vol spike was similar to that time when silver rallied from $26 to $50. Points to remember, a large VIX call options contract expiring in April as well as XLF, but a put option were purchased in Feb. Someone expects some big market volatility between now and April. Btw that Calif tax article you posted above is a sure way of killing state revenues for CA. Horrible tax move it is. This makes it for the gold trade.
http://bullmarketthinkin...d-silver-mining-shares/
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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hisah wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:hisah wrote:Breaking just now - MOODY'S STRIPS THE UK OF ITS AAA RATING http://www.businessinsid...f-its-aaa-rating-2013-2 So Moody's has downgraded the UK. Will the UK sue them like its US sister did to S&P while banning Egan Jones from rating any junk debt (gubberment bonds) issued by the crumbling gubberment debt printing machine. Interesting but as long as all the Allies in Ideology & Commerce [USD, GBP, EUR, JPY] remain unstable, there's nothing 'stable' about the rating outlook(s). You might also consider ZAR shorts too. Quick fix? Cut deal with Iran, lift sanctions letting oil flow again breaking the 'supply constraints' charade in the mkts to ease the indirect tax & burden on main-street which by extension stems the rate of econ. decline but err.... Over to B.O & Co. Too proud to cut a deal with the Iranians.
As for ZAR, I flagged it last year and made some with ZARUSD hitting 9.00. I still expect it to test 9.50 or worse 10 this year due to their econ shrinking esp exports & imported inflation spike. Great on the ZAR...and if we can see some more Allied GDP bloopers over FY '13 then the Agencies might be on RSA case again; then it's to knock it out the ball park - near Junk. NB: Last year's flurry of RSA down-grades were the 1st since 1994 ('Independence'). Mafwend...the socio-politico-economic world is on a delicate balance...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:hisah wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:hisah wrote:Breaking just now - MOODY'S STRIPS THE UK OF ITS AAA RATING http://www.businessinsid...f-its-aaa-rating-2013-2 So Moody's has downgraded the UK. Will the UK sue them like its US sister did to S&P while banning Egan Jones from rating any junk debt (gubberment bonds) issued by the crumbling gubberment debt printing machine. Interesting but as long as all the Allies in Ideology & Commerce [USD, GBP, EUR, JPY] remain unstable, there's nothing 'stable' about the rating outlook(s). You might also consider ZAR shorts too. Quick fix? Cut deal with Iran, lift sanctions letting oil flow again breaking the 'supply constraints' charade in the mkts to ease the indirect tax & burden on main-street which by extension stems the rate of econ. decline but err.... Over to B.O & Co. Too proud to cut a deal with the Iranians.
As for ZAR, I flagged it last year and made some with ZARUSD hitting 9.00. I still expect it to test 9.50 or worse 10 this year due to their econ shrinking esp exports & imported inflation spike. Great on the ZAR...and if we can see some more Allied GDP bloopers over FY '13 then the Agencies might be on RSA case again; then it's to knock it out the ball park - near Junk. NB: Last year's flurry of RSA down-grades were the 1st since 1994 ('Independence'). Mafwend...the socio-politico-economic world is on a delicate balance... Greece ran out of stimulus 4yrs after hosting Olympics. SA hosted the world cup and the 4yr stimulus drain cycle is due by 2014. Will they auction those ghost stadia to foot the bill...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:hisah wrote:Breaking just now - MOODY'S STRIPS THE UK OF ITS AAA RATING http://www.businessinsid...f-its-aaa-rating-2013-2 So Moody's has downgraded the UK. Will the UK sue them like its US sister did to S&P while banning Egan Jones from rating any junk debt (gubberment bonds) issued by the crumbling gubberment debt printing machine. Interesting but as long as all the Allies in Ideology & Commerce [USD, GBP, EUR, JPY] remain unstable, there's nothing 'stable' about the rating outlook(s). You might also consider ZAR shorts too. Quick fix? Cut deal with Iran, lift sanctions letting oil flow again breaking the 'supply constraints' charade in the mkts to ease the indirect tax & burden on main-street which by extension stems the rate of econ. decline but err.... Over to B.O & Co. Too proud to cut a deal with the Iranians.
As for ZAR, I flagged it last year and made some with ZARUSD hitting 9.00. I still expect it to test 9.50 or worse 10 this year due to their econ shrinking esp exports & imported inflation spike. @hisah you see 10 on the USD/ZAR but you only see a maximum of 90 on the USD/KES?? I thought we are more exposed than they are to economic shocks! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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guru267 wrote:hisah wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:hisah wrote:Breaking just now - MOODY'S STRIPS THE UK OF ITS AAA RATING http://www.businessinsid...f-its-aaa-rating-2013-2 So Moody's has downgraded the UK. Will the UK sue them like its US sister did to S&P while banning Egan Jones from rating any junk debt (gubberment bonds) issued by the crumbling gubberment debt printing machine. Interesting but as long as all the Allies in Ideology & Commerce [USD, GBP, EUR, JPY] remain unstable, there's nothing 'stable' about the rating outlook(s). You might also consider ZAR shorts too. Quick fix? Cut deal with Iran, lift sanctions letting oil flow again breaking the 'supply constraints' charade in the mkts to ease the indirect tax & burden on main-street which by extension stems the rate of econ. decline but err.... Over to B.O & Co. Too proud to cut a deal with the Iranians.
As for ZAR, I flagged it last year and made some with ZARUSD hitting 9.00. I still expect it to test 9.50 or worse 10 this year due to their econ shrinking esp exports & imported inflation spike. @hisah you see 10 on the USD/ZAR but you only see a maximum of 90 on the USD/KES?? I thought we are more exposed than they are to economic shocks! Forex is an interesting casino 
KES smashing contest was back in 2011. Nobody expected it... Unless KE goes into chaos, KES smackdown is not likely. And the fact that mainstreet (wanjikus) expect it (herd mentality), it's a zero trade! And now CBK is desperate, they'll go rogue if attacked. Don't fight the CB until WB gives the greenlight.
In SA I continue to see the opposite of KE. Downgrades, labour wars (miners), world cup stimulus emptying etc. Nobody expects it... Watch JSE nosedive at some point. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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With the looming KE power bill hikes by KPLC, which will definitely spike inflation, if it were Bulgaria this is what would happen - http://www.guardiannews....rnment-resigns-protests Quote:Bulgaria's government has resigned from office
on Wednesday/yesterday after nationwide
protests against high electricity prices and
austerity measures. The prime minister, Boiko Borisov, had tried to
calm protests by sacking his finance minister and
pledging to cut power prices and punish
foreign-owned companies, but the moves failed
to defuse discontent, and demonstrations
continued on Tuesday. Many Bulgarians are deeply unhappy about high
energy costs, power monopolies, low living
standards and corruption in the European
Union's poorest country.
Borisov has said the electricity distribution
licence of central Europe's largest listed
company, Czech-based CEZ will be revoked,
setting Bulgaria on a collision course with the
Czech Republic.
Power distribution in Bulgaria is controlled by two Czech firms and one Austrian one. Protests continued even after Finance Minister/ Deputy Prime Minister Djankov fell on his own sword, resigning February 18. Dj ankov is a former
World Bank economist and kept Borisov on the
strictly orthodox policy path. This Bulgaria story reminds me of Bolivia water bill revolt vs Bechtel that brought down the govt back then. http://earthjustice.org/...livia-water-revolt-case
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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@hisah and all - How are things in the global markets. Equities,currencies,interest rates,defaults,gold/silver...Highly appreciated.Have been following the posts but haven't been tracking the global scene this year. Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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