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Realities of Forex Investment
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hisah
#3091 Posted : Sunday, February 01, 2015 1:41:59 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
Ceinz wrote:
He he he! gotta love the beautiful currency moves. Gu so far played by the book, and now at support but bear to resume.
For now that gold is a long, no doubt about that.
And yen is just crazy, I don't trust that fall. I expect next week and the one after to be bull.

I like such crazy volatility. Whiplash markets easily expose the one trick traders/hedge funds/fund managers as they get knocked out. Volatility is a necessity to weed out weak hands that find it hard to stand a shakeout.

Strangely midterm bullish structure is still intact in equities unless they slide 20% or lower like a number of commodos. The recent vol spike in spx is similar to the spike back in Aug 2011. I expect equities to resume uptrend, test the highs and rump above in 2015.

Closed the Dow and FTSE shorts since objectives met - Dow went down more that my 1000pts target and FTSE also cratered below my 6200 target. Trades were active since Sept 23rd.

- GBP$ has played as expected.
- Oil (WTI) to has cratered to $80 target.
- JPY has been quite stubborn.
- Aussie and kiwi still weighed down by commodo bears.
- Gold if it can retest 1180, leak below to test 1080-1100 that's the time I can call it a long for a year... For now seems like a bounce until it breaks above 1400.

- Next big commodo trade is cocoa. Below 3000 handle is inviting sizable shorts.

Stated back in Oct 17 2014. Hope guys jumped into that cocoa futures bear corner.

Cocoa Enters Bear Market as Chocolate Addiction Tempers

In comes the headline 3 months later after a 21% drop. The extreme buying (bulls) had been well fattened...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Ceinz
#3092 Posted : Sunday, February 01, 2015 7:42:59 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
hisah wrote:
Ceinz wrote:
Trade Idea;

Short Usd/Chf c. 0.93/0.96 Sl 0.98
Target: 0.84


Been looking at the CHF futures and I think the SNB panic is overdone! If my observation is right the CHF crosses will retrace all their losses post SNB!

Caution being long CHF on the long term.



Indeed looks like CHF is going back to the peg levels, but this will not be a smooth ride, I foresee nice shorting opportunities around 0.96 levels(usdchf). These are the moves that I will be eyeing.
“small step for man”
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Ceinz
#3093 Posted : Tuesday, February 10, 2015 4:31:02 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
USD/CHF spotting some triangle. This should see the uptrend continue towards 0.95 levels.
“small step for man”
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shrewdinvestor
#3094 Posted : Tuesday, February 10, 2015 9:24:46 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/12/2014
Posts: 120
Location: Nyali
@Hisah and other venerated wazua veterans..I am now officially in forex investment and learning the ropes pole pole..what is your advice for a novice like me....best broker and reasonable amount to begin with.
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hisah
#3095 Posted : Thursday, February 12, 2015 7:02:18 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
shrewdinvestor wrote:
@Hisah and other venerated wazua veterans..I am now officially in forex investment and learning the ropes pole pole..what is your advice for a novice like me....best broker and reasonable amount to begin with.

Since the swiss national bank crashed the euro peg vs swiss franc some brokers went bust. It's a bit murky now to discern the retail brokers that are indeed fit after that liquidity shock.

I'm still in shock that alpari uk went bust. Another big broker - fxcm had to be bailed out. Read about this storm to gauge your risk.

For beginners my picks are fxpro and alpari (though now its bust). Open a demo account so that you test their service. Then open a micro live account so that you test with say $100 to feel the real market. Take your time to learn the market. The longer the better so that you test many scenarios to fine tune your trading plan. Fx is volatile so risks are high. For a large account > $10K my preference is saxobank.

While learning fx, not to take a trade ('sitting on your hands') is the most difficult skill to master. This is because it's difficult to control your emotion. Another important skill that one must master.

Next important thing is risk management. Risk around 5% of your capital as a trade position to minimize huge losses coz of leverage. Read about margin call.

The other thing you need to be aware of is the market is manipulated. Over time you start seeing the patterns (false moves) especially during news events and market cross open (fix windows) i.e. Asia close/Europe open or Europe close/US open or US close/Asia open.


Nobody likes taking losses, but for beginners I prefer they experience losses in order to face their emotions barrier. Then risk management kicks in. Once you learn how to manage losses, profits start adding up.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#3096 Posted : Thursday, February 12, 2015 7:12:18 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
GBP$ short not working out. Will keep it for a few more days. If 1.5150 breaks down I'll keep the position.

Took USDJPY long in asia session @120.11. Long term scope points to 129 as the target.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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shrewdinvestor
#3097 Posted : Thursday, February 12, 2015 8:14:34 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/12/2014
Posts: 120
Location: Nyali
hisah wrote:
shrewdinvestor wrote:
@Hisah and other venerated wazua veterans..I am now officially in forex investment and learning the ropes pole pole..what is your advice for a novice like me....best broker and reasonable amount to begin with.

Since the swiss national bank crashed the euro peg vs swiss franc some brokers went bust. It's a bit murky now to discern the retail brokers that are indeed fit after that liquidity shock.

I'm still in shock that alpari uk went bust. Another big broker - fxcm had to be bailed out. Read about this storm to gauge your risk.

For beginners my picks are fxpro and alpari (though now its bust). Open a demo account so that you test their service. Then open a micro live account so that you test with say $100 to feel the real market. Take your time to learn the market. The longer the better so that you test many scenarios to fine tune your trading plan. Fx is volatile so risks are high. For a large account > $10K my preference is saxobank.

While learning fx, not to take a trade ('sitting on your hands') is the most difficult skill to master. This is because it's difficult to control your emotion. Another important skill that one must master.

Next important thing is risk management. Risk around 5% of your capital as a trade position to minimize huge losses coz of leverage. Read about margin call.

The other thing you need to be aware of is the market is manipulated. Over time you start seeing the patterns (false moves) especially during news events and market cross open (fix windows) i.e. Asia close/Europe open or Europe close/US open or US close/Asia open.


Nobody likes taking losses, but for beginners I prefer they experience losses in order to face their emotions barrier. Then risk management kicks in. Once you learn how to manage losses, profits start adding up.

Thank you very much for your insight Hisah..its really an eye opener.Now I have a demo with OctaFx demo..i would also like to know about the best currency combinations..currently I am doing EUR/USD,GBP/USD and USD/JPY.I would also like your view on copy trading such as use of a signal...otherwise thank you very much!
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shrewdinvestor
#3098 Posted : Thursday, February 12, 2015 8:18:19 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/12/2014
Posts: 120
Location: Nyali
hisah wrote:
GBP$ short not working out. Will keep it for a few more days. If 1.5150 breaks down I'll keep the position.

Took USDJPY long in asia session @120.11. Long term scope points to 129 as the target.

Yeah all indicators point to a very bullish USD/JPY.It has already reached a 5 week high of 120.5..seems there is more room for a rise.I am in.
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Ceinz
#3099 Posted : Thursday, February 12, 2015 8:55:01 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
hisah wrote:


Open a demo account so that you test their service. Then open a micro live account so that you test with say $100 to feel the real market. Take your time to learn the market. The longer the better so that you test many scenarios to fine tune your trading plan. Fx is volatile so risks are high. For a large account > $10K my preference is saxobank.

While learning fx, not to take a trade ('sitting on your hands') is the most difficult skill to master. This is because it's difficult to control your emotion. Another important skill that one must master.

Next important thing is risk management. Risk around 5% of your capital as a trade position to minimize huge losses coz of leverage. Read about margin call.

The other thing you need to be aware of is the market is manipulated. Over time you start seeing the patterns (false moves) especially during news events and market cross open (fix windows) i.e. Asia close/Europe open or Europe close/US open or US close/Asia open.


Nobody likes taking losses, but for beginners I prefer they experience losses in order to face their emotions barrier. Then risk management kicks in. Once you learn how to manage losses, profits start adding up.


Applause

Couldn't agree more.
“small step for man”
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, February 12, 2015 8:57 AM | Reason: Not specified
hisah
#3100 Posted : Thursday, February 12, 2015 9:42:38 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@shrewd - for beginners liquid pairs like eurusd, gbpusd are good to begin with before moving to the others since they offer many trading opportunities. Exotic pairs should come later since their spreads are quite wide as well as rollover charges and can be very volatile during illiquid periods. Not recommended for a small account.

As you gain confidence you'll meet gbpjpy aka gebby aka the beast. Trading this cross is quite profitable and also can fry your account in the same breath! This cross tends to move by many pips. During volatile periods avoid it as a learner if you haven't learnt how to ride the beast.

Also different market sessions move currencies differently. Asia moves asia zone currencies the most, europe moves eurozone currencies the most and US moves the USD, CAD and latin america currencies the most. Eventually you'll have to pick a market that best suits you. Geo location will also determine the market as per timezone.

I've never used copy trading so I cant discuss it.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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