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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,255 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. See how this guy makes wazuans miss out on the right buses Lipstick on a pig. Nothing has changed. If not today then tomorrow. Good luck. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/26/2015 Posts: 151
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. See how this guy makes wazuans miss out on the right buses Lipstick on a pig. Nothing has changed. If not today then tomorrow. Good luck. This is one stock where you veer from your fact based approach. Is it the management you don't trust or is it just irrational bias?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,997 Location: Kitale
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MadDoc wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:[quote=obiero][quote=VituVingiSana]There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. See how this guy makes wazuans miss out on the right buses Stick to your goals.As long as you are getting what you want its fine.Change when things are not going your way.Above all LEARN daily.it will be fine with you. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,889 Location: nairobi
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Ebenyo wrote:MadDoc wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:[quote=obiero][quote=VituVingiSana]There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. See how this guy makes wazuans miss out on the right buses Stick to your goals.As long as you are getting what you want its fine.Change when things are not going your way.Above all LEARN daily.it will be fine with you. Soo true
COOP ABP 15.85; IMH ABP 35.55; KQ ABP 5.76; MTN ABP 5.20
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,255 Location: Nairobi
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MadDoc wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. See how this guy makes wazuans miss out on the right buses Lipstick on a pig. Nothing has changed. If not today then tomorrow. Good luck. This is one stock where you veer from your fact based approach. Is it the management you don't trust or is it just irrational bias? Management & GoK's influence.Except for KenRe I stay away from GoK firms. It's a gut feeling. I may be wrong. It's not like Safcom (run by Vodafone) where it's the only choice in a rapidly growing sector. I have choices like Equity, NIC, I&M, StanChart, BBK, Co-op, etc. For obvious reasons I don't have NBK on the list. Good luck! After losing money in KQ, any firm in which GoK has a significant stake needs to be looked at twice. Perhaps my "fear of GoK" is irrational but so far it has saved me lots of money post-KQ. EAPCC vs Bamburi (even ARM > EAPCC). NBK vs any listed bank. The list is long but includes Uchumi, KPLC and KenGen. There's always an undercurrent that concerns me. Inflated tenders, political godfathers, favored appointments, etc. I have explained why I stick with KenRe in other threads BUT a whiff of stink and I will bail. The saving grace for KCB is its TBTF status and GoK/KCB will step in to protect it by bending the rules or offering equity/loans. But I like to sleep at night. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,889 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:MadDoc wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. See how this guy makes wazuans miss out on the right buses Lipstick on a pig. Nothing has changed. If not today then tomorrow. Good luck. This is one stock where you veer from your fact based approach. Is it the management you don't trust or is it just irrational bias? Management & GoK's influence.Except for KenRe I stay away from GoK firms. It's a gut feeling. I may be wrong. It's not like Safcom (run by Vodafone) where it's the only choice in a rapidly growing sector. I have choices like Equity, NIC, I&M, StanChart, BBK, Co-op, etc. For obvious reasons I don't have NBK on the list. Good luck! After losing money in KQ, any firm in which GoK has a significant stake needs to be looked at twice. Perhaps my "fear of GoK" is irrational but so far it has saved me lots of money post-KQ. EAPCC vs Bamburi (even ARM > EAPCC). NBK vs any listed bank. The list is long but includes Uchumi, KPLC and KenGen. There's always an undercurrent that concerns me. Inflated tenders, political godfathers, favored appointments, etc. I have explained why I stick with KenRe in other threads BUT a whiff of stink and I will bail. The saving grace for KCB is its TBTF status and GoK/KCB will step in to protect it by bending the rules or offering equity/loans. But I like to sleep at night. Safaricom??
COOP ABP 15.85; IMH ABP 35.55; KQ ABP 5.76; MTN ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,786 Location: NAIROBI
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MadDoc wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. See how this guy makes wazuans miss out on the right buses Lipstick on a pig. Nothing has changed. If not today then tomorrow. Good luck. This is one stock where you veer from your fact based approach. Is it the management you don't trust or is it just irrational bias? Management & GoK's influence.Except for KenRe I stay away from GoK firms. It's a gut feeling. I may be wrong. It's not like Safcom (run by Vodafone) where it's the only choice in a rapidly growing sector. I have choices like Equity, NIC, I&M, StanChart, BBK, Co-op, etc. For obvious reasons I don't have NBK on the list. Good luck! After losing money in KQ, any firm in which GoK has a significant stake needs to be looked at twice. Perhaps my "fear of GoK" is irrational but so far it has saved me lots of money post-KQ. EAPCC vs Bamburi (even ARM > EAPCC). NBK vs any listed bank. The list is long but includes Uchumi, KPLC and KenGen. There's always an undercurrent that concerns me. Inflated tenders, political godfathers, favored appointments, etc. I have explained why I stick with KenRe in other threads BUT a whiff of stink and I will bail. The saving grace for KCB is its TBTF status and GoK/KCB will step in to protect it by bending the rules or offering equity/loans. But I like to sleep at night. Safaricom?? I agree with you Obiero GoK influence in safaricom is much greater than in KCB- and kenya re @vvs TBTF means what Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,889 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MadDoc wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. See how this guy makes wazuans miss out on the right buses Lipstick on a pig. Nothing has changed. If not today then tomorrow. Good luck. This is one stock where you veer from your fact based approach. Is it the management you don't trust or is it just irrational bias? Management & GoK's influence.Except for KenRe I stay away from GoK firms. It's a gut feeling. I may be wrong. It's not like Safcom (run by Vodafone) where it's the only choice in a rapidly growing sector. I have choices like Equity, NIC, I&M, StanChart, BBK, Co-op, etc. For obvious reasons I don't have NBK on the list. Good luck! After losing money in KQ, any firm in which GoK has a significant stake needs to be looked at twice. Perhaps my "fear of GoK" is irrational but so far it has saved me lots of money post-KQ. EAPCC vs Bamburi (even ARM > EAPCC). NBK vs any listed bank. The list is long but includes Uchumi, KPLC and KenGen. There's always an undercurrent that concerns me. Inflated tenders, political godfathers, favored appointments, etc. I have explained why I stick with KenRe in other threads BUT a whiff of stink and I will bail. The saving grace for KCB is its TBTF status and GoK/KCB will step in to protect it by bending the rules or offering equity/loans. But I like to sleep at night. Safaricom?? I agree with you Obiero GoK influence in safaricom is much greater than in KCB- and kenya re @vvs TBTF means what Too big to fail
COOP ABP 15.85; IMH ABP 35.55; KQ ABP 5.76; MTN ABP 5.20
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MadDoc wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. See how this guy makes wazuans miss out on the right buses Lipstick on a pig. Nothing has changed. If not today then tomorrow. Good luck. This is one stock where you veer from your fact based approach. Is it the management you don't trust or is it just irrational bias? Management & GoK's influence.Except for KenRe I stay away from GoK firms. It's a gut feeling. I may be wrong. It's not like Safcom (run by Vodafone) where it's the only choice in a rapidly growing sector. I have choices like Equity, NIC, I&M, StanChart, BBK, Co-op, etc. For obvious reasons I don't have NBK on the list. Good luck! After losing money in KQ, any firm in which GoK has a significant stake needs to be looked at twice. Perhaps my "fear of GoK" is irrational but so far it has saved me lots of money post-KQ. EAPCC vs Bamburi (even ARM > EAPCC). NBK vs any listed bank. The list is long but includes Uchumi, KPLC and KenGen. There's always an undercurrent that concerns me. Inflated tenders, political godfathers, favored appointments, etc. I have explained why I stick with KenRe in other threads BUT a whiff of stink and I will bail. The saving grace for KCB is its TBTF status and GoK/KCB will step in to protect it by bending the rules or offering equity/loans. But I like to sleep at night. Safaricom?? I agree with you Obiero GoK influence in safaricom is much greater than in KCB- and kenya re @vvs TBTF means what Too big to fail I disagree on level of GoK influence being higher in safaricom than GoK. Reason being Vodafone has by far a greater influence (CEO and CFO are vodafone appointees). Why? Because in safaricom, GoK is the second largest shareholder after vodafone and that is why vodafone are calling the shots. Meanwhile at KCB, GoK is the largest shareholder followed by NSSF. So GoK calls the shots here, including all top management. My view is therefore that GoK has a greater influence at KCB than at safaricom. That said I also disagree with @vvs on staying away from GoK firms (except Kenya Re). There are a few more GoK firms that are worth investing in.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,997 Location: Kitale
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To minimize risks,its not advisable to be exposed to any element that may pose the same. E.g,avoid all loss making companies,avoid companies whose management you cant trust-Dont trust Meral and Wamae. Avoid exposure to one sector.Try to have a footprint in specific sectors. G.O.K- its not advisable to be exposed here.Neither is it advisable to ignore all firms with gok interest.Safaricom and Kcb combined profit for 2015 and 2016 is kshs 48 bilion.When you choose to ignore this amount of money,what is it then that you want? My advise will be for one to construct a balanced portfolio which has interest on all profitable sectors of economy.Stick to what works well for you. What works for you may not work for me.and vice versa.In stocks,there is no perfection and neither do masters exist.Its a learning experience.Even warren Buffet is still learning! Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/30/2016 Posts: 217 Location: Talai
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Ebenyo wrote:To minimize risks,its not advisable to be exposed to any element that may pose the same.
E.g,avoid all loss making companies,avoid companies whose management you cant trust-Dont trust Meral and Wamae.
Avoid exposure to one sector.Try to have a footprint in specific sectors.
G.O.K- its not advisable to be exposed here.Neither is it advisable to ignore all firms with gok interest.Safaricom and Kcb combined profit for 2015 and 2016 is kshs 48 bilion.When you choose to ignore this amount of money,what is it then that you want?
My advise will be for one to construct a balanced portfolio which has interest on all profitable sectors of economy.Stick to what works well for you.
What works for you may not work for me.and vice versa.In stocks,there is no perfection and neither do masters exist.Its a learning experience.Even warren Buffet is still learning!
Uhuru said the other day... ni nini mbaya na watu. wako na maskio na hawasikii, wako na macho lakini hawaoni.. nini mnataka jameni.. nini tunataka.... I HAVE FOOD FOR THOUGHT HERE BWANA EBENYO...     Watch and Listen and Live
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,255 Location: Nairobi
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Safaricom is run by Vodafone. MJ was a Vodafone employee. BC also came from Vodafone. The CFOs are from Vodafone. 40% of Safcom is owned by Vodafone. I think GoK is 25%. @Snipermnoma - Which other GoK controlled firms are good in your view? Why? Like @Ebenyo said, don't trust Merali or Wamae either. Also Dinitz and Obure (Express and Olympia). A thief is always a thief. Good luck! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,255 Location: Nairobi
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Perhaps I am mistaken... http://linkis.com/co.ke/vUMnYGreedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,997 Location: Kitale
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VituVingiSana wrote:Safaricom is run by Vodafone. MJ was a Vodafone employee. BC also came from Vodafone. The CFOs are from Vodafone. 40% of Safcom is owned by Vodafone. I think GoK is 25%.
@Snipermnoma - Which other GoK controlled firms are good in your view? Why?
Like @Ebenyo said, don't trust Merali or Wamae either. Also Dinitz and Obure (Express and Olympia). A thief is always a thief.
Good luck! Chris Kirubi-i dont like the attitude of centum towards shareholders.Employees are benefiting more than shareholders. He bought kq shares to hype the market despite the company being in negative equity. Whats your comment on him @vvs? Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,255 Location: Nairobi
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Ebenyo wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Safaricom is run by Vodafone. MJ was a Vodafone employee. BC also came from Vodafone. The CFOs are from Vodafone. 40% of Safcom is owned by Vodafone. I think GoK is 25%.
@Snipermnoma - Which other GoK controlled firms are good in your view? Why?
Like @Ebenyo said, don't trust Merali or Wamae either. Also Dinitz and Obure (Express and Olympia). A thief is always a thief.
Good luck! Chris Kirubi-i dont like the attitude of centum towards shareholders.Employees are benefiting more than shareholders. He bought kq shares to hype the market despite the company being in negative equity. Whats your comment on him @vvs? Hard to say. Centum has done well under Mworia. He must have been paid per his performance contract. Kirubi bought KQ, not Centum so it was a personal decision. Take an interest in what Centum buys not what Kirubi claims to buy. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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VituVingiSana wrote:Safaricom is run by Vodafone. MJ was a Vodafone employee. BC also came from Vodafone. The CFOs are from Vodafone. 40% of Safcom is owned by Vodafone. I think GoK is 25%.
@Snipermnoma - Which other GoK controlled firms are good in your view? Why?
Like @Ebenyo said, don't trust Merali or Wamae either. Also Dinitz and Obure (Express and Olympia). A thief is always a thief.
Good luck! In my view there are three GoK firms worth investing in: KenyaRe is the best, KCB is decent and KenGen was decent but with recent happenings now only barely makes the cut. I stay away from all the others.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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snipermnoma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Safaricom is run by Vodafone. MJ was a Vodafone employee. BC also came from Vodafone. The CFOs are from Vodafone. 40% of Safcom is owned by Vodafone. I think GoK is 25%.
@Snipermnoma - Which other GoK controlled firms are good in your view? Why?
Like @Ebenyo said, don't trust Merali or Wamae either. Also Dinitz and Obure (Express and Olympia). A thief is always a thief.
Good luck! In my view there are three GoK firms worth investing in: KenyaRe is the best, KCB is decent and KenGen was decent but with recent happenings now only barely makes the cut. I stay away from all the others. This Kenyare thing has been a value trap for a while. Not sure despite all the rosy NAVs etc. if it will do well. Anyone done a DCF on KENYARE?
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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After reading a few comments in this thread, I am convinced that some wazuans do not know what a government controlled company is. The largest shareholder in KCB is the Treasury at 17% followed by NSSF at 6%. This puts government ownership at around 23%. This is not enough to control the company despite the notable influence. You should not classify KCB and Safaricom in the same basket as Kengen, KPLC, Kenya-Re etc. In Kenya Re for instance, government ownership was 60% which effectively means the government has the final say. Unless the government owns more than 50% of the company, only then would you classify it as a "government company". A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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VituVingiSana wrote:MadDoc wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. See how this guy makes wazuans miss out on the right buses Lipstick on a pig. Nothing has changed. If not today then tomorrow. Good luck. This is one stock where you veer from your fact based approach. Is it the management you don't trust or is it just irrational bias? Management & GoK's influence.Except for KenRe I stay away from GoK firms. It's a gut feeling. I may be wrong. It's not like Safcom (run by Vodafone) where it's the only choice in a rapidly growing sector. I have choices like Equity, NIC, I&M, StanChart, BBK, Co-op, etc. For obvious reasons I don't have NBK on the list. Good luck! After losing money in KQ, any firm in which GoK has a significant stake needs to be looked at twice. Perhaps my "fear of GoK" is irrational but so far it has saved me lots of money post-KQ. EAPCC vs Bamburi (even ARM > EAPCC). NBK vs any listed bank. The list is long but includes Uchumi, KPLC and KenGen. There's always an undercurrent that concerns me. Inflated tenders, political godfathers, favored appointments, etc. I have explained why I stick with KenRe in other threads BUT a whiff of stink and I will bail. The saving grace for KCB is its TBTF status and GoK/KCB will step in to protect it by bending the rules or offering equity/loans. But I like to sleep at night. Government does not own more than 50% of Safcom or KCB...so technically, it does not control those companies despite the huge influence by virtue of the number of shares. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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S.Mutaga III wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MadDoc wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:There is something about KCB that worries me. I do not trust their numbers. I think the CBK & Treasury are protecting KCB but the rot will show up some time!
If KCB went through a thorough review of all its loans, I think the NPLs will jump. My gut feeling. See how this guy makes wazuans miss out on the right buses Lipstick on a pig. Nothing has changed. If not today then tomorrow. Good luck. This is one stock where you veer from your fact based approach. Is it the management you don't trust or is it just irrational bias? Management & GoK's influence.Except for KenRe I stay away from GoK firms. It's a gut feeling. I may be wrong. It's not like Safcom (run by Vodafone) where it's the only choice in a rapidly growing sector. I have choices like Equity, NIC, I&M, StanChart, BBK, Co-op, etc. For obvious reasons I don't have NBK on the list. Good luck! After losing money in KQ, any firm in which GoK has a significant stake needs to be looked at twice. Perhaps my "fear of GoK" is irrational but so far it has saved me lots of money post-KQ. EAPCC vs Bamburi (even ARM > EAPCC). NBK vs any listed bank. The list is long but includes Uchumi, KPLC and KenGen. There's always an undercurrent that concerns me. Inflated tenders, political godfathers, favored appointments, etc. I have explained why I stick with KenRe in other threads BUT a whiff of stink and I will bail. The saving grace for KCB is its TBTF status and GoK/KCB will step in to protect it by bending the rules or offering equity/loans. But I like to sleep at night. Government does not own more than 50% of Safcom or KCB...so technically, it does not control those companies despite the huge influence by virtue of the number of shares. VVS u have been in this business for as long as a lot of us have. Im sure u understand gut feelings are mostly dangerous. Remember the stock ( the one obiero loves) that u fell in love with last and where lots of guts were involved too?
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